Summary

This is the operational runbook that turns a real-world earthquake into a CivOS control run.

It defines:

what data to ingest (ICL telemetry)
how to project the event into CivOS phase space
how to classify regimes (laminar / shear / turbulent)
how to estimate propagation rates (dP/dt, dB/dt, dK/dt, dZ/dt)
how to size recovery actions (minimum control input)

This runbook is written for any inland earthquake and includes a Kyoto instantiation.

🔒 Definition Lock Box

LOCK: Events are disturbance vectors applied to CivOS phase space.

LOCK: ICL telemetry converts narrative updates into control-grade state estimates.

LOCK: Recovery actions can be sized once state + rates are measurable.

Almost-Code Spec Block (Runbook v0.1)

			
SpecID: CivOS.Runbook.EQ.v0.1
Name: Earthquake Event Runbook (Inland, No Tsunami)
Type: Runbook
Parent: CivOS.ICL.Series
Input:
  EventDescriptor E
  TelemetryFrames TF[]
Output:
  RegimeClass R (Laminar|Shear|Turbulent)
  StateEstimate S_hat over Ω_civ
  RateEstimate dS/dt
  ControlPlan U_min (minimum actions to recover)

		

0) Event Descriptor (E)

			
EventDescriptor.EQ:
  event_type: EARTHQUAKE
  magnitude: Mw or Richter (if available)
  intensity: JMA_shindo (preferred) or inferred band
  epicenter: lat, lon
  depth_km: number|unknown
  time_utc: ISO8601
  footprint_place_ids: PlaceID[]
  tsunami: {none|possible|confirmed}   // for this runbook: none
  secondary_risks: {fire, landslide, industrial, dam, aftershock_high}

		

Rule.EQ.IntensityPreference:

			
If intensity (JMA_shindo) exists -> use intensity as primary shock input.
Else -> infer intensity band from magnitude + depth + footprint reports.

1) CivOS Projection: Ωᶜᶦᵛ = (X, Z, P, B, K, T)

1A) Domain Projection (X-axis)

Earthquakes always strike Infrastructure first, then cascade.

			
DomainPriority.EQ.Primary:
  INFRA  // power, water, gas, telecoms, buildings
  TRANS  // rail, roads, stations, logistics
  HLTH   // injuries, triage, hospital surge
  GOV    // command, coordination, public order
  LAW    // emergency enforcement, safety compliance
DomainPriority.EQ.Secondary:
  EDU    // school safety closures, childcare disruption
  FIN    // claims, liquidity, business continuity
  FAM    // housing displacement, caregiver strain
  CULT   // crowd pressure hotspots (tourism zones)
  PROD   // factories, supply chain interruptions

		

1B) Zoom Projection (Z-axis)

			
ZoomSet.EQ.Local:
  Z0: dependent nodes (children, frail elderly, inpatients)
  Z1: households/workers
  Z2: caregivers/teachers/nurses
  Z3: institutional stabilisers (hospital ops, police/fire leads, utility ops)
  Z4: city operators (grid control, transit control, shelter network)

		

2) Telemetry Intake (ICL)

This runbook consumes TelemetryFrames (CTS schema) plus event-specific feeds.

			
ICL.Intake.EQ.v0.1:
  RequiredFeeds:
    F1: SeismicIntensityByArea (JMA or equivalent)
    F2: PowerStatus (outage %, critical nodes)
    F3: WaterGasStatus (pressure / shutoff / leaks)
    F4: TelecomStatus (congestion, outages)
    F5: TransportStatus (rail lines halted, road closures)
    F6: MedicalStatus (injury surge, ED load, bed margin)
    F7: SafetyStatus (fires, building collapses, emergency calls)
    F8: ShelterStatus (open/occupancy, heat/cold exposure)
  OptionalFeeds:
    O1: AftershockForecastBand
    O2: Landslide/FireRiskMap
    O3: CrowdPressure (tourism density / event venues)

		

Rule.Intake.MinimumViable:

			
If only 4 items are available:
  use {F1 intensity, F2 power, F5 transport, F6 medical}
and run coarse regime + coarse recovery sizing.

3) Baseline State (Pre-shock)

We need the pre-event state estimate S0.

			
StateEstimate.S0:
  P0(X,Z)  // baseline reliability
  B0(X,Z)  // baseline buffers (Bt,Br,Bc,Bco,Bs)
  K0(X↔X', Z↔Z')  // baseline coupling matrix

Rule.Baseline.Default:

			
If S0 unknown:
  assume P0= P2 in core civic subsystems
  assume B0 = medium for Bt/Br/Bco, variable for Bs/Bc
  assume K0 high in TRANS and telecom, medium in INFRA, lower in EDU
Mark confidence low and update as TF arrives.

		

4) Regime Classification (Laminar / Shear / Turbulent)

Regime is determined by shock vs buffers + coupling escalation.

