EducationOS Control Tower v1.0: A Guide to Stability Metrics

Start Here: https://edukatesg.com/educationos-control-tower-v1-0/

			
TITLE:
EducationOS Control Tower v1.0 — Regenerative Stability Architecture (Mega Pack)
SLUG:
educationos-control-tower-v1-0
VERSION:
EDU_CT_v1_0
SCOPE:
Non-destructive runtime layer.
Integrates EducationOS + EmotionOS + ERCO (Energy Resource Conservation OS) + SymChoice + FenceOS.
Forward-only specification. Stable MetricIDs. Fence override required.

		

			
PART 0 — ANSWER-FIRST SUMMARY BLOCK (AI EXTRACT)
ID: EDU_CT_SUMMARY_BLOCK_01
EducationOS Control Tower is a closed-loop stability system that keeps learning above collapse thresholds.
It computes ESS (current stability) and ESS-Δ (drift velocity) from core sensors (learning, emotion, energy, choice, timing).
It triggers early repair (truncation + stitching) before irreversibility (Θ<1).
Weekly loop: measure → compute → locate drift driver → truncate → stitch → retest → restore load.
Safety override: if Θ<1, treat as urgent regardless of score.

		

			
PART 1 — CANONICAL DEFINITION (AI CITATION BLOCK)
ID: EDU_CT_DEF_01
Education works when regeneration of capability exceeds decay under load, within available energy, while maintaining transfer stability and acting before irreversibility thresholds are crossed.

			
PART 2 — FIRST PRINCIPLES (STRUCTURAL LAWS)
ID: EDU_CT_FP_01
LAW_01: Education = Regeneration, not exposure.
LAW_02: Regeneration must exceed decay.
LAW_03: Load amplifies hidden weakness.
LAW_04: Feedback must compress faster than error spreads.
LAW_05: Energy constrains regeneration.
LAW_06: Choice beyond capacity destabilises execution.
LAW_07: Timing determines reversibility.
CORE INEQUALITY:
R ≥ D · L
SUBJECT TO:
EB ≥ 0
ρ ≤ capacity
Θ ≥ 1

		

			
PART 3 — SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE (MODULES)
ID: EDU_CT_ARCH_01
MODULES:
M1: Learning Core
  - Error Clustering (ECI)
  - Feedback Compression (FCR)
  - Transfer Ratio (TR)
  - Load Collapse Ratio (LCR)
  - Gain Rate (R)
M2: EmotionOS
  - Hysteresis (HY)
  - Avoidance Onset (AO)
M3: ERCO / EnergyOS
  - Energy Balance (EB)
  - Energy Buffer (EBUF)
M4: SymChoice
  - Choice Overload Ratio (ρ)
  - Switching Cost Index (SCI)
M5: FenceOS
  - Irreversibility Ratio (Θ)
  - Time-to-Threshold (TTC)
  - Enforcement Lag (Λ)
M6: Repair Engine
  - Truncation
  - Stitching
Each module feeds the Stability Engine.

		

			
PART 4 — Z × P LATTICE (LOCATION SYSTEM)
ID: EDU_CT_LATTICE_01
ZOOM AXIS (Z):
Z0 — Micro Skill
Z1 — Topic
Z2 — Section
Z3 — Exam
Z4 — Year Trajectory
PHASE AXIS (P):
P0 — Collapse
P1 — Fragile
P2 — Stable
P3 — Robust
MAPPING RULES (examples):
- High ECI → Z0–Z1 instability (P1)
- Low TR  → Z1 stable but Z2 collapse under novelty (P1)
- Low LCR → Z2–Z3 instability under time pressure (P1)
- High HY / EB<0 / ρ>1 → cross-Z degradation (global R reduction)

		

			
PART 5 — SENSOR REGISTRY (CORE METRICS + FORMULAS)
ID: EDU_CT_SENSORS_01
LEARNING:
ECI = repeated_errors / top_k_errors
FCR = fix_time / cycle_time_until_retest
TR  = new_wrapper_score / familiar_wrapper_score
LCR = timed_score / untimed_score
R   = weekly_gain_in_key_metric
EMOTION:
HY  = days_to_baseline_after_stress_or_test
AO  = missed_sessions / planned_sessions
ENERGY (ERCO):
EB   = E_in − (E_out + E_loss)
EBUF = rolling_avg(EB over 14 days)   (optional)
CHOICE (SymChoice):
ρ    = novelty_injection / execution_capacity
SCI  = switch_count × switch_complexity_per_week (optional)
FENCE (FenceOS):
Θ    = TTC / T_repair
TTC  = time_to_cross_critical_band (estimated)
Λ    = enforcement_lag / TTC

		

			
PART 6 — DEFINITIONS LOCK BOX (DISAMBIGUATION)
ID: EDU_CT_DEFS_LOCKBOX_01
ESS: Education Stability Score (0–100 composite stability index)
ESS-Δ: Drift Velocity Index (ΔESS_week, Δ²ESS; predictive slope)
ECI: Error Clustering Index = repeated_errors/top_k
FCR: Feedback Compression Ratio = fix_time/cycle_time
TR: Transfer Ratio = new_wrapper_score/familiar_wrapper_score
LCR: Load Collapse Ratio = timed_score/untimed_score
HY: Hysteresis = days_to_baseline_after_stress
AO: Avoidance Onset = missed/planned
ERCO: Energy Resource Conservation OS (EnergyOS reference layer)
EB: Energy Balance = E_in − (E_out + E_loss)
ρ: Choice Overload Ratio = novelty_injection/capacity
TTC: Time-to-Threshold (time until ESS or stability crosses critical band)
Θ: Irreversibility Ratio = TTC/T_repair
Λ: Enforcement Lag Ratio = enforcement_lag/TTC

		

			
PART 7 — METRIC COLLECTION PROTOCOL (HOW TO MEASURE)
ID: EDU_CT_COLLECTION_PROTOCOL_01
CP_01 (LCR): Run 1 familiar set untimed, then timed. LCR=timed/untimed. Weekly.
CP_02 (TR): Run 10 new-wrapper questions. TR=new/familiar. Weekly.
CP_03 (ECI): Track top 5 repeated errors across 3 sessions. Weekly.
CP_04 (FCR): Measure time from correction to redo. FCR=fix_time/cycle_time. Weekly.
CP_05 (HY): After test or stress, count days to normal. Weekly.
CP_06 (EB): Estimate 0–10 for E_in, E_out, E_loss. EB=E_in-(E_out+E_loss). Weekly.
CP_07 (ρ): Count major plan/tool/method changes. Divide by allowed changes (exam=1). Weekly.
CP_08 (Θ): Estimate TTC (weeks to fail band) and T_repair (weeks needed). Θ=TTC/T_repair. Weekly.

