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The Gold Standard of Yeast | Why a Budding Fraction Is Not a Doubling-Time Clock

A budding fraction tells us how many counted yeast units show a visible bud in a particular observation. It does not, by itself, tell us how long division takes or how quickly the population doubles. The same fraction can occur when a cycle is stretched in time, when the population contains different cell histories, or when cells spend longer in the visible state.

This guide extends The Gold Standard of Yeast through paper examples about snapshots and time. All counts, state durations and mathematical populations below are invented teaching constructions. They are not instructions for growing yeast, identifying a strain or estimating a real culture’s doubling time from an image. The useful skill is deciding which observation answers which biological question.

eduKateSG · Yeast

Find your next learning step

Choose the question closest to your task, or follow the chapters in order. Each route leads into the complete worked explanation.

ROUTE 1 · CHAPTERS 1–4

Read the snapshot

Define scored units, denominators and the missing time information.

ROUTE 2 · CHAPTERS 5–8

Build conditional models

Compare occupancy, uniform phase and a symmetric growing toy population.

ROUTE 3 · CHAPTERS 9–12

Test what a fraction identifies

Derive age weighting and construct different compatible durations.

ROUTE 4 · CHAPTERS 13–16

Return to biological evidence

Keep cell histories, synchrony, prolonged occupancy and missing cases visible.

ROUTE 5 · CHAPTERS 17–20

Practise and continue

Match time evidence to the question, attempt transfer and follow reading routes.

Full chapter contents · Yeast subject guide

Chapter contents

Read the snapshot · Chapters 1–4

1. Begin with a snapshot rather than a stopwatch

2. Define what counts as one scored unit

3. Calculate the fraction without changing its meaning

4. Notice the missing unit of time

Build conditional models · Chapters 5–8

5. Separate occupancy from passage through a state

6. Examine the uniform-phase toy model

7. Stretch the entire cycle without changing the fraction

8. Build a different model for balanced exponential growth

Test what a fraction identifies · Chapters 9–12

9. Make the younger-age weighting concrete

10. Derive the terminal-state fraction in the symmetric toy

11. Recover a ratio before claiming an absolute duration

12. Show that a higher fraction can coexist with slower division

Return to biological evidence · Chapters 13–16

13. Keep mother and daughter histories visible

14. Distinguish a synchronized cohort from a balanced population

15. Consider prolonged occupancy without assuming successful completion

16. Preserve unscorable objects and selection limits

Practise and continue · Chapters 17–20

17. Add time evidence that answers the intended question

18. Attempt a changed-context transfer without importing a calibration

19. Questions about budding fractions and clocks

20. Continue through organism, counting and comparison routes

CHAPTER 1 OF 20 · Read the snapshot

1. Begin with a snapshot rather than a stopwatch

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A learner sees a labelled image set containing some budded and some unbudded yeast units. The immediate observation concerns visible state at the recorded time. A statement about how quickly those units divide would require a connection between state and elapsed time. That connection does not appear merely because the objects are living cells.

Imagine two fictional image sets, each with forty budded units among one hundred scored units. Both have a budding fraction of 0.40. Nothing in that count alone tells us whether a visible state lasts briefly or persists for a long interval. A large occupancy can reflect frequent entry, slow exit or a mixture of histories.

The analogy of a waiting room can help, provided its limits remain visible. Many people in the room could mean many arrivals or long waits. A room photograph does not distinguish those explanations. Likewise, a biological snapshot needs a model and appropriate time evidence before it becomes a rate estimate.

Write the learning question narrowly: what fraction of the scored units satisfies this visible-state definition? Then write the proposed time question separately. Asking both is productive. Answering the first and silently reporting it as the second is the mistake this article repairs. The next chapters build the distinction from counting conventions to explicit mathematical counterexamples.

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CHAPTER 2 OF 20 · Read the snapshot

2. Define what counts as one scored unit

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A budding observation requires a denominator convention. If a mother with an attached bud is scored as one budded unit, that convention must be applied consistently. Counting the mother and attached bud as two separate units in some images but one in others changes the denominator and can change the fraction without any biological change.

For the fictional image exercises here, one scored unit is either a clearly unbudded object or one mother-and-attached-bud pair. This is an explicit classroom convention, not a universal microscopy rule. Ambiguous or unscorable objects remain separately recorded rather than being assigned whichever category supports a preferred result.

