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Why Science? | scCODA, Compositional Models and Credible Cell-Type Abundance Changes

Three students sit around open books and worksheets at a classroom table, reading, writing and discussing the work together.

eduKateSG · Why Science?

Test which relative cell-type abundances change when every proportion must share the same whole—and make the reference explicit

Full section index · Science Learning Hub

Science learning becomes useful when a familiar object or observation is turned into a system of quantities, mechanisms and claim limits. This guide owns one applied evidence-reading job inside eduKateSG’s wider Science estate. It connects naturally to Why Science Milo Neighbourhood Differential Abundance Single Cell Population Shifts; Why Science Augur Cell Type Responsiveness Perturbation Priority Evidence; Why Science Mixscape Perturbation Detection Crispr Response Signatures; Why Science Cinema Ot Confounder Separation Single Cell Treatment Effects; Education Hub; Singapore Secondary School Directory; Career Adulthood Hub; Science Learning Hub. It also keeps current school and public claims traceable to visible primary sources: scCODA primary study; scCODA PubMed record; Official scCODA repository; 2026 Singapore–Cambridge O-Level Biology syllabus; MOE G2/G3 Lower Secondary Science syllabus; 2026 MOE G2 Computing syllabus. The sources describe the scientific scope; this article translates that scope into a calm route for Primary Science, PSLE Science, Secondary Science, O-Level Science, STEM exploration, school choices and career pathways without inventing admission or employment outcomes.

scCODA, presented by Büttner and colleagues in Nature Communications in 2021, is a Bayesian framework for analysing cell-type count compositions. It models sample-level counts while respecting the fact that cell-type proportions sum to one, uses a reference component for relative interpretation and applies model selection designed to identify credible changes while controlling false discoveries. This is especially useful when biological replicates are limited, but it does not create information that the study did not measure. Results are relative to the reference, sampling process and model assumptions.

Section 1 of 36

1. Begin with a fixed whole

If one cell type occupies more of a sampled total, at least one other type must occupy less. Proportions cannot vary independently.

Cell-type counts form a composition because proportions within a sample sum to one; changing one component necessarily changes at least one other proportion.

Archive raw sample-by-cell-type counts, annotations, totals, covariates, reference choice, priors, chains, diagnostics, seeds and software version.

Contents · Next section

Section 2 of 36

2. Use counts, not isolated percentages

Retain the sample-by-cell-type count table and total cells. Percentages alone hide sampling depth and the discrete evidence that generated them.

scCODA models sample-level count vectors with a Bayesian framework rather than testing each proportion as if it were independent.

Use independent biological samples, preserve pairing and batch, and choose the reference before inspecting the most attractive effects.

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Section 3 of 36

3. Choose a reference component

scCODA expresses covariate effects relative to a reference cell type intended to remain comparatively stable across conditions.

Effects are interpreted relative to a selected reference cell type, making the denominator a visible part of every biological statement.

Compare alternative references, count-based descriptive plots, label permutations and other compositional models on the same samples.

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Section 4 of 36

4. Model the composition jointly

The Bayesian framework treats the vector of counts together, respecting competition for the same total rather than running unrelated tests.

Spike-and-slab-style model selection identifies credible covariate effects while targeting control of false discoveries under the model.

Report posterior inclusion, credible effects, uncertainty, convergence, predictive fit, sample-level counts and reference sensitivity.

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Section 5 of 36

5. Select credible effects

Model selection separates effects supported by the posterior from those left at zero under declared priors and a false-discovery target.

Limited replicates create wide uncertainty that many cells cannot erase; sample number and design remain the evidence foundation.

Build a composition card with denominator, sample support, credible changes, diagnostics, alternatives and validation status.

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Section 6 of 36

6. Keep uncertainty visible

Posterior distributions show a range of plausible effects. A concise selected set should not conceal weak sample support or poor model fit.

A relative abundance result does not distinguish proliferation, death, migration, capture bias or compositional displacement without further measurements.

