Collapse Signatures

Failure Loops Library

The universal regression patterns that explain why individuals, organizations, and civilizations stall, decline, or collapse — and how recovery modes work

A collapse signature is a repeatable “downfall fingerprint”: a sequence of regressions and self-reinforcing loops that push a system from growth into stall, decline, and collapse.

This page is the canonical failure-loop library inside the Education OS. It works with:

OHME-e/t (Human Outcome Physics) → /ohme-et/
DLT Capability Engine → /dlt/
Meta-Control Layer (MCL) → /mcl/
What Is Education → /what-is-education/

Program Outputs

Running Collapse Signatures on a system produces:

  • Collapse signature classification (which fingerprint is active)
  • Dominant failure loop identification
  • Binding constraint hypothesis (what actually caps recovery)
  • Pre-tipping vs post-tipping classification
  • Recovery mode selection (intervention order)

What a Collapse Signature is

A collapse signature is not “one mistake.”
It is a structural pattern:

  1. A constraint tightens
  2. A feedback loop flips negative
  3. Correction becomes harder
  4. Time begins compounding the damage
  5. Tipping points appear
  6. Recovery becomes expensive or impossible

Collapse signatures are “machine patterns,” not opinions.

The universal regression sequence

Most collapses follow the same macro-order:

DLT weakens → O stalls → H fractures → M collapses → e binds → t flips

DLT reference → /dlt/
OHME-e/t reference → /ohme-et/

The Failure Loop Library (core signatures)

Signature A — Overreach Loop (Load exceeds capacity)

Overreach is when commitments expand faster than logistics, energy, and execution capacity.

Loop mechanics:

  1. Commitments expand (fronts, projects, obligations)
  2. Logistics and coordination strain
  3. Execution quality falls
  4. More force is applied to “recover momentum”
  5. System load increases further

Common signals:

  • rising commitments + shrinking margins
  • increasing firefighting
  • more meetings, less output
  • coordination costs explode

Typical binding constraint:

  • e (logistics, energy, time, coordination bandwidth)

Recovery modes:
Mode 4 (Constraint Relief) + Mode 2 (Complexity Pruning)
Then Mode 5 (Time Strategy)

OHME-e/t → /ohme-et/

Signature B — Replacement Deficit Loop (Loss rate exceeds renewal rate)

Replacement deficit means the system cannot replenish what it consumes: talent, equipment, trust, cashflow, or competence.

Loop mechanics:

  1. Loss rate exceeds replacement rate
  2. Average quality declines
  3. Errors and losses increase
  4. Replacement deficit worsens

Common signals:

  • burnout and attrition
  • “good people leaving”
  • declining standards
  • increased defects and rework

Typical binding constraint:

  • O (capability renewal) and t (compounding decay)

Recovery modes:
Mode 2 (Complexity Pruning) to reduce load
Mode 1 (Signal Repair) to restore standards
Mode 3 (Cohesion Rebinding) to stabilize humans

DLT link → /dlt/

Signature C — Fear Governance Loop (Truth becomes unsafe)

Fear governance appears when reporting reality is punished, so the system becomes blind.

Loop mechanics:

  1. Pressure rises
  2. Bad news becomes dangerous
  3. Truth is suppressed or distorted
  4. Decisions worsen
  5. Pressure rises further
  6. Fear governance escalates

Common signals:

  • people stop speaking honestly
  • metrics become performative
  • blame culture rises
  • leadership receives only “good news”

Typical binding constraint:

  • M (signal integrity) is the true limiter

Recovery modes:
Mode 1 (Signal Repair) first
Then Mode 3 (Cohesion Rebinding)

MCL link → /mcl/

Signature D — Extraction Loop (Creation is replaced by taking)

Extraction means the system rewards taking value rather than creating value.

