Singapore ↔ Tokyo Comparative (Z5↔Z5) — Almost-Code (v1.1)

SYSTEM: Education OS
MODULE: City↔City Comparative
PAIR:
  CITY_A: Singapore City Education OS (Z5) [CANONICAL]
  CITY_B: Tokyo City Education OS (Z5)
REFERENCE: CivOS (Phase P0–P3, Zoom Z0–Z7)

COMPARISON RULES (LOCK):
  - Compare variance and tails, not averages
  - Compare transition shocks and routing gates explicitly
  - Compare repair latency, not “student attitude”
  - Compare transfer reliability (novel wrapper tests)
  - Compare timed execution reliability and recovery capacity

PIPELINE ALIGNMENT:
  Singapore:
    E0 Preschool/K1-K2
    E1 P1-P2
    E2 P3-P4
    E3 P5-P6 (PSLE ramp)
    E4 Sec1-Sec2
    E5 Sec3-Sec4/5 (O/N verification)
    E6 JC/Poly/ITE
  Tokyo (functional):
    E0 Early years
    E1 Elementary early
    E2 Elementary late
    E3 Lower secondary
    E4 Upper secondary / entrance ramp
    E5 University entrance routing / vocational
    E6 Early adulthood routing

TRANSITION ALIGNMENT:
  T1: Early years → formal schooling (language + habit sync)
  T2: Primary/elementary → secondary transition shock
  T3: Pre-high-stakes ramp (SG: P5–6; TK: ramp onset intensification)
  T4: Major routing gate (SG: Sec2→3 & streams; TK: entrance exam routing)
  T5: Post-secondary autonomy jump (SG: JC/Poly; TK: post-entrance autonomy)

SCOREBOARD DIMENSIONS:
  D1: Compression intensity (pace + stakes density)
  D2: Shadow layer intensity (tuition/juku dependence)
  D3: Tail thickness (persistent P0 pockets)
  D4: Repair latency distribution (early vs late)
  D5: Transfer reliability under novelty (wrapper changes)
  D6: Timed execution reliability (timed vs untimed gap)
  D7: Recovery capacity protection (pressure vs consolidation)
  D8: Transition/routing gate shock severity (T1–T5)
  D9: Burnout/disengagement tail risk (capacity loss)

EXPECTED SIGNATURE:
  Singapore:
    D1 HIGH
    D2 HIGH (tuition as shadow repair layer)
    D3 MID (often masked)
    D4 Bimodal (some early, many late near exams)
    D5 MID (risk if practice dominates concept spine)
    D6 HIGH risk of timed collapse if late repair
    D7 MID (pressure high near ramps)
    D8 HIGH at PSLE→Sec and Sec2→3
    D9 MID (stress-driven collapse exists; less culturally “silent”)
  Tokyo:
    D1 MID-HIGH (varies; can be extreme for exam-track)
    D2 HIGH (juku as acceleration + repair layer)
    D3 MID-HIGH (silent tails can persist)
    D4 Often LONG for silent tails (late detection)
    D5 HIGH risk if memorisation dominates
    D6 HIGH risk at routing gates (timed execution)
    D7 HIGH risk if load exceeds recovery capacity
    D8 HIGH at entrance exam routing gates
    D9 HIGH (burnout / disengagement tail is a structural risk)

CROSSWALK FORMAT:
  - present? severity? stage?

FAILURE MODE CROSSWALK:
Language drift (SG F01) ↔ (TK T-F01):
  SG: YES H @E1–E3
  TK: YES H @E0–E2
Practice without model (SG F02) ↔ (TK T-F02/T-F03):
  SG: YES H @E2–E5
  TK: YES H @E2–E4
Compression without buffers (SG F03) ↔ (TK exam ramp without buffers T-F07):
  SG: YES H @E3 (PSLE ramp)
  TK: YES M-H @E4 (entrance ramp)
Shadow masking / stratification (SG F04) ↔ (TK T-F04):
  SG: YES H @E2–E5
  TK: YES H @E2–E5
Transition overload (SG F05) ↔ (TK T2/T3):
  SG: YES H @T3/T4
  TK: YES M-H @T2/T3
Abstraction/novelty collapse (SG F06/F09) ↔ (TK T-F10):
  SG: YES H @Sec2→3 and higher topics
  TK: YES H @E3–E5 when wrapper changes
Time-pressure collapse (SG F07) ↔ (TK T-F06):
  SG: YES H @E3/E5
  TK: YES H @E4/E5
Late repair trap (SG F10) ↔ (TK T-F07):
  SG: YES H @E3/E5
  TK: YES H @E4/E5
Silent tail pockets (SG implicit) ↔ (TK T-F11):
  SG: YES M (masked by tuition)
  TK: YES H (can persist quietly)
Burnout tail (SG implicit) ↔ (TK T-F12):
  SG: YES M
  TK: YES H