Say credible relative abundance change under the scCODA model; avoid absolute expansion, depletion or causation without supporting evidence.

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Section 7 of 36

7. Read the 2021 evidence in scope

Büttner and colleagues introduced scCODA for compositional single-cell data analysis, with evaluations across simulated and biological datasets.

Cell-type counts form a composition because proportions within a sample sum to one; changing one component necessarily changes at least one other proportion.

Archive raw sample-by-cell-type counts, annotations, totals, covariates, reference choice, priors, chains, diagnostics, seeds and software version.

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Section 8 of 36

8. Define the biological sample

The replicate is a donor, animal, culture or specimen. Individual cells within one sample share conditions and are not independent replicates.

scCODA models sample-level count vectors with a Bayesian framework rather than testing each proportion as if it were independent.

Use independent biological samples, preserve pairing and batch, and choose the reference before inspecting the most attractive effects.

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Section 9 of 36

9. Build a count manifest

Record sample, condition, batch, tissue, cell-type labels, total captured cells, exclusions and any pairing before calculating proportions.

Effects are interpreted relative to a selected reference cell type, making the denominator a visible part of every biological statement.

Compare alternative references, count-based descriptive plots, label permutations and other compositional models on the same samples.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 10 of 36

10. Audit cell-type annotation

Marker choices, reference mapping and resolution determine the columns of the composition. Merge uncertain rare categories before making precise claims.

Spike-and-slab-style model selection identifies credible covariate effects while targeting control of false discoveries under the model.

Report posterior inclusion, credible effects, uncertainty, convergence, predictive fit, sample-level counts and reference sensitivity.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 11 of 36

11. Choose a reference scientifically

Prefer a sufficiently abundant component expected to be stable, then justify that expectation independently of the desired result.

Limited replicates create wide uncertainty that many cells cannot erase; sample number and design remain the evidence foundation.

Build a composition card with denominator, sample support, credible changes, diagnostics, alternatives and validation status.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 12 of 36

12. Test alternative references

Because effects are relative, rerun defensible reference choices and translate coefficients carefully. Robust biological conclusions should not hinge on one denominator.

A relative abundance result does not distinguish proliferation, death, migration, capture bias or compositional displacement without further measurements.

Say credible relative abundance change under the scCODA model; avoid absolute expansion, depletion or causation without supporting evidence.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 13 of 36

13. Specify covariates and pairing

Include condition, batch and identifiable design factors. Preserve matched samples where the experiment provides them.

Cell-type counts form a composition because proportions within a sample sum to one; changing one component necessarily changes at least one other proportion.

Archive raw sample-by-cell-type counts, annotations, totals, covariates, reference choice, priors, chains, diagnostics, seeds and software version.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 14 of 36

14. Check prior assumptions

Priors influence shrinkage and effect selection, especially with few samples. Report defaults, changes and sensitivity rather than treating them as invisible.

scCODA models sample-level count vectors with a Bayesian framework rather than testing each proportion as if it were independent.

Use independent biological samples, preserve pairing and batch, and choose the reference before inspecting the most attractive effects.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 15 of 36

15. Practise with a fictional scCODA table

This classroom table is invented and is not output from the scCODA paper.

Fictional cell typeRelative effectCredibleReference sensitivityNext action
Type A0.8YesStableValidate counts
Type B-0.4NoVariableAdd samples
Type C0.0ReferenceNot applicableMonitor
Invented classroom data for comparison practice; not an operational, product-certification or safety dataset.

Effects are interpreted relative to a selected reference cell type, making the denominator a visible part of every biological statement.

Compare alternative references, count-based descriptive plots, label permutations and other compositional models on the same samples.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 16 of 36

16. Read a selected effect

A credible non-zero coefficient indicates a condition-associated change relative to the reference under the model and coding used.

Spike-and-slab-style model selection identifies credible covariate effects while targeting control of false discoveries under the model.