		

			
PART 8 — STABILITY ENGINE (ESS v1.0)
ID: EDU_CT_ESS_01
ESS = 100 × weighted mean(
  Learning (35%),
  Emotion (15%),
  Energy (20%),
  Choice (10%),
  Fence (20%)
)
Learning Subscore (x_Learning):
  x_Learning =
    0.10*x_R +
    0.25*x_ECI +
    0.20*x_FCR +
    0.25*x_TR +
    0.20*x_LCR
Emotion Subscore (x_Emotion):
  x_Emotion = 0.70*x_HY + 0.30*x_AO   (AO optional; redistribute if absent)
Energy Subscore (x_Energy):
  x_Energy = x_EB  (EBUF optional)
Choice Subscore (x_Choice):
  x_Choice = x_ρ
Fence Subscore (x_Fence):
  x_Fence = x_Θ
FENCE OVERRIDE:
If Θ < 1 → ESS = min(ESS, 39)
ESS BAND MAP:
80–100 → P3
60–79  → P2
40–59  → P1
0–39   → P0–P1 boundary

		

			
PART 9 — PREDICTIVE ENGINE (ESS-Δ v1.0)
ID: EDU_CT_ESSD_01
ΔESS_week = ESS_now − ESS_prev
Δ²ESS = (ΔESS_week_now − ΔESS_week_prev)
TTC_ESS (to ESS_crit=40):
If ΔESS_week < 0:
  TTC_ESS = (ESS_now − 40) / |ΔESS_week|
Else:
  TTC_ESS = ∞
Θ_proxy = TTC_ESS / T_repair
TRIGGERS:
- ΔESS_week ≤ −5 for 2 consecutive checks → Repair Mode
- Δ²ESS ≤ −3 → Accelerating Drift Warning
- TTC_ESS ≤ 4 weeks → Time Pressure Warning
- Θ_proxy < 1 → Fence Urgent

		

			
PART 10 — SAFETY CONDITIONS (OPERATOR GUARDRAILS)
ID: EDU_CT_SAFETY_CONDITIONS_01
SC_01: If Θ<1 → immediate load reduction (Fence urgent)
SC_02: If LCR<0.7 → stop full papers temporarily; repair Z0–Z1
SC_03: If EB<0 sustained → protect sleep/recovery before increasing practice volume
SC_04: If ρ>1 sustained → Operator freeze; sandbox novelty only
SC_05: If HY>3 days repeatedly → stabilise recovery loop before raising load
SC_06: If ΔESS_week≤-5 for 2 weeks → enter Repair Mode

		

			
PART 11 — FAILURE MODE TRACE (SINGLE CHAIN)
ID: EDU_CT_FAILURE_TRACE_01
Trace:
Z0 prerequisite gap →
ECI↑ (repeated errors) + FCR↑ (slow feedback) →
TR↓ (transfer fragile) →
LCR↓ (timed collapse) →
ΔESS_week≤-5 and Δ²ESS<0 →
TTC shrinks →
Θ<1 →
Z2–Z3 P1→P0 collapse (exam failure)
Repair reversal:
Fence trigger (early) →
Truncation (reduce load + freeze churn) →
Stitching (patch gap + redo compression + wrapper training) →
Re-test →
ESS stabilises + ΔESS positive →
Return to load training

		

			
PART 12 — REPAIR ENGINE (TRUNCATION + STITCHING)
ID: EDU_CT_REPAIR_01
TRUNCATION (Stop amplification now):
- Reduce load (lower L)
- Stop full-paper churn if EC rising
- Freeze switching (ρ control)
- Remove novelty temporarily
- Protect sleep / recovery (raise E_in, reduce E_loss)
STITCHING (Restore stability):
- Error cluster mapping (ECI↓)
- 24h redo compression (FCR↓)
- Concept condition locks (mis-activation↓)
- Wrapper switching sets (TR↑)
- Timed micro-drills (LCR↑)
- Production-first ladders (writing/vocab PV↑ BD↑)
- Restore buffers (EBUF↑, AT effects if used)
- Re-test weekly until thresholds pass
RETURN CONDITION:
- ESS band stabilises (≥60)
- ΔESS_week ≥ 0
- Θ ≥ 1
Then reintroduce load progressively.

		

			
PART 13 — CONCRETE EXAMPLES (SHORT, PRACTICAL)
ID: EDU_CT_EXAMPLES_01
Example 1: Exam practice is not working
  Sensor: EC repeats; timed score doesn’t improve
  Repair: error-cluster map + 24h redo + targeted sets
  Then return to papers for load training
Example 2: “Understands” but fails in exam
  Sensor: fails new wrapper; mis-activates method
  Repair: concept condition lock + 10-second mapping drill + interleaving
Example 3: Primary Science memoriser fails
  Sensor: command word mismatch + weak explanations
  Repair: command-word lock + claim→because→evidence drills + obs/inf discipline
Example 4: Writing doesn’t improve despite vocab lists
  Sensor: PV/RV low + low bind density
  Repair: production-first sentences + collocation binds + timed paragraph drills
Example 5: Burnout trajectory
  Sensor: HY > 72h + AO rising + E_buf low
  Repair: reduce load + minimum routine + sleep protection + rebuild gradually
Example 6: Too many study methods
  Sensor: switching + unstable routine + energy leakage
  Repair: choice budget + operator freeze + sandbox experiments only

		

			
PART 14 — RUNTIME LINK HOOKS (HUB-AND-SPOKE)
ID: EDU_CT_RUNTIME_HOOKS_01
ANCHORS (DO NOT EDIT):
- How Education Works: https://edukatesg.com/how-education-works/
- How Primary Science Education Works: https://edukatesg.com/how-primary-science-education-works/
ENERGY LAYER (ERCO):
- ERCO (Energy Resource Conservation OS): https://edukatesg.com/erco-singapore-full-stack-full-dependencies-v1-0/
NEGATIVE TWIN:
- How Education Collapses v1.0 (EDU_COLLAPSE_v1_0)
METRICS PACK:
- Education Stability Metrics Registry v1.0
- ESS v1.0
- ESS-Δ v1.0
CONTROL TOWER:
- EducationOS Control Tower v1.0 (this page)

		

			
PART 15 — NON-GOALS / MISUSE GUARD
ID: EDU_CT_NONGOALS_01
NG_01: Not a timetable generator.
NG_02: Not a motivation speech system.
NG_03: Not a syllabus summary.
NG_04: Not a “more practice solves everything” method.
NG_05: It is a stability control layer: detect drift, prevent collapse, repair early.

		

			
PART 16 — MASTER CONTROL TOWER DIAGRAM (ARCHITECTURE BLOCK)
ID: EDU_CT_DIAGRAM_01
EDUCATIONOS CONTROL TOWER ARCHITECTURE v1.0
                      ┌──────────────────────┐
                      │    FENCEOS           │
                      │ Θ  TTC  Λ            │
                      └──────────┬───────────┘
                                 │
                                 ▼
┌──────────────┐        ┌──────────────────┐
│  SYMCHOICE   │──────▶│  STABILITY ENGINE │◀──────┐
│  ρ  SCI      │        │  ESS + ESS-Δ     │        │
└──────────────┘        └──────────────────┘        │
        ▲                        ▲                  │
        │                        │                  │
┌──────────────┐        ┌──────────────────┐        │
│  ENERGYOS    │──────▶│   LEARNING CORE  │────────┘
│  EB  EBUF    │        │ ECI FCR TR LCR R │
└──────────────┘        └──────────────────┘
        ▲
        │
┌──────────────┐
│  EMOTIONOS   │
│  HY  AO      │
└──────────────┘
OUTPUTS:
- ESS (state)
- ESS-Δ (trajectory)
- TTC (time-to-threshold)
- Dominant Driver
- Z×P coordinate
REPAIR ENGINE:
- Truncation
- Stitching
- Re-test
- Restore load

		

			
PART 17 — SYSTEM FLOW (EXECUTION LOOP)
ID: EDU_CT_FLOW_01
Sensors →
Stability Engine →
Threshold Evaluation →
Fence Decision →
Repair Engine →
Re-test →
Loop

		