A budded unit under this convention is not a colony-forming unit. Nor does its visible appearance independently establish viability, identity or future division. These are different claims. The existing guide to colony counts when clusters break apart examines another counting-unit problem; its method should not be substituted for a budding-state definition.

A practical image worksheet should state what is counted, which feature defines budded, how uncertain objects are recorded and whether every relevant object in the chosen field is included. The goal is reproducibility. Two readers should be able to follow the same supplied definition and explain any disagreement about classification before drawing conclusions from their totals.

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CHAPTER 3 OF 20 · Read the snapshot

3. Calculate the fraction without changing its meaning

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Let B be the number of scored budded units and U the number of scored unbudded units. The budding fraction for this convention is f = B / (B + U). With B = 40 and U = 60, f = 40 / 100 = 0.40, or forty per cent.

The denominator is the total scored population, not just the unbudded count. B / U = 40 / 60 is a ratio of budded to unbudded units. It is meaningful when labelled correctly, but it is not the same quantity as the fraction of all scored units that are budded.

Fictional image setBudded BUnbudded UBudding fraction B / (B + U)
A40600.40
B801200.40
C401600.20
D60400.60
Fictional scored image sets using one explicit mother-and-attached-bud unit convention.

Sets A and B have different numbers of objects but the same fraction. Set C has the same budded count as A but a different denominator and fraction. These comparisons prevent two common shortcuts: equating a larger count with a larger fraction, and interpreting an unchanged budded count without checking the total.

Ask the learner to describe each comparison in a full sentence. For example, B contains twice as many scored objects as A and the same proportion classified as budded. That sentence says exactly what the table establishes. It does not add a growth rate, division duration or claim that the two populations have matching histories.

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CHAPTER 4 OF 20 · Read the snapshot

4. Notice the missing unit of time

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A fraction is dimensionless. A division rate needs a time basis, and a doubling time has units of time. No amount of moving the decimal point turns forty per cent into forty minutes. The missing time information must come from evidence or a stated model parameter.

Suppose someone proposes doubling time T = 1 / f. With f = 0.40, the expression gives 2.5, but 2.5 what? The input fraction contains no seconds, hours or other duration. The formula cannot produce a calibrated time without an additional quantity carrying that unit.

Dimensional analysis does not solve every biological inference. A formula can have consistent units and still be based on an unsuitable model. It does, however, provide an efficient first check. If a proposed answer creates a time unit that appears nowhere in the premises, something has been left unstated.

For a short repair task, give learners three statements: forty per cent budded, twenty scored divisions during a specified observation interval, and a population count that doubles between two stated times. Ask which describes a state fraction, an event rate and a count-based doubling interval. None is automatically a substitute for the others. Keeping the units attached helps the learner identify which additional observations would answer the intended question.

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CHAPTER 5 OF 20 · Build conditional models

5. Separate occupancy from passage through a state

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A visible bud marks a state that can persist for some duration. Counting how many units occupy that state is different from counting how many complete division events occur during an interval. Occupancy and passage can be related, but the relationship depends on entry, residence and exit behaviour.

Use an invented non-growing flow analogy. If ten objects enter a marked state per model time unit and each stays there for two units in a steady process, roughly twenty objects occupy it. The same occupancy could arise from five entries per unit and a four-unit stay. The example demonstrates non-uniqueness without asserting a biological model for yeast.

A real cell population is more complicated than this flow analogy. Division changes the number and age distribution of units, and mother and daughter histories need not match. The analogy’s job is simply to show why many occupants do not uniquely identify a fast throughput.

This distinction is useful when reading a claim that a higher budding fraction proves faster growth. Before accepting it, ask whether the visible-state duration, population structure and scoring conditions are comparable and what time evidence supports the rate claim. A fraction can be biologically informative while remaining insufficient for a particular inference. Recognising that limit preserves the value of the observation instead of dismissing it or asking it to answer too much.

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CHAPTER 6 OF 20 · Build conditional models

6. Examine the uniform-phase toy model

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Start with a deliberately artificial model: every individual follows the same cycle of duration T, and the population snapshot samples cycle phase uniformly. A specified visible state occupies a terminal interval of duration b in each cycle. Under those assumptions, the fraction in that state is f = b / T.