Report posterior inclusion, credible effects, uncertainty, convergence, predictive fit, sample-level counts and reference sensitivity.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 17 of 36

17. Translate signs carefully

The sign depends on covariate and reference levels. State which condition is compared with which and avoid ambiguous increase language.

Limited replicates create wide uncertainty that many cells cannot erase; sample number and design remain the evidence foundation.

Build a composition card with denominator, sample support, credible changes, diagnostics, alternatives and validation status.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 18 of 36

18. Inspect sample-level counts

Plot every sample. A posterior summary without raw count patterns can conceal an outlier or batch-confounded separation.

A relative abundance result does not distinguish proliferation, death, migration, capture bias or compositional displacement without further measurements.

Say credible relative abundance change under the scCODA model; avoid absolute expansion, depletion or causation without supporting evidence.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 19 of 36

19. Check convergence

Review chains and diagnostic summaries where available. A model that has not sampled its posterior reliably cannot support a polished biological story.

Cell-type counts form a composition because proportions within a sample sum to one; changing one component necessarily changes at least one other proportion.

Archive raw sample-by-cell-type counts, annotations, totals, covariates, reference choice, priors, chains, diagnostics, seeds and software version.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 20 of 36

20. Check predictive fit

Posterior predictive checks ask whether simulated counts resemble important features of observed compositions, including variation and zeros.

scCODA models sample-level count vectors with a Bayesian framework rather than testing each proportion as if it were independent.

Use independent biological samples, preserve pairing and batch, and choose the reference before inspecting the most attractive effects.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 21 of 36

21. Handle rare cell types cautiously

Sparse categories can yield unstable relative effects. Consider justified aggregation and report detection limitations.

Effects are interpreted relative to a selected reference cell type, making the denominator a visible part of every biological statement.

Compare alternative references, count-based descriptive plots, label permutations and other compositional models on the same samples.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 22 of 36

22. Run condition permutations

Shuffle labels at the sample level within valid blocks. The full pipeline should not routinely select effects under the null.

Spike-and-slab-style model selection identifies credible covariate effects while targeting control of false discoveries under the model.

Report posterior inclusion, credible effects, uncertainty, convergence, predictive fit, sample-level counts and reference sensitivity.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 23 of 36

23. Separate relative and absolute abundance

A rise in proportion can occur even if the cell count stays constant while another population falls. Absolute quantification needs additional measurement.

Limited replicates create wide uncertainty that many cells cannot erase; sample number and design remain the evidence foundation.

Build a composition card with denominator, sample support, credible changes, diagnostics, alternatives and validation status.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 24 of 36

24. Investigate mechanisms separately

Proliferation, death, migration, differentiation and capture bias can produce similar compositional patterns. Design follow-up assays that discriminate them.

A relative abundance result does not distinguish proliferation, death, migration, capture bias or compositional displacement without further measurements.

Say credible relative abundance change under the scCODA model; avoid absolute expansion, depletion or causation without supporting evidence.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 25 of 36

25. Compare with Milo

Milo tests local graph-neighbourhood counts; scCODA tests predeclared cell-type count compositions with an explicit reference component.

Cell-type counts form a composition because proportions within a sample sum to one; changing one component necessarily changes at least one other proportion.

Archive raw sample-by-cell-type counts, annotations, totals, covariates, reference choice, priors, chains, diagnostics, seeds and software version.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 26 of 36

26. Compare with Augur

Augur asks how separable perturbation conditions are within cell types. scCODA asks which relative cell-type abundances credibly change across samples.

scCODA models sample-level count vectors with a Bayesian framework rather than testing each proportion as if it were independent.

Use independent biological samples, preserve pairing and batch, and choose the reference before inspecting the most attractive effects.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 27 of 36

27. Build a composition evidence card

Place raw counts, reference rationale, model formula, selected effects, diagnostics, alternative references and absolute-measurement status together.