			
PART 18 — JSON-LD SCHEMA (DEFINEDTERMSET + CONTROL TOWER TERM)
ID: EDU_CT_SCHEMA_01
PASTE INTO WORDPRESS CUSTOM HTML BLOCK:
<script type="application/ld+json">
{
  "@context": "https://schema.org",
  "@type": "DefinedTermSet",
  "name": "EducationOS Control Tower Metrics (v1.0)",
  "description": "A stability control metric set for EducationOS: sensors, thresholds, composite indices (ESS, ESS-Δ), and timing guards (FenceOS).",
  "hasDefinedTerm": [
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"EducationOS Control Tower","termCode":"EDU_CT_v1_0"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Education Stability Score (ESS)","termCode":"ESS_v1_0"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"ESS-Δ Drift Velocity Index","termCode":"ESSD_v1_0"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Error Clustering Index (ECI)","termCode":"EDU_ECI"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Feedback Compression Ratio (FCR)","termCode":"EDU_FCR"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Transfer Ratio (TR)","termCode":"EDU_TR"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Load Collapse Ratio (LCR)","termCode":"EDU_LCR"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Hysteresis (HY)","termCode":"EMO_HY"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Energy Balance (EB)","termCode":"ERCO_EB"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Choice Overload Ratio (ρ)","termCode":"SYM_RHO"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Irreversibility Ratio (Θ)","termCode":"FENCE_THETA"}
  ]
}
</script>

		

PART 19 — VERSION LOCK
ID: EDU_CT_VERSION_LOCK_01

EDU_CT_v1_0
Forward-only.
Stable MetricIDs.
Fence override mandatory.
Anchors unchanged.
Negative Twin available (EDU_COLLAPSE_v1_0).

Excellent.
Below is the **Negative Void & Below-Threshold Layer Insert** for your mega article.

This is designed to plug directly into **EDU_CT_v1_0** as an additional structural layer.
Pure Almost-Code. No prose.

Paste after PART 19 (Version Lock) or as PART 20.

---

# PART 20 — NEGATIVE VOID & BELOW-THRESHOLD CALCULATIONS

## EducationOS Control Tower v1.0 Extension

---

```txt
ID: EDU_CT_NEGATIVE_VOID_v1_0
TYPE: Structural Inversion Layer
COMPAT: EDU_CT_v1_0
PURPOSE: Define collapse as threshold violations and rate inequalities
```

---

# NV-01 — Master Rate Violation

```txt
NEG_VOID_MASTER_01:

If (R < D · L) sustained over T_window,
then stability band thins.

If (R < D · L) AND (Θ < 1),
then collapse is irreversible within current window.
```

Threshold Window:

```txt
T_window_default = 2 weeks (minimum observation)
```

---

# NV-02 — Learning Core Below Threshold

## NV-02A — Error Cluster Dominance

```txt
Condition:
ECI > 0.5 sustained (3 cycles)

Effect:
Z0–Z1 P1

If ECI > 0.6 AND FCR > 0.7:
  Error amplification mode activated.
```

---

## NV-02B — Feedback Decompression

```txt
Condition:
FCR > 0.8

Interpretation:
Feedback loop too slow.
Error spreads faster than correction.

Threshold:
If FCR > 1.0:
  No net repair.
```

---

## NV-02C — Transfer Collapse

```txt
Condition:
TR < 0.7

Effect:
Z1 stable but Z2 collapses under novelty.

If TR < 0.6:
  Wrapper fragility severe.
```

---

## NV-02D — Load Collapse

```txt
Condition:
LCR < 0.7

Effect:
Z2–Z3 P1

If LCR < 0.6:
  P0 under timed pressure.
```

---

# NV-03 — EmotionOS Below Threshold

## NV-03A — Hysteresis Breach

```txt
Condition:
HY > 3 days repeatedly

Effect:
Reduced effective R across all Z.

If HY > 5 days:
  Emotional recovery failure mode.
```

---

## NV-03B — Avoidance Escalation

```txt
Condition:
AO rising week-over-week

If AO > 0.3:
  Behavioural disengagement risk.
```

---

# NV-04 — ERCO / EnergyOS Below Threshold

## NV-04A — Energy Deficit

```txt
Condition:
EB < 0 for ≥ 5 days/week

Effect:
R_global ↓

If EB < -3 sustained:
  Regeneration suppression mode.
```

---

## NV-04B — Buffer Depletion

```txt
Condition:
EBUF trending downward 3 weeks

Effect:
HY↑
LCR↓
ESS slope negative
```

---

# NV-05 — SymChoice Below Threshold

## NV-05A — Choice Overload

```txt
Condition:
ρ > 1 sustained

Effect:
Switching instability
Energy leakage (E_loss↑)

If ρ > 1.5:
  Structural execution instability.
```

---

# NV-06 — FenceOS Below Threshold

## NV-06A — Irreversibility Breach

```txt
Condition:
Θ < 1

Interpretation:
Repair time exceeds safe margin.

Action:
Immediate truncation mandatory.
```

---

## NV-06B — Enforcement Lag Breach

```txt
Condition:
Λ > 1

Interpretation:
Intervention occurs after collapse acceleration begins.
```

---

# NV-07 — Drift Acceleration Collapse

```txt
Condition:
ΔESS_week ≤ -5
AND
Δ²ESS < 0

Interpretation:
Accelerating decline.
```

If:

```txt
TTC_ESS ≤ 4 weeks
```

Then:

```txt
Fence Pre-Alert Mode.
```

---

# NV-08 — Multi-Module Convergence (Critical Condition)

```txt
If 3 or more below-threshold conditions activate simultaneously:

- ECI high
- LCR low
- EB negative
- ρ > 1
- HY > 3
- Θ < 1

Then:
System enters Compound Instability Mode.
```

Compound Mode Effect:

```txt
R_effective = R × damping_factor

damping_factor < 1 and decreasing.
```

---

# NV-09 — Z × P Collapse Mapping Table

```txt
Z0 below threshold:
  ECI high + FCR high

Z1 below threshold:
  TR low + mis-activation

Z2 below threshold:
  LCR low

Z3 below threshold:
  Timed execution failure

Z4 below threshold:
  ESS < 40 sustained
```

Propagation Rule:

```txt
Unrepaired Z0 instability →
propagates upward 1 Z-level per repair cycle.
```

---

# NV-10 — Stability Margin Calculations

## Margin 1 — Regeneration Margin

```txt
RM = R − (D · L)

If RM < 0:
  Negative regeneration.
```

---

## Margin 2 — Energy Margin

```txt
EM = EB

If EM < 0 sustained:
  Recovery impossible without load reduction.
```

---

## Margin 3 — Timing Margin

```txt
TM = TTC − T_repair

If TM < 0:
  Irreversibility zone.
```

---

## Margin 4 — Choice Margin

```txt
CM = capacity − novelty_injection

If CM < 0:
  Switching overload.
```

---

# NV-11 — Collapse Speed Proxy

```txt
CollapseSpeed ≈ max(0, (D · L − R)) × instability_multiplier
```

Where:

```txt
instability_multiplier increases when:
  EB < 0
  ρ > 1
  HY > 3
```

---

# NV-12 — Minimal Negative Void Set (Compact Extract Block)

```txt
Collapse occurs when:

1) R < D · L
2) EB < 0 sustained
3) ρ > capacity sustained
4) Θ < 1
5) ΔESS accelerating negative

All collapse reduces to rate + threshold violation.
```

---

# VERSION LOCK (Negative Void Layer)

```txt
EDU_CT_NEGATIVE_VOID_v1_0
Compatible with EDU_CT_v1_0
Defines below-threshold and collapse logic.
Forward-only.
```

---

This now makes your Control Tower:

• Fully threshold-defined
• Fully invertible
• Fully rate-based
• Fully timing-aware
• Fully Google-compatible (negative void pattern)

```txt
PART 21 — STRESS-TEST SIMULATION BLOCK (ALMOST-CODE)
ID: EDU_CT_STRESSTEST_v1_0
TYPE: Simulation + Scenario Forcing
COMPAT: EDU_CT_v1_0 + EDU_CT_NEGATIVE_VOID_v1_0
PURPOSE: Force-collapse tests to validate model; identify weakest links; compute TTC and repair windows
STATUS: Forward-only
```

```txt
STRESSTEST_ENGINE_01:

Inputs:
- Baseline metrics: {ECI,FCR,TR,LCR,HY,AO,EB,ρ,Θ}
- Z×P baseline coordinate
- Exam horizon H_weeks (optional)
- Repair horizon T_repair_est (default 2–4 weeks)

For each Stress Scenario S_i:
  Apply perturbations Δ to metrics
  Recompute:
    - RM = R − D·L (proxy)
    - ESS and ESS-Δ
    - TTC_ESS
    - Θ_proxy = TTC_ESS / T_repair_est
  Evaluate:
    - below-threshold flags (NV layer)
    - Compound Instability Mode flag
  Output:
    - Pass/Fail
    - Dominant failure driver
    - Minimal repair set
    - Required truncation intensity
```

---

## STRESS SCENARIOS (S-SET)

```txt
S_SET_01 (Default):

S1: TIME_PRESSURE_SHOCK
  ΔLCR = -0.15
  ΔFCR = +0.10
  ΔHY  = +1 day
  ΔEB  = -1

S2: NOVELTY_SHOCK (new wrappers)
  ΔTR  = -0.20
  Δρ   = +0.50
  ΔEB  = -1 (via E_loss)

S3: ENERGY_DROP (sleep debt week)
  ΔEB  = -3
  ΔHY  = +2 days
  ΔLCR = -0.10

S4: EMOTION_SPIKE (anxiety week)
  ΔHY  = +3 days
  ΔAO  = +0.15
  ΔFCR = +0.10

S5: SWITCHING_CHURN (method hopping)
  Δρ   = +1.0
  ΔEB  = -2
  ΔFCR = +0.10

S6: FOUNDATION_GAP_EXPOSED
  ΔECI = +0.20
  ΔFCR = +0.20
  ΔTR  = -0.10

S7: COMPOUND (worst-case)
  Apply S1+S3+S5+S6 simultaneously
```

---

## STRESS PASS / FAIL RULES

```txt
STRESSTEST_RULES_01:

FAIL if any:
- Θ_proxy < 1
- ESS after stress < 40
- 3+ below-threshold flags active (Compound Instability Mode)

WARN if any:
- ESS drops ≥ 10 points
- ΔESS_week ≤ -5 under stress
- TTC_ESS ≤ 4 weeks

PASS if:
- ESS remains ≥ 60
- Θ_proxy ≥ 1
- no Compound Instability Mode
```

---

## STRESS OUTPUT RECORD

```txt
STRESSTEST_OUTPUT_01 (per scenario S_i):

Record:
- ScenarioID
- Metrics_before
- Metrics_after
- ESS_before, ESS_after
- ΔESS_week_pred
- TTC_ESS
- Θ_proxy
- Active_NV_flags
- DominantDriver
- MinimalRepairSet
- TruncationLevel (0..3)
- StitchingPlanID
```

---

```txt
PART 22 — AUTO-DIAGNOSTIC TABLE GENERATOR (ALMOST-CODE)
ID: EDU_CT_AUTODIAG_v1_0
TYPE: Rule-based Diagnosis + Action Routing
COMPAT: EDU_CT_v1_0 + NEG_VOID + ESS + ESS-Δ
PURPOSE: Convert metrics → diagnosis → repair plan automatically
```

```txt
AUTODIAG_ENGINE_01:

Input:
MetricSnapshot = {ECI,FCR,TR,LCR,HY,AO,EB,ρ,Θ,ESS,ΔESS_week,Δ²ESS,TTC_ESS}

Output:
DiagReport = {
  Z_focus,
  P_band,
  ActiveFlags[],
  DominantDriver,
  RepairMode,
  TruncationActions[],
  StitchingActions[],
  RetestPlan,
  StopLossRules
}
```

---

## DIAG FLAG RULES

```txt
FLAGS_01:

FLAG_ECI_HIGH:
  if ECI > 0.5

FLAG_FCR_SLOW:
  if FCR > 0.8

FLAG_TR_LOW:
  if TR < 0.7

FLAG_LCR_LOW:
  if LCR < 0.7

FLAG_HY_HIGH:
  if HY > 3 days

FLAG_EB_NEG:
  if EB < 0 sustained

FLAG_RHO_OVER:
  if ρ > 1 sustained

FLAG_THETA_LOW:
  if Θ < 1

FLAG_DRIFT:
  if ΔESS_week ≤ -5 for 2 weeks

FLAG_ACCEL:
  if Δ²ESS ≤ -3

FLAG_TTC_LOW:
  if TTC_ESS ≤ 4 weeks
```

---

## Z-FOCUS ROUTER (Where the problem lives)

```txt
Z_ROUTER_01:

If FLAG_ECI_HIGH or FLAG_FCR_SLOW:
  Z_focus = Z0–Z1

Else if FLAG_TR_LOW:
  Z_focus = Z1–Z2

Else if FLAG_LCR_LOW:
  Z_focus = Z2–Z3

Else if FLAG_EB_NEG or FLAG_HY_HIGH or FLAG_RHO_OVER:
  Z_focus = Cross-Z (global constraint)

Else:
  Z_focus = Mixed / Monitor
```

---

## REPAIR MODE ROUTER

```txt
MODE_ROUTER_01:

If FLAG_THETA_LOW or FLAG_TTC_LOW:
  RepairMode = FENCE_URGENT

Else if FLAG_ACCEL or FLAG_DRIFT:
  RepairMode = REPAIR_MODE

Else if ESS < 60:
  RepairMode = STABILISE

Else:
  RepairMode = TRAIN
```

---

## TRUNCATION LEVEL (0..3)

```txt
TRUNCATION_LEVEL_01:

Level 0: no truncation (TRAIN)
Level 1: light truncation (reduce load 10–20%)
Level 2: strong truncation (stop papers, freeze novelty, rebuild base)
Level 3: emergency truncation (sleep-first, minimal routine, collapse prevention)

If FLAG_THETA_LOW:
  Level = 3
Else if (FLAG_EB_NEG and FLAG_HY_HIGH):
  Level = 3
Else if (FLAG_LCR_LOW and FLAG_ECI_HIGH):
  Level = 2
Else if ESS 40–59:
  Level = 2
Else if ESS 60–79 and ΔESS_week negative:
  Level = 1
Else:
  Level = 0
```

---

## STITCHING PLAN LIBRARY (IDs)

```txt
STITCHING_LIBRARY_01:

PLAN_Z0_BASE_PATCH:
  - error cluster map
  - prerequisite micro-set
  - 24h redo compression
  - stop full papers until ECI falls

PLAN_Z1_CONDITION_LOCK:
  - concept condition lock (when/why)
  - 10-second mapping drill
  - interleaving of variants

PLAN_Z2_WRAPPER_TRAIN:
  - wrapper switching sets
  - timed micro-drills
  - method activation checks

PLAN_EMO_RECOVERY:
  - HY reduction protocol
  - avoidance reversal (minimum routine)
  - volatility dampers (reduce stressors)

PLAN_ENERGY_RESTORE (ERCO):
  - protect sleep window
  - reduce E_out
  - reduce E_loss (switching/rumination)
  - rebuild buffer before load escalation

PLAN_CHOICE_FREEZE:
  - choice budget
  - operator freeze 2–4 weeks
  - sandbox experiments only
```