If T = 10 model time units and b = 4, the state fraction is 0.40. The calculation is straightforward because uniform phase means that a fraction of the cycle’s duration maps directly to the same fraction of observed individuals. The conclusion depends on that sampling assumption.

This model is useful as a first representation, but it is not automatically the age distribution of an exponentially growing population. Division continuously creates new young individuals, so different cycle ages need not be equally represented. We will build a contrasting model rather than assume uniformity because it makes the arithmetic convenient.

Even within the uniform-phase model, f supplies only the ratio b / T. If b is unknown, T cannot be recovered uniquely. A fraction of 0.40 fits b = 4 with T = 10 and b = 8 with T = 20. It also fits infinitely many other positive pairs. The model has converted a snapshot into a relationship between durations; it has not supplied an absolute clock on its own.

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CHAPTER 7 OF 20 · Build conditional models

7. Stretch the entire cycle without changing the fraction

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Take the uniform-phase model and multiply every duration by the same positive factor s. The new visible-state duration is sb and the new cycle duration is sT. Their ratio remains sb / sT = b / T. Every fraction in the snapshot can remain unchanged even though every event takes longer.

For example, model population P has T = 10 and b = 4. Population Q has T = 25 and b = 10. Both have f = 0.40. Q’s model cycle takes two and a half times as long. The equal snapshot fraction cannot distinguish them.

The time-scaling counterexample is particularly strong because it does not depend on a small counting error. Even an exactly known fraction would fail to reveal the missing absolute scale. Scoring ten times more objects can improve precision about the fraction, but it cannot create the absent time calibration.

Ask learners to invent a third pair with the same fraction and a different cycle duration. Then require an explanation of what independent duration measurement would be needed to choose among the pairs. This exercise separates precision from identifiability. Precision concerns how well a quantity is measured. Identifiability concerns whether the available observation and model can distinguish the unknowns at all. More precise evidence of the same limited kind need not resolve a structurally ambiguous question.

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CHAPTER 8 OF 20 · Build conditional models

8. Build a different model for balanced exponential growth

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Now define another mathematical population. Individuals have identical deterministic lifetimes T, then each is replaced by two newborn individuals. No one dies or leaves before division. The population has reached balanced exponential growth with a stable age distribution. This is a symmetric division toy, not a calibrated description of asymmetric budding yeast.

Its growth rate is λ = ln(2) / T, so population size is proportional to exp(λt) and doubles over T. At a fixed observation time, individuals of age a were born a time units earlier. Because births were fewer in the past, older age groups are less numerous than younger ones.

The stable density of cycle ages from zero up to T is p(a) = 2λexp(−λa). Its integral over that interval is one: 2[1 − exp(−λT)] = 2(1 − 1/2) = 1. The normalization depends on the doubling relationship exp(λT) = 2.

The important idea is younger-age weighting. Uniform phase and balanced exponential age sampling are two different assumptions. Neither should be smuggled into an explanation without being named. The symmetric toy lets us derive the difference exactly. Actual budding yeast requires attention to unequal mother and daughter histories and other sources of variation, which we discuss after the mathematical comparison.

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CHAPTER 9 OF 20 · Test what a fraction identifies

9. Make the younger-age weighting concrete

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Divide the symmetric toy cycle into two equal age intervals: the younger half from zero to T / 2 and the older half from T / 2 to T. Integrating the density gives younger fraction 2 − √2, about 0.5858, and older fraction √2 − 1, about 0.4142.

The intervals have equal durations, but they do not contain equal fractions of the balanced growing population. More individuals were born recently than at the earlier times represented by the older group. This is a population-accounting effect, not a claim that the older phase occupies less time for an individual.

A learner can check the result without a full derivation by noting that the two fractions sum to one and that the younger group must be more numerous under the model’s exponential growth. The exact values provide a quantitative check on that reasoning. A value of one half for both groups would describe uniform phase instead.

Use this comparison to revisit the original inference. A terminal visible state lasting half the cycle would occupy about 41.4% of this toy population, not fifty per cent. The same individual time allocation can therefore produce a different snapshot fraction when the population’s age distribution changes. A statement about an individual cycle and a statement about a population snapshot need a model connecting them.

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CHAPTER 10 OF 20 · Test what a fraction identifies

10. Derive the terminal-state fraction in the symmetric toy

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Let the visible state occupy the final b units before division, so its age interval is from T − b to T. Integrate the age density over that interval. The fraction is f = 2[exp(−λ(T − b)) − exp(−λT)]. Using exp(−λT) = 1/2 gives f = exp(λb) − 1 = 2^(b/T) − 1.