			
RegimeDecision.EQ:
  Let Shock(X,Z) be intensity-weighted disturbance.
  Let B_eff(X,Z) be effective buffer in that cell.
  Let K_eff be coupling escalation in affected corridors.
  If Shock <= B_eff across critical X in footprint:
    R = Laminar
  Else if Shock > B_eff in local footprint but K_eff does not spike:
    R = Shear (local)
  Else if Shock >> B_eff and K_eff spikes across multiple domains:
    R = Turbulent (cascade)

		

Critical domains for regime:

CriticalX := {INFRA, TRANS, HLTH, GOV}

5) Rate Estimation (Calculus Layer)

Compute the sign and rough magnitude of drift and recovery.

			
RateSet.EQ:
  dP/dt per (X,Z)
  dB/dt per (X,Z)
  dK/dt in key corridors (power, telecom, transport, hospitals)
  dZ/dt shear front propagation (downward to Z0, upward to Z4)
  dL/dt load spikes (ED load, call volume, commute congestion)

		

Rule.Rates.FastApprox:

			
If high-frequency telemetry unavailable:
  estimate rates via delta between consecutive situation reports:
    dP/dt ≈ (P_t2 - P_t1) / (t2 - t1)
  Use qualitative bins: {fast_drop, slow_drop, stable, recovering}

6) Minimum Control Plan (U_min): Recovery Sizing

This outputs what actions are required to restore laminar flow.

Control knobs

			
ControlKnobs.U:
  U1: Increase B (buffers)    // supplies, staff, shelters, comms, time slack
  U2: Reduce K (coupling)     // isolate, segment, reroute, stagger, island
  U3: Reduce L (load)         // restrict flows, defer demand, manage crowds
  U4: Raise Φr (regen rate)   // repair crews, mutual aid, rapid replacement
  U5: Protect Z0              // targeted support to dependent nodes

		

Prioritisation rules (earthquake)

			
PriorityRules.EQ:
  PR1: Stabilize INFRA to prevent cross-domain cascades.
  PR2: Keep HLTH below overload threshold (protect B_med).
  PR3: Protect Z0 immediately (avoid irreversible shear).
  PR4: Dampen TRANS + telecom congestion (reduce K, reduce L).
  PR5: Repair-routing: fix nodes that reduce K fastest (bridge nodes).

		

Output format:

			
U_min:
  actions: [ActionID...]
  target_cells: [(X,Z,PlaceID)...]
  urgency: {Immediate, 6h, 24h, 72h}
  expected_effect: {raise_B, reduce_K, reduce_L, raise_P}
  confidence: 0..1

		

Kyoto Instantiation (Template Example)

Kyoto Place Block

			
PlaceID: JPN.KYOTO.CITY
Population: ~1.46M  // source-dependent
Event: EQ Mw6.5 inland, no tsunami

Kyoto First-Pass Projection

			
Kyoto.PrimaryImpactCells:
  (INFRA, Z3-Z4, JPN.KYOTO.CITY)
  (TRANS, Z3-Z4, JPN.KYOTO.CITY)
  (HLTH,  Z3,    JPN.KYOTO.CITY)
  (FAM,   Z0-Z1, JPN.KYOTO.CITY)
Kyoto.HighSensitivityCells:
  (Z0 nodes in older housing clusters)
  (HLTH Z3 if hospital surge capacity thin)
  (TRANS Z4 if rail corridors halted for inspection)

		

Kyoto Regime Expectation (without telemetry)

			
ExpectedRegime:
  default -> Shear(local)
  turbulence triggers:
    - widespread power outage + telecom failure
    - major rail corridor shutdown across Kansai
    - hospital overload (ED + ICU saturation)

		

Kyoto U_min (Default First 6 Hours)

			
U_min.Kyoto.Default:
  A1: INFRA priority restore list (hospitals, comms, shelters, water pumps)
  A2: HLTH surge triage sites + inter-hospital diversion routing
  A3: Z0 welfare check net (elderly alone, inpatients, childcare nodes)
  A4: TRANS staged reopening + crowd control + clear comms to reduce K and L
  A5: Telecom congestion mitigation (public routing guidance, message-board channels)

		

Failure Mode Trace (Earthquake)

			
FailureTrace.EQ.001:
  EQ hits INFRA + TRANS
    -> K spikes (corridor congestion)
    -> HLTH load spikes (dL/dt high)
    -> B_med consumed (dB/dt negative)
    -> Z0 support collapses (dZ/dt downward)
    -> P drops into shear band (P1->P0 pockets)
    -> if INFRA not stabilized: cascade to turbulent regime

		

Completion Criteria (Return to Laminar)

			
LaminarReturnCriteria.EQ:
  INFRA: power/water/telecom stable in critical nodes
  HLTH: ED load below surge threshold (B_med no longer collapsing)
  TRANS: core corridors operational with managed load (K reduced)
  Z0: welfare checks completed + shelter network stable
  Rates: dP/dt >= 0 and dB/dt >= 0 for critical cells

		

Notes

This runbook is designed to:

work with partial data
improve automatically as TF arrives
output actionable control sizing instead of narrative summaries