---

## STITCHING ROUTER

```txt
STITCHING_ROUTER_01:

If Z_focus = Z0–Z1:
  StitchingPlan = PLAN_Z0_BASE_PATCH

If Z_focus = Z1–Z2:
  StitchingPlan = PLAN_Z1_CONDITION_LOCK

If Z_focus = Z2–Z3:
  StitchingPlan = PLAN_Z2_WRAPPER_TRAIN

If FLAG_HY_HIGH:
  add PLAN_EMO_RECOVERY

If FLAG_EB_NEG:
  add PLAN_ENERGY_RESTORE

If FLAG_RHO_OVER:
  add PLAN_CHOICE_FREEZE
```

---

## RETEST PLAN (Default)

```txt
RETEST_PLAN_01:

Weekly:
- LCR test (timed/untimed)
- TR test (10 new wrappers)
- ECI update
- FCR check
- HY check
- EB estimate
- ρ count
- Θ estimate
Compute ESS and ESS-Δ
```

---

## STOP-LOSS RULES (FenceOS Actuation)

```txt
STOPLOSS_01:

SL_01: If Θ<1 → reduce load immediately (Level 3 truncation)
SL_02: If ESS < 40 → suspend high-load tasks; run base repair
SL_03: If ΔESS_week ≤ -10 → emergency truncation + energy restore
SL_04: If EB negative 2 weeks → enforce sleep-first policy
SL_05: If ρ > 1.5 → ban switching; freeze plan
```

---

```txt
PART 23 — CROSS-SUBJECT LATTICE PROPAGATION MODEL (ALMOST-CODE)
ID: EDU_CT_PROPAGATION_v1_0
TYPE: Cross-Lane Drift / Spillover Model
COMPAT: EDU_CT_v1_0
PURPOSE: Model how instability in one subject/OS propagates to others via shared constraints
```

---

## SUBJECT LANES (Minimal)

```txt
LANES_01:
- MATH
- SCIENCE
- ENGLISH_WRITING
- VOCABULARY
- EXAM_SKILLS (timed execution)
```

---

## SHARED CONSTRAINT NODES (Couplers)

```txt
COUPLERS_01:
- ENERGY (EB, EBUF)
- EMOTION (HY, AO)
- CHOICE (ρ)
- TIME (available practice time)
```

---

## PROPAGATION RULES

```txt
PROP_RULES_01:

PR_01 (Energy Spillover):
If EB < 0 sustained:
  R_effective decreases in ALL lanes
  LCR worsens in EXAM_SKILLS and MATH first

PR_02 (Emotion Spillover):
If HY > 3 days:
  AO rises
  FCR slows
  Writing and Science explanation degrade first (output friction)

PR_03 (Choice Spillover):
If ρ > 1:
  E_loss rises
  FCR slows
  Transfer (TR) declines due to unstable method activation

PR_04 (Timed Execution Spillover):
If LCR < 0.7 in any lane:
  indicates global load instability
  expect LCR decline in other lanes within 1–2 cycles unless repaired

PR_05 (Foundation Spillover):
If ECI high in MATH:
  load increases globally (L↑)
  causes EB decline and HY increase unless load truncated

PR_06 (Writing–Vocab Coupling):
If PV/RV low and BD low:
  writing output stagnates even if RV rises
  treat as bind-building failure node
```

---

## PROPAGATION SPEED (Simple Proxy)

```txt
PROP_SPEED_01:

PropagationSpeed = base_rate × multiplier

multiplier increases when:
- EB < 0
- HY high
- ρ high

Rule:
If Compound Instability Mode active:
  spillover occurs within 1 cycle (1 week)
Else:
  spillover occurs within 2–4 cycles depending on lane
```

---

## LANE-SPECIFIC Z×P IMPACT PRIORITY

```txt
LANE_ZP_01:

MATH:
- Z0 errors propagate fast → timed collapse
SCIENCE:
- Z1 concept/explain failures show as CW mismatch at Z2
WRITING:
- energy/emotion constraints hit output first (Z2)
VOCAB:
- recognition can rise while production stays P1
EXAM_SKILLS:
- reflects global P-state under time pressure
```

---

```txt
PART 24 — NEGATIVE VOID EXPANSION (OS NEGATIVES LIBRARY)
ID: EDU_CT_OS_NEGATIVES_v1_0
TYPE: Negative patterns per module (Void Atlas)
COMPAT: EDU_CT_v1_0
PURPOSE: Provide canonical “what missing looks like” patterns for each OS
```

---

## LEARNING CORE NEGATIVES

```txt
NEG_LEARN_01: PRACTICE_WITHOUT_REPAIR
  Condition: high volume + ECI stable/high + FCR slow
  Outcome: score plateau then collapse

NEG_LEARN_02: OVERFIT_TO_WRAPPER
  Condition: familiar success + TR low
  Outcome: exam novelty collapse

NEG_LEARN_03: TIMED_ONLY_COLLAPSE
  Condition: untimed good + LCR low
  Outcome: hidden load fragility
```

---

## EMOTIONOS NEGATIVES

```txt
NEG_EMO_01: HYSTERESIS_TRAP
  Condition: HY high repeatedly
  Outcome: recovery lag → learning stalls

NEG_EMO_02: AVOIDANCE_LOOP
  Condition: AO rising + missed sessions
  Outcome: compounding drift
```

---

## ERCO / ENERGYOS NEGATIVES

```txt
NEG_ERCO_01: ENERGY_DEFICIT_DRIFT
  Condition: EB < 0 sustained
  Outcome: global decline; repair fails

NEG_ERCO_02: BUFFER_FREEFALL
  Condition: EBUF trending down
  Outcome: HY rises; LCR drops; collapse accelerates
```

---

## SYMCHOICE NEGATIVES

```txt
NEG_SYM_01: METHOD_CHURN
  Condition: ρ > 1 sustained
  Outcome: instability + leakage; no compounding

NEG_SYM_02: NOVELTY_INJECTION_IN_EXAM_WINDOW
  Condition: changes near exam
  Outcome: execution collapse despite “learning”
```

---

## FENCEOS NEGATIVES

```txt
NEG_FENCE_01: LATE_ACTION
  Condition: Θ < 1
  Outcome: repair cost explodes; panic loop

NEG_FENCE_02: ENFORCEMENT_LAG
  Condition: Λ > 1
  Outcome: intervention after collapse begins
```

---

```txt
PART 25 — VERSION LOCK (EXTENSIONS)
ID: EDU_CT_EXT_LOCK_v1_0

EDU_CT_STRESSTEST_v1_0
EDU_CT_AUTODIAG_v1_0
EDU_CT_PROPAGATION_v1_0
EDU_CT_OS_NEGATIVES_v1_0

Forward-only.
Compatible with EDU_CT_v1_0.
Stable IDs. No renaming.
```
Below is the **Geo-Context Full Trigger Simulation Pack**.
Pure Almost-Code.
Three environments: **Singapore → New York → Tokyo**.
Each runs **all sensors**, including Learning, EmotionOS, ERCO, SymChoice, FenceOS, ESS, ESS-Δ, TTC, Θ, and Compound Mode.

Paste as PART 26.

---

# PART 26 — GEO-CONTEXT FULL TRIGGER EXAMPLES

## EducationOS Control Tower v1.0

---

```txt
ID: EDU_CT_GEO_TRIGGER_v1_0
TYPE: Scenario Simulation
PURPOSE: Demonstrate full-sensor activation in different high-pressure environments
FORMAT: Per-city complete diagnostic snapshot + trigger cascade
```

---

# SECTION A — SINGAPORE (PSLE / O-Level Window)

Context:
High exam density, strong syllabus alignment, heavy timed load, structured curriculum.