This expression applies only to the specified terminal state in the symmetric, deterministic, balanced-growth toy. A state located elsewhere in the cycle would have different limits in the integral. A real budding-state definition cannot be assumed to match those toy conditions merely because the word terminal appears plausible.

For b / T = 0.5, the formula gives √2 − 1, matching the older-half result. For b = 0, it gives zero; for b = T, it gives one. These endpoint checks help confirm that the mathematical expression behaves as the defined state interval requires.

The derivation supplies a disciplined counterexample to the universal shortcut f = b / T. It does not replace that shortcut with a universal yeast formula. Both are conditional model relationships. The lesson is to name the population assumptions and state definition before deciding which relationship, if either, answers the biological question.

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CHAPTER 11 OF 20 · Test what a fraction identifies

11. Recover a ratio before claiming an absolute duration

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Within the symmetric toy, rearranging f = 2^(b/T) − 1 gives b / T = ln(1 + f) / ln(2). For f = 0.50, this ratio is about 0.58496. A uniform-phase model would assign a ratio of 0.50 to the same fraction. The difference comes from age weighting.

If an independent toy parameter establishes b = 6 model time units, then T = 6 ln(2) / ln(1.5), or about 10.2571 units. Without that independent b, the observed fraction still supplies only a ratio. Multiplying b and T by any common factor leaves the fraction unchanged.

Model and supplied evidenceWhat f = 0.50 establishesWhat remains needed for T
Uniform phase, terminal stateb / T = 0.50A valid independent duration scale
Symmetric balanced exponential toyb / T ≈ 0.58496A valid independent duration scale
Either toy with no state-duration informationA conditional ratio onlyb or another sufficient time constraint
Real yeast image aloneA scored visible-state fractionAppropriate biological model and time evidence
Conditional model comparison: neither mathematical toy supplies a calibrated estimator for real yeast.

These model calculations use abstract time units deliberately. They provide no duration parameter for a real yeast population. In a practical reading task, ask where a paper’s duration information comes from and whether the population model fits the observations. A numerical formula can make an assumption look authoritative; writing the assumption beside it makes the inference reviewable.

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CHAPTER 12 OF 20 · Test what a fraction identifies

12. Show that a higher fraction can coexist with slower division

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A higher state fraction need not mean a shorter cycle. In the uniform-phase toy, population P has T = 10 and b = 2, giving f = 0.20. Population Q has T = 20 and b = 12, giving f = 0.60. Q has the higher fraction and the longer cycle.

The symmetric balanced-growth toy gives the same qualitative counterexample. Ratios b / T of 0.2 and 0.6 yield fractions of about 0.1487 and 0.5157. Assigning T values ten and twenty still makes the higher-fraction population slower in elapsed cycle time. The visible state occupies a larger share of its cycle.

Neither example claims that real yeast responds to a particular condition in this way. They disprove a general inference from a fraction alone. A universal claim fails if a permitted model counterexample produces the opposite ordering. To establish the ordering for real populations, additional biological evidence is required.

For independent practice, reverse the question: can two populations have equal cycle durations and different state fractions? Yes, by changing b while keeping T fixed in either toy. Ask learners to provide numbers and state the model. This separates three relationships that are often confused: equal fractions, equal state durations and equal cycle durations. None automatically implies the other two.

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CHAPTER 13 OF 20 · Return to biological evidence

13. Keep mother and daughter histories visible

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Budding yeast does not divide into two interchangeable same-history individuals in the way our symmetric toy assumes. Mother and daughter cells can differ in size and cycle behaviour. A population summary can conceal these differences if every scored unit is treated as following one identical cycle.

The primary study Characterization of dependencies between growth and division in budding yeast analyses published time-lapse datasets and reports differences and dependencies that matter to modelling cell-cycle progression. Its relevance here is specific: a one-cycle symmetric teaching model should not be presented as a calibrated estimator for actual budding yeast.

An original mixture exercise illustrates why population composition matters. Suppose one scored class has a budded fraction of 0.30 and another 0.70, with those within-class fractions supplied as fictional data. If the first class makes up three quarters of the scored units, the overall fraction is 0.75 × 0.30 + 0.25 × 0.70 = 0.40. With equal class shares, it is 0.50.

