TVIS v0.2 Spec (Delta Page)

Suggested slug: /civos-sensor-tvis-v0-2/
Canonical ID: CivOS.Sensor.TVIS.v0.2
Status: v0.2 (PROPOSED → publish as v0.2; do not overwrite v0.1)

Start Here:


Summary

TVIS v0.2 is a minimal upgrade that keeps the same core ratios and thresholds as v0.1 (so backtests remain comparable), while improving high-definition reliability by adding:

  • VMark (Verification Markers) to measure credibility (auditability + mechanisms + measurement)
  • Hope Theatre Penalty (HTP) to penalize promise-heavy futures without feasibility
  • quote/attribution/negation handling to reduce false alarms
  • NIT Proxy Hook to detect narrative irreversibility and force a TRUNCATE recommendation

Result intent: keep or improve lead time to rupture while reducing false alarms and better ranking “true risk windows.”


Definition Lock (v0.2, in one paragraph)

Hope is not optimism; hope is credible Future Pull. In TVIS language that means F₃ feasibility markers(budget/staff/timeline/mechanisms) plus VMark verification behaviors (measurement/auditability/independent review). When promises (F₁) rise but feasibility/verification do not, TVIS v0.2 treats it as Hope Theatre—a coordination instability pattern that often precedes failure.


What Stayed the Same (comparability lock)

  • Window spec defaults (≈