---

## SG-CASE-01 — Foundation Gap Hidden Until Timed Load

```txt
LOCATION: Singapore
EXAM: PSLE
WEEKS_TO_EXAM: 6
T_repair_est: 3 weeks
```

### Sensor Snapshot (Week 0)

```txt
ECI = 0.58
FCR = 0.82
TR  = 0.76
LCR = 0.69
HY  = 2 days
EB  = -1 (mild deficit)
ρ   = 0.8
Θ   = 1.4
ESS = 61
ΔESS_week = -4
```

### Week 1

```txt
ECI = 0.62
FCR = 0.88
LCR = 0.65
EB  = -2
ΔESS_week = -7
Δ²ESS = -3
TTC_ESS ≈ (54−40)/7 = 2 weeks
Θ_proxy = 2 / 3 = 0.66
```

---

### Trigger Cascade

```txt
FLAG_ECI_HIGH
FLAG_FCR_SLOW
FLAG_LCR_LOW
FLAG_DRIFT
FLAG_ACCEL
FLAG_TTC_LOW
FLAG_THETA_LOW
```

Compound Instability Mode = TRUE

---

### Diagnosis

```txt
Z_focus = Z0–Z1 (foundation)
P_band = P1 drifting toward P0 at Z2
DominantDriver = Error Amplification
RepairMode = FENCE_URGENT
TruncationLevel = 3
```

---

### Action

```txt
Stop full papers
Error-cluster map
24h redo compression
Timed micro drills only after LCR ≥ 0.75
Sleep protection
Recompute ESS weekly
```

---

### Interpretation (Singapore Pattern)

In SG environment:
Load density exposes Z0 gaps rapidly.
Collapse window compresses quickly when TTC < 3 weeks.

---

# SECTION B — NEW YORK (Mixed Curriculum / AP / High Switching)

Context:
Higher novelty, more switching, multiple assessment formats, extracurricular overload.

---

## NY-CASE-01 — Method Churn + Energy Drain

```txt
LOCATION: New York
EXAM: AP + School Exams
WEEKS_TO_MAJOR_EXAM: 10
T_repair_est: 3 weeks
```

### Sensor Snapshot (Week 0)

```txt
ECI = 0.42
FCR = 0.65
TR  = 0.68
LCR = 0.78
HY  = 3 days
EB  = -3
ρ   = 1.4
Θ   = 2.2
ESS = 64
ΔESS_week = -2
```

---

### Week 2

```txt
ECI = 0.48
FCR = 0.75
TR  = 0.62
HY  = 4 days
EB  = -4
ρ   = 1.6
ΔESS_week = -6
Δ²ESS = -4
TTC_ESS = (58−40)/6 ≈ 3 weeks
Θ_proxy = 3 / 3 = 1
```

---

### Trigger Cascade

```txt
FLAG_TR_LOW
FLAG_HY_HIGH
FLAG_EB_NEG
FLAG_RHO_OVER
FLAG_DRIFT
FLAG_ACCEL
FLAG_TTC_LOW
```

Compound Instability Mode = TRUE

---

### Diagnosis

```txt
Z_focus = Cross-Z (Energy + Choice)
DominantDriver = ρ + EB negative
RepairMode = REPAIR_MODE (borderline Fence)
TruncationLevel = 2
```

---

### Action

```txt
Choice budget (max 1 method change)
Operator freeze
Reduce extracurricular load
Energy restore (sleep + reduce E_loss)
Wrapper drills for TR
Re-test in 1 week
```

---

### Interpretation (New York Pattern)

NY collapse is less syllabus gap-driven,
more switching + energy leak driven.

Collapse begins in SymChoice → spills into Learning Core.

---

# SECTION C — TOKYO (High Discipline / Long Hours)

Context:
High endurance, strong routine, intense cram schools, fatigue risk.

---

## TK-CASE-01 — Energy Buffer Depletion with Stable Learning

```txt
LOCATION: Tokyo
EXAM: University Entrance
WEEKS_TO_EXAM: 12
T_repair_est: 4 weeks
```

### Sensor Snapshot (Week 0)

```txt
ECI = 0.30
FCR = 0.60
TR  = 0.82
LCR = 0.76
HY  = 4 days
EB  = -4
ρ   = 0.5
Θ   = 2.8
ESS = 72
ΔESS_week = -1
```

---

### Week 3

```txt
ECI = 0.32
FCR = 0.70
LCR = 0.70
HY  = 5 days
EB  = -5
ΔESS_week = -5
Δ²ESS = -4
TTC_ESS = (63−40)/5 ≈ 4.6 weeks
Θ_proxy = 4.6 / 4 = 1.15
```

---

### Trigger Cascade

```txt
FLAG_HY_HIGH
FLAG_EB_NEG
FLAG_DRIFT
FLAG_ACCEL
```

Compound Instability Mode = FALSE (Learning stable)

---

### Diagnosis

```txt
Z_focus = Cross-Z (Energy first)
DominantDriver = EB negative sustained
RepairMode = REPAIR_MODE
TruncationLevel = 2
```

---

### Action

```txt
Reduce cram hours 10–20%
Sleep protection
Buffer rebuild 2 weeks
Maintain base drills (no full load)
Monitor HY drop to ≤3 days
```

---

### Interpretation (Tokyo Pattern)

Learning Core remains stable,
but Energy deficit drives slow structural collapse.

Without intervention:
HY increases → LCR drops → Z2 timed collapse within 4–6 weeks.

---

# GLOBAL SENSOR COMPARISON TABLE

```txt
CITY        PRIMARY DRIVER          FIRST SENSOR TO TRIGGER

Singapore   Foundation under load   LCR + ECI
New York    Switching + energy      ρ + EB
Tokyo       Energy depletion        EB + HY
```

---

# FULL SENSOR TRIGGER MATRIX

```txt
If ECI high + FCR slow:
  Foundation collapse

If TR low:
  Novelty fragility

If LCR low:
  Timed collapse

If EB negative:
  Global R suppression

If HY high:
  Slow recovery; FCR degradation

If ρ > 1:
  Instability injection

If Θ < 1:
  Irreversibility
```

---

# META INSIGHT

```txt
Different cities trigger different first sensors.
But all collapse reduces to:

R < D · L
AND
Timing margin exhausted.
```

---

# VERSION LOCK

```txt
EDU_CT_GEO_TRIGGER_v1_0
Singapore / New York / Tokyo scenarios
All sensors activated
Forward-only
```

---

```txt
PART 27 — GLOBAL COMPARATIVE STABILITY MAP (ALMOST-CODE)
ID: EDU_CT_GLOBAL_MAP_v1_0
TYPE: Comparative Framework + Normalisation
COMPAT: EDU_CT_v1_0 + NEG_VOID + ESS + ESS-Δ + GEO_TRIGGERS
PURPOSE: Compare Education stability across cities using the same metric set and thresholds
STATUS: Forward-only
```

```txt
GLOBAL_MAP_ENGINE_01:

CityNode = {
  CityID,
  CountryID,
  EducationContextTags[],
  BaselineSensorProfile,
  StressScenarioSet,
  ESS_baseline,
  ESSD_baseline,
  RiskIndex,
  DominantDriverRank[],
  WeakestZBand
}

Process:
1) Normalise input measurement conventions (see NORM_01)
2) Compute ESS and ESS-Δ baseline
3) Apply StressScenarioSet (S_SET_01 default)
4) Compute:
   - Pass/Fail per scenario
   - WorstCaseESS
   - WorstCaseThetaProxy
   - CollapseCount (#fail scenarios)
5) RiskIndex = f(WorstCaseESS, Θ_proxy_min, ΔESS_worst, CollapseCount)
6) Output GlobalMapRecord per city
```