The overall fraction changes even though neither within-class fraction changes. This is an accounting result, not a biological calibration of mothers and daughters. Use it to ask what population composition a comparison includes. If composition changes, a difference in the overall fraction need not demonstrate a corresponding change within every component class. The denominator and the population structure belong in the explanation.

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CHAPTER 14 OF 20 · Return to biological evidence

14. Distinguish a synchronized cohort from a balanced population

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A group whose members begin close together in cycle phase can produce a changing state fraction over time as that cohort passes through a visible stage. Such a trajectory is different from the stable age distribution assumed in the balanced exponential toy.

Imagine a supplied animation in which one hundred abstract units move together through an unmarked stage and then a visible stage. The fraction can rise sharply from zero to one without showing a change in the units’ underlying cycle duration. The trajectory reflects their shared phase. A single frame would be especially poor evidence for a steady-state rate calculation.

The research paper A branching process model for flow cytometry and budding index measurements in cell synchrony experiments explicitly models cohorts and population dynamics. It provides specialist context for why population-level measurements through time require more than treating every frame as a fresh uniform sample.

For a classroom task, supply two fictional fraction sequences and label one synchronized and the other balanced under its model. Ask which assumptions justify each interpretation. Do not infer synchrony just from an attractive oscillating sketch or prescribe a biological synchronization procedure. The educational goal is to recognise that the way a population was assembled and sampled can change the meaning of its state distribution.

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CHAPTER 15 OF 20 · Return to biological evidence

15. Consider prolonged occupancy without assuming successful completion

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A visible state can persist without every unit completing the next event during the observation period. Consequently, a high fraction in that state does not alone establish a high rate of successful divisions. The logical issue is the distinction between being on a pathway and completing its next step.

Use an abstract state-card exercise. At the first frame, sixty of one hundred units carry a visible-state card. At the next supplied frame, the same sixty remain in that state and no completion events are recorded. The fraction stays high while the recorded completion count is zero. This is a fictional logic demonstration, not a diagnosis of an actual yeast sample.

An unchanged fraction can also conceal many entries and exits. In another supplied sequence, twenty units leave the state while twenty enter, leaving the fraction unchanged. A stable occupancy does not mean that the same individual units remained in place. Identity tracking and aggregate counting answer different questions.

Ask learners to distinguish these two histories from the same pair of aggregate totals. They should identify why individual trajectories or event records would be useful. This prepares them to read biological claims with care: a state marker can indicate something relevant to a process while remaining insufficient to establish progression, completion or viability for each observed unit.

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CHAPTER 16 OF 20 · Return to biological evidence

16. Preserve unscorable objects and selection limits

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Suppose an image exercise contains one hundred relevant units, but only eighty can be classified clearly. Of those eighty, thirty-two are budded. The scored fraction is 32 / 80 = 0.40. It is not automatically the fraction among all one hundred relevant units.

If the twenty unscorable units could each be either category, the overall fraction is bounded between 32 / 100 = 0.32 and 52 / 100 = 0.52. These are classification bounds, not confidence limits from a sampling model. They show what the supplied unresolved cases alone permit.

Selection can create another issue. Choosing only fields with especially obvious buds changes the represented population. A larger count from those selected fields does not necessarily repair the bias. Record how the image set or fields were chosen, alongside the scoring convention and ambiguous-object count.

A practical evidence check can use existing authorised educational images or supplied drawings. No live biological work is needed. Give two readers the same definition, preserve disagreements and compare conclusions with and without unresolved objects. The learning outcome is an honest account of what was observed. It is stronger than silently deleting difficult cases and presenting the remaining fraction as a complete description of a larger population.

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CHAPTER 17 OF 20 · Practise and continue

17. Add time evidence that answers the intended question

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To investigate division timing, relevant evidence can include appropriately interpreted individual time courses or population counts at specified times, with their measurement conditions and model limits. A fraction sequence can contribute information, but it does not become an absolute duration unless the connection to time and population dynamics is established.

For a purely fictional population-count record, N rises from 100 to 200 over eight model time units. Under a stated exponential model with no loss or counting change, its count-based doubling interval is eight. The corresponding growth rate is ln(2) / 8. This conclusion comes from the count-time record and its assumptions, not from a budding fraction.