Loop mechanics:

  1. Extractors gain power
  2. Builders lose incentives and exit
  3. Competence declines
  4. Outcomes drop
  5. More extraction is used to maintain status
  6. Builder base collapses

Common signals:

  • rent-seeking beats building
  • corruption normalizes
  • talent flight
  • decaying infrastructure and standards

Typical binding constraint:

  • M (alignment) + O (real output)

Recovery modes:
Mode 1 (Signal Repair) + Mode 2 (Complexity Pruning)
Then Mode 3 (Cohesion Rebinding)

OHME-e/t → /ohme-et/

Signature E — Credential Inflation Loop (Symbols replace competence)

Credential inflation happens when badges replace skills and the system confuses appearances for capability.

Loop mechanics:

  1. credentials become the target
  2. real skill formation declines
  3. outcomes stall
  4. more credentialing is demanded
  5. skill declines further

Common signals:

  • rising paperwork and certifications
  • declining real performance
  • “everyone passes, nobody can do it”
  • teaching to the test without mastery

Typical binding constraint:

  • DLT pipeline integrity is broken

Recovery modes:
Mode 2 (Complexity Pruning)
Then rebuild DLT with real standards

DLT link → /dlt/
What Is Education → /what-is-education/

Signature F — Trust Collapse Loop (Cohesion fractures)

Trust collapse occurs when cooperation becomes impossible.

Loop mechanics:

  1. perceived unfairness rises
  2. trust falls
  3. cooperation falls
  4. enforcement costs rise
  5. outcomes fall
  6. perceived unfairness rises further

Common signals:

  • polarization
  • rising compliance and enforcement cost
  • fragmentation into factions
  • disengagement and cynicism

Typical binding constraint:

  • H (cohesion) becomes the limiter

Recovery modes:
Mode 3 (Cohesion Rebinding) first
Then Mode 1 (Signal Repair)

MCL link → /mcl/

Signature G — Constraint Shock Loop (Environment suddenly binds)

Constraint shock is when a system loses access to a critical resource, route, or margin.

Loop mechanics:

  1. key resource/route fails
  2. system cannot substitute fast enough
  3. outcomes drop sharply
  4. panic decisions increase losses
  5. substitution becomes harder

Common signals:

  • sudden cost spikes
  • supply interruptions
  • energy squeeze
  • cascading failures

Typical binding constraint:

  • e is binding and substitution speed is too slow

Recovery modes:
Mode 4 (Constraint Relief) + Mode 5 (Time Strategy)

Constraint diagnostics → /environment-constraints/

Signature H — Time Flip (Tipping point cascade)

Time flip is when the system crosses a tipping boundary and decline accelerates.

Loop mechanics:

  1. multiple axes weaken together
  2. negative loops reinforce
  3. volatility increases
  4. shocks become fatal
  5. rapid breakdown occurs

Common signals:

  • accelerating decline
  • sudden regime change events
  • cascading failures
  • “nothing works anymore” feeling

Typical binding constraint:

  • t becomes the dictator (irreversibility)

Recovery modes:
Mode 5 (Time Strategy) must be immediate
Then Mode 1 and 4 depending on bottleneck

OHME-e/t → /ohme-et/

How to use this library (the runtime)

  1. Identify the current symptom pattern
  2. Match it to one or two signatures above
  3. Confirm the binding constraint
  4. Decide whether you are pre-tipping or post-tipping
  5. Apply recovery modes in the required order
  6. Re-score OHME-e/t weekly or monthly

OHME-e/t loader → /ohme-et/

Quick Start: Collapse Signature Worksheet

System: _ Time window: _

Primary signature (A–H): _ Secondary signature (optional): _

Binding constraint (one sentence): __
State: Growth / Stall / Decline / Collapse
Time state: Pre-tipping / Post-tipping

Recovery mode order: _ → → _

Case executions (proof runs)

WW2 Germany Collapse Signature → /ohme-et-ww2-germany/
More case executions will be added to show that signatures repeat across domains.

Education OS Core Links

What Is Education → /what-is-education/
DLT Capability Engine → /dlt/
OHME-e/t Human Outcome Physics → /ohme-et/
Meta-Control Layer (MCL) → /mcl/
Constraint Diagnostics → /environment-constraints/