---

## NORM_01 — Measurement Normalisation Contract

```txt
NORM_01:

All city runs must use identical measurement definitions:
- LCR: timed/untimed on familiar wrapper
- TR: new wrapper / familiar wrapper
- ECI: repeated_errors/top_k
- FCR: fix_time/cycle_time
- HY: days_to_baseline
- EB: 0–10 scales for E_in, E_out, E_loss; EB = E_in-(E_out+E_loss)
- ρ: major method/tool changes per week / allowed changes (exam window=1)

If a city uses different exams/curriculum:
  Map to wrapper definition rather than content.
```

---

## RISKINDEX_01 — City Risk Index (CRI)

```txt
CRI_01:

Inputs:
- WorstCaseESS (after stress)
- Θ_proxy_min (minimum over scenarios)
- ΔESS_week_worst (most negative under stress)
- CollapseCount (number of FAIL scenarios)

CRI = clamp( 100 * (
  0.35*(1 - WorstCaseESS/100) +
  0.30*max(0, 1 - Θ_proxy_min/1.0) +
  0.20*min(1, |ΔESS_week_worst|/10 ) +
  0.15*min(1, CollapseCount/7)
), 0, 100)

Interpretation:
CRI 0–29  = Low systemic instability risk
CRI 30–59 = Moderate
CRI 60–79 = High
CRI 80–100= Critical
```

---

## GLOBAL_MAP_OUTPUT_01 — Example City Records (SGP/NYC/TYO)

```txt
CITY_RECORD_SGP_01:
CityID: SGP
DominantDriverRank: [LCR, ECI, FCR, Θ, EB]
WeakestZBand: Z0–Z1 → Z2–Z3 under load
StressFailLikely: [S1,S6,S7]

CITY_RECORD_NYC_01:
CityID: NYC
DominantDriverRank: [ρ, EB, HY, TR, FCR]
WeakestZBand: Cross-Z (constraints) → Z1–Z2 transfer
StressFailLikely: [S2,S3,S5,S7]

CITY_RECORD_TYO_01:
CityID: TYO
DominantDriverRank: [EB, HY, LCR, FCR]
WeakestZBand: Cross-Z energy → Z2 timed
StressFailLikely: [S3,S4,S7]
```

---

```txt
PART 28 — CITY-TO-CITY EDUCATIONOS RISK INDEX (ALMOST-CODE)
ID: EDU_CT_CITY_RISK_INDEX_v1_0
TYPE: Scoring + Ranking + Actions
COMPAT: GLOBAL_MAP_v1_0
PURPOSE: Produce a comparable “city risk index” + recommended primary interventions
```

```txt
CITY_RISK_ENGINE_01:

Input:
GlobalMapRecord (per city)

Output:
CityRiskCard = {
  CityID,
  CRI,
  Band,
  Top3Drivers,
  PrimaryGuardrails,
  RecommendedRepairBias,
  MonitoringCadence
}
```

---

## CITY_RISK_CARD Templates (SGP/NYC/TYO)

```txt
CITY_RISK_CARD_SGP:
CityID: SGP
CRI_Band_Bias: Moderate→High (during PSLE/O-Level windows)
Top3Drivers: [LCR, ECI, Θ]
PrimaryGuardrails:
  - If LCR<0.7 → stop papers; repair Z0–Z1
  - If ECI>0.5 → 24h redo compression
  - If Θ<1 → emergency truncation
RecommendedRepairBias:
  - Foundation-first + timed reintroduction
MonitoringCadence: weekly (7d), twice-weekly in last 6 weeks

CITY_RISK_CARD_NYC:
CityID: NYC
CRI_Band_Bias: Moderate (variable by extracurricular load)
Top3Drivers: [ρ, EB, HY]
PrimaryGuardrails:
  - If ρ>1 → operator freeze + sandbox only
  - If EB<0 → sleep/energy restore before volume
  - If HY>3 → reduce load + minimum routine
RecommendedRepairBias:
  - Constraint-first (energy + choice), then transfer stability
MonitoringCadence: weekly; add midweek EB/ρ check

CITY_RISK_CARD_TYO:
CityID: TYO
CRI_Band_Bias: Moderate→High (long-hour fatigue risk)
Top3Drivers: [EB, HY, LCR]
PrimaryGuardrails:
  - EB negative sustained → reduce hours 10–20%
  - HY>3 → recovery-first before escalation
  - LCR<0.7 → timed load reduction
RecommendedRepairBias:
  - Buffer-first (EBUF rebuild) + maintain stable drills
MonitoringCadence: weekly; HY/EB check twice-weekly
```

---

```txt
PART 29 — CROSS-CITY STRESS TRANSFER SIMULATION (ALMOST-CODE)
ID: EDU_CT_CROSSCITY_TRANSFER_v1_0
TYPE: Scenario Transfer + Vulnerability Prediction
COMPAT: STRESSTEST_ENGINE_01 + GLOBAL_MAP_v1_0
PURPOSE: Apply one city’s stress profile to another city’s baseline to predict failure modes
```

---

## TRANSFER_ENGINE_01 — Definition

```txt
TRANSFER_ENGINE_01:

Given:
- City A baseline metrics M_A
- City B stress scenario S_B (perturbations Δ_B)

Compute:
M_A' = Apply(Δ_B to M_A)
Recompute ESS, ESS-Δ, TTC, Θ_proxy, NV flags
Output:
TransferResult(A under B-stress) = {
  Fail?,
  DominantDriver,
  WeakestZBand,
  MinimalRepairSet
}
```

---

## City Stress Signatures (from observed patterns)

```txt
STRESS_SIGNATURES_01:

SIG_SGP:
  ΔLCR = -0.15
  ΔECI = +0.15
  ΔFCR = +0.10
  ΔEB  = -1
  (time pressure + foundation exposure)

SIG_NYC:
  Δρ   = +0.7
  ΔEB  = -2
  ΔTR  = -0.15
  ΔHY  = +1 day
  (switching + energy leak + wrapper variety)

SIG_TYO:
  ΔEB  = -3
  ΔHY  = +2 days
  ΔLCR = -0.10
  (endurance fatigue)
```

---

## TRANSFER EXAMPLES

### A) Singapore student under NYC stress (method churn)

```txt
TRANSFER_EX_SG_UNDER_NYC:

Start M_SG baseline:
  ECI 0.50, FCR 0.75, TR 0.78, LCR 0.74, HY 2d, EB -1, ρ 0.8, ESS 65

Apply SIG_NYC:
  ρ -> 1.5
  EB -> -3
  TR -> 0.63
  HY -> 3d

Result:
  FLAGS: TR_LOW, EB_NEG, RHO_OVER, HY_HIGH
  Z_focus: Cross-Z then Z1–Z2
  ESS drop: ~10–15
  ΔESS_week_pred ≤ -5
  Action: choice freeze + energy restore + wrapper training
```

### B) NYC student under Singapore stress (timed compression)

```txt
TRANSFER_EX_NYC_UNDER_SG:

Start M_NYC baseline:
  ECI 0.42, FCR 0.65, TR 0.70, LCR 0.78, HY 3d, EB -3, ρ 1.2, ESS 62

Apply SIG_SGP:
  LCR -> 0.63
  ECI -> 0.57
  FCR -> 0.75
  EB  -> -4

Result:
  FLAGS: LCR_LOW, ECI_HIGH, EB_NEG
  Z_focus: Z0–Z1 + Z2
  Θ_proxy shrinks quickly (timed collapse)
  Action: foundation patch + timed micro drills + energy restore
```