Now imagine that the count definition changes halfway through, or objects become separately counted after a cluster separates. The interpretation needs revision. The existing colony-count article develops that different measurement issue. A visible-state fraction cannot automatically correct a changing count unit.

Ask which observation would most directly resolve the uncertainty in a proposed claim. If the claim concerns how long particular individuals take between defined events, an aggregate snapshot is a poor substitute for their relevant trajectories. If it concerns net population change, define the population count and its time basis. Better evidence is evidence matched to the question, rather than simply more numbers of any available kind.

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CHAPTER 18 OF 20 · Practise and continue

18. Attempt a changed-context transfer without importing a calibration

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Use the symmetric balanced exponential toy again, with a terminal visible state and a supplied independent state duration b = 5 abstract time units. An exact toy fraction f = 0.25 gives b / T = ln(1.25) / ln(2), about 0.32193. Therefore T is about 15.5314 units.

Check the answer forward: substituting b / T ≈ 0.32193 into 2^(b/T) − 1 returns 0.25. Under uniform phase, the same fraction and state duration would instead give T = 20. The difference is a model difference, rather than a rounding disagreement.

Next, remove the supplied b. The time estimate no longer follows. We retain a conditional ratio, but cannot establish an absolute T. Finally, change the population from the symmetric toy to real budding yeast and ask whether either computed duration can be transferred. The answer is no without validating the biological model and duration information.

A strong learner explains all three transitions: which calculation is valid under a supplied model, what information is lost when a parameter is removed and why a mathematical population cannot be relabelled a real culture. This transfer check develops useful restraint without discouraging quantitative thinking. The mathematics remains valuable because its premises, consequences and limits are visible enough to test.

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CHAPTER 19 OF 20 · Practise and continue

19. Questions about budding fractions and clocks

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Does a higher budding fraction prove faster growth?

No. A longer visible-state duration or a different population composition can increase the fraction without shortening the cycle. The toy counterexamples demonstrate why the fraction alone does not establish a universal ordering of growth rates.

Is the budding fraction the number of buds divided by the number of unbudded units?

Not under the convention used here. It is budded scored units divided by all scored units. A mother with an attached bud is one budded scored unit in these paper examples. Other scoring conventions must be stated and applied consistently.

Can I use f = b / T for any image?

Only if the model assumptions justify that relationship and b has the intended meaning. Uniform phase is not automatically the age distribution of a growing population. The balanced symmetric toy gives a different relationship even before actual yeast asymmetry is considered.

Is the exponential toy formula a yeast doubling-time estimator?

No. It is derived for identical symmetric division cycles and a terminal state. It demonstrates the role of age weighting. Actual budding yeast has biological features and variation that prevent treating the toy as a calibrated shortcut.

Would scoring many more objects supply the missing clock?

It can improve precision about a fraction under suitable sampling, but it does not create an absent duration parameter or validate a population model. Better precision and a uniquely identifiable time are different achievements.

What is an appropriate first learning activity?

Use supplied drawings, image records or abstract state cards. Define the counted unit, calculate the fraction and construct two histories that fit it. Ask which added time evidence would distinguish them. The task can develop the full reasoning without culturing or manipulating organisms.

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CHAPTER 20 OF 20 · Practise and continue

20. Continue through organism, counting and comparison routes

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For the organism and its wider learning connections, return to the Yeast subject guide. For output comparisons, use designing a fair fermentation comparison. For a different counting ambiguity, read why colony counts can rise when clusters break apart. A visible-state fraction, a gas-output response and a colony count answer different questions.

The biological modelling context was checked on 22 October 2026 against Mayhew and colleagues' 2017 primary study of growth and division dependencies and Orlando and colleagues' branching-process study of budding-index and DNA-content measurements, published in the Annals of Applied Statistics in 2009 and deposited on arXiv in 2010. These sources support the need to account for cell histories and population dynamics. They do not supply the fictional counts or abstract duration values used here.

The uniform-phase model, symmetric deterministic division model, numerical comparisons and transfer tasks are original explanatory constructions. Their assumptions are stated so that a reader can check the argument without confusing it with a biological protocol or a fitted estimate for a real sample.

Connect the method with learning that transfers into life and explore the How X Works hub. The useful final habit is to keep the observed state, the population model and the missing time evidence distinct until a justified connection can be made.

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