PHASE SENSORS (GLOBAL):
  P-S1 Retrieval reliability
  P-S2 Error histogram
  P-S3 Time-to-solve distribution
  P-S4 Transfer check (new wrapper same concept)
  P-S5 Timed stability variance

SYSTEM SENSORS (CITY):
  SG: C-S1 transition shock clustering (PSLE→Sec; Sec2→3)
  SG: C-S2 late repair ratio
  SG: C-S3 tuition masking factor
  TK: T-CS1 shadow intensity (juku hours vs transfer gain)
  TK: T-CS3 pressure load index (study load vs recovery)
  TK: T-CS4 burnout tail index
  TK: T-CS6 novel-format collapse rate
  TK: T-CS7 silent tail detection (stable until cliff)

CALIBRATION REQUIREMENT:
  Both cities must report:
    - timed vs untimed gap
    - transfer under wrapper change
    - repair latency distribution
    - tail thickness (persistent P0)

MECHANISM:
  Singapore failure signature = compression cliffs + late repair + timed execution collapse.
  Tokyo failure signature     = shadow acceleration + pressure amplification + transfer/novelty cliffs + burnout tail.

EXPORT (SG → TK):
  E-SG1: Standardised timed micro-sets + recovery protocol (R4)
         → reduces timed collapse at routing gates.
  E-SG2: Variance-control discipline (weekly stability audits)
         → converts “good practice” into reliable execution.
  E-SG3: Early transition buffer modules (pre-ramp buffer build)
         → prevents last-minute entrance ramp panic.

EXPORT (TK → SG):
  E-TK1: Pressure-safety scheduling (recovery capacity protection)
         → reduces stress-driven volatility and late collapse.
  E-TK2: De-acceleration rule when transfer fails (R8)
         → stop speed, rebuild concept spine, reverify transfer.
  E-TK3: Novelty/transfer testing as default (wrapper variation culture)
         → prevents “practice success” masking transfer weakness.

TRACE: Singapore
  Language drift (F01) →
  practice without model (F02) →
  compression ramp (F03) →
  timed execution collapse (F07) →
  late repair trap (F10)
TRACE: Tokyo
  memorisation dominance (T-F02) →
  acceleration outruns transfer (T-F03) →
  pressure amplifies (T-F05) →
  silent tail persists (T-F11) →
  routing gate ramp (T-F07) →
  timed collapse (T-F06) or burnout collapse (T-F12)

SHARED REPAIR TRACE:
  sensors → early buffer build → transfer audits →
  timed reliability training → pressure-safe scheduling → tail shrink

WORLD REGISTRY UPDATE:
  Add comparative:
    COMP-SG-TYO: Singapore ↔ Tokyo
  Tag dominant contrasts:
    {Compression-Cliff} vs {Pressure-Amplification}
  Link exportable repairs:
    {R4 timed stability} + {R7 pressure safety} + {R3 transfer audits}

PORTS:
  P1: World Education OS (Global Lattice Index)
  P2: Singapore City Education OS (Z5 canonical)
  P3: Tokyo City Education OS (Z5 instance)
  P4: Singapore Nation Education OS (Z6)
  P5: Multi-City Comparative Template
  P6: Education OS Sensors Pack
  P7: Vocabulary OS

LOCK:
  Singapore and Tokyo both produce high performance,
  but fail by different physics:
    Singapore: compression → timed collapse if repair is late.
    Tokyo: pressure + acceleration → transfer/burnout cliffs at routing gates.
  Therefore global adoption requires:
    shared sensors + explicit traces + exportable repairs.