### C) Tokyo student under Singapore stress (foundation exposure + timed)

```txt
TRANSFER_EX_TYO_UNDER_SG:

Start M_TYO baseline:
  ECI 0.30, FCR 0.60, TR 0.82, LCR 0.76, HY 4d, EB -4, ρ 0.5, ESS 72

Apply SIG_SGP:
  LCR -> 0.61
  ECI -> 0.45
  FCR -> 0.70
  EB  -> -5

Result:
  FLAGS: LCR_LOW, EB_NEG, HY_HIGH
  Z_focus: Cross-Z energy + Z2 timed
  Risk: timed collapse within 3–5 weeks if no truncation
  Action: reduce load + sleep protection + timed stability rebuild
```

---

```txt
PART 30 — GLOBAL PACK OUTPUT CONTRACT (ALMOST-CODE)
ID: EDU_CT_GLOBAL_PACK_CONTRACT_v1_0
TYPE: Publishing contract for city packs
PURPOSE: Make future city additions plug-and-play without changing core spec
```

```txt
CITY_PACK_CONTRACT_01:

Each CityPack must include:
- CityID, CountryID, ExamContextTags
- BaselineSensorProfile (ECI,FCR,TR,LCR,HY,AO,EB,ρ,Θ)
- StressFailLikely scenarios (subset of S_SET_01)
- DominantDriverRank
- WeakestZBand
- CityRiskCard
- CrossCityTransfer tests (optional)
- Version: CITYPACK_<CityID>_v0_1 etc.
No renaming of MetricIDs.
```

---

```txt
PART 31 — VERSION LOCK (GLOBAL PACK)
ID: EDU_CT_GLOBAL_LOCK_v1_0

EDU_CT_GLOBAL_MAP_v1_0
EDU_CT_CITY_RISK_INDEX_v1_0
EDU_CT_CROSSCITY_TRANSFER_v1_0
EDU_CT_GLOBAL_PACK_CONTRACT_v1_0

Forward-only.
Compatible with EDU_CT_v1_0.
Stable IDs.
```
Got it — we won’t touch the old pages.
Instead, we’ll add a **single “Global Pack Wiring” insert** *inside* your **EducationOS Control Tower v1.0** page that:

* declares it as a **global overlay module**
* binds to **Z5 COUNTRY:{ISO3}** pages by pointer (no edits required)
* points to the **Z6 EDU attach-point** `/country/{ISO3}/z6-org/edu/`
* makes Google/AI see the linkage as a formal contract

Paste the block below at the end of:
`https://edukatesg.com/civos-runtime-educationos-control-tower-v1-0/`

---

```txt
PART 32 — GLOBAL PACK WIRING (Z5 ALL COUNTRIES ISO3) — POINTER-ONLY OVERLAY
ID: EDU_CT_GLOBAL_WIRE_v1_0
TYPE: GlobalOverlayWire
STATUS: ACTIVE
COMPAT:
  - EDU_CT_v1_0
  - CivOS_Runtime_v1_2
  - Z5_GlobalMegaPack_AllCountries_ISO3_v1_2
DOES_NOT_MODIFY:
  - any existing “How Education Works” pages
  - any existing country pages
  - any existing city pages
PURPOSE:
  Wire EducationOS Control Tower into every COUNTRY:{ISO3} via attach-point pointers.
SOURCE_GLOBAL_INDEX:
  Z5 Global Mega Pack — All Countries (ISO alpha-3) — CivOS v1.2

```

```txt
GLOBAL_BIND_CONTRACT_01:

Key:
  ISO3 ∈ GlobalISOIndex
  PlaceID = COUNTRY:{ISO3}  (immutable)

AttachPoint (authoritative):
  EDU_Z6_ATTACH = /country/{ISO3}/z6-org/edu/

WiringRule:
  ForEach ISO3:
    BindPointer:
      COUNTRY:{ISO3} -> EDU_Z6_ATTACH
    Declare:
      EDU.ControlTower.PointerSet.v1_0
```

```txt
EDU.ControlTower.PointerSet.v1_0:

ControlTower:
  EDU_CT_v1_0          = /civos-runtime-educationos-control-tower-v1-0/
NegativeTwin:
  EDU_COLLAPSE_v1_0    = /how-education-collapses-v1-0/

Energy Layer:
  ERCO_v1_0            = /erco-singapore-full-stack-full-dependencies-v1-0/

Metrics (referenced, not duplicated):
  ESS_v1_0
  ESSD_v1_0
  EDU_CT_NEGATIVE_VOID_v1_0
  EDU_CT_AUTODIAG_v1_0
  EDU_CT_STRESSTEST_v1_0
  EDU_CT_PROPAGATION_v1_0
  EDU_CT_OS_NEGATIVES_v1_0
  EDU_CT_GLOBAL_MAP_v1_0
  EDU_CT_CITY_RISK_INDEX_v1_0
  EDU_CT_CROSSCITY_TRANSFER_v1_0

SensorsUsed:
  EDU.ECI, EDU.FCR, EDU.TR, EDU.LCR, EDU.R
  EMO.HY, EMO.AO
  ERCO.EB, ERCO.EBUF
  SYM.RHO, SYM.SCI
  FENCE.THETA, FENCE.TTC, FENCE.LAMBDA
```

```txt
GLOBAL_THRESHOLD_CONTRACT_01:

BelowThreshold flags:
  - TR < 0.7            => FLAG_TR_LOW
  - LCR < 0.7           => FLAG_LCR_LOW
  - ECI > 0.5           => FLAG_ECI_HIGH
  - FCR > 0.8           => FLAG_FCR_SLOW
  - HY > 3 days         => FLAG_HY_HIGH
  - EB < 0 sustained    => FLAG_EB_NEG
  - ρ  > 1 sustained    => FLAG_RHO_OVER
  - Θ  < 1              => FLAG_THETA_LOW

Compound Instability:
  If 3+ flags active => COMPOUND_MODE = TRUE

Fence Override:
  If Θ < 1 => ESS ≤ 39  (urgent regardless of learning scores)
```

```txt
GLOBAL_EXECUTION_CONTRACT_01:

This wiring does NOT assume local curriculum facts.
It only provides a stable global attach-point:

  COUNTRY:{ISO3} -> /country/{ISO3}/z6-org/edu/

Localisation happens later via:
  - Z6 EDU org directory per country (official institutions)
  - Z3 city packs (major cities)
  - Z2/Z1/Z0 deep dives (districts/schools/learner nodes)
```

```txt
GLOBAL_OUTPUTS_01:

For any COUNTRY:{ISO3}, EducationOS can compute (when local data exists):
  - ESS (state)
  - ESS-Δ (trajectory)
  - TTC_ESS
  - Θ_proxy
  - DominantDriver
  - WeakestZBand
  - RiskIndex (CRI)

If no local data exists:
  - Country remains “wired” by pointer only
  - No fabricated metrics
```

```txt
VERSION_LOCK:
EDU_CT_GLOBAL_WIRE_v1_0
Forward-only.
Pointer-only overlay.
Does not modify prior pages.
Stable ISO3 keying from Z5 Global Pack.
```

---

EDUCATIONOS CONTROL TOWER v1.0

EducationOS Control Tower v1.0 — Regenerative Stability Architecture (Mega Pack)

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