Effects are interpreted relative to a selected reference cell type, making the denominator a visible part of every biological statement.

Compare alternative references, count-based descriptive plots, label permutations and other compositional models on the same samples.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 28 of 36

28. Design the next experiment

Add independent samples and orthogonal absolute counts, standardise recovery and predeclare the reference before seeing outcomes.

Spike-and-slab-style model selection identifies credible covariate effects while targeting control of false discoveries under the model.

Report posterior inclusion, credible effects, uncertainty, convergence, predictive fit, sample-level counts and reference sensitivity.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 29 of 36

29. Connect scCODA to school science

Fractions, ecosystems and limiting totals provide an intuitive bridge to compositional reasoning in modern biology.

Limited replicates create wide uncertainty that many cells cannot erase; sample number and design remain the evidence foundation.

Build a composition card with denominator, sample support, credible changes, diagnostics, alternatives and validation status.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 30 of 36

30. Try a shared-pie activity

Give groups fixed totals of coloured counters, alter one category and observe how every percentage changes even when some counts do not.

A relative abundance result does not distinguish proliferation, death, migration, capture bias or compositional displacement without further measurements.

Say credible relative abundance change under the scCODA model; avoid absolute expansion, depletion or causation without supporting evidence.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 31 of 36

31. Connect to mathematics

Ratios, logarithms, probability distributions, Bayesian updating and false-discovery control make relative evidence explicit.

Cell-type counts form a composition because proportions within a sample sum to one; changing one component necessarily changes at least one other proportion.

Archive raw sample-by-cell-type counts, annotations, totals, covariates, reference choice, priors, chains, diagnostics, seeds and software version.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 32 of 36

32. Connect to computing and AI literacy

A sophisticated model cannot infer absolute change from relative counts alone. The data structure constrains the answer.

scCODA models sample-level count vectors with a Bayesian framework rather than testing each proportion as if it were independent.

Use independent biological samples, preserve pairing and batch, and choose the reference before inspecting the most attractive effects.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 33 of 36

33. Connect to school and career choices

Learners who enjoy parts and wholes can explore biology, statistics, computing, public health or bioinformatics through many education paths.

Effects are interpreted relative to a selected reference cell type, making the denominator a visible part of every biological statement.

Compare alternative references, count-based descriptive plots, label permutations and other compositional models on the same samples.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 34 of 36

34. Create a family denominator habit

Whenever a percentage changes, ask what the total is, what serves as reference and whether absolute counts were measured.

Spike-and-slab-style model selection identifies credible covariate effects while targeting control of false discoveries under the model.

Report posterior inclusion, credible effects, uncertainty, convergence, predictive fit, sample-level counts and reference sensitivity.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 35 of 36

35. Use precise scCODA language

Say posterior-supported relative abundance effect versus the named reference. Avoid absolute growth, loss or causal mechanism without added evidence.

Limited replicates create wide uncertainty that many cells cannot erase; sample number and design remain the evidence foundation.

Build a composition card with denominator, sample support, credible changes, diagnostics, alternatives and validation status.

Contents · Previous section · Next section

Section 36 of 36

36. Finish with a count-to-credible-claim bundle

Deliver count manifests, reference rationales, model diagnostics, sensitivity analyses, evidence cards and independent absolute validation.

A relative abundance result does not distinguish proliferation, death, migration, capture bias or compositional displacement without further measurements.

Say credible relative abundance change under the scCODA model; avoid absolute expansion, depletion or causation without supporting evidence.

Did you know? If a sample contains 20% type A and type A doubles in absolute number while all other counts stay fixed, every other percentage falls even though those cells did not disappear. Composition changes the language of evidence.

A useful final dashboard names the reference, displays raw counts by sample, shows posterior-selected effects and repeats the analysis with defensible alternative references.

Absolute counting beads, histology or another independent measurement can distinguish a truly changing population from a relative shift caused elsewhere in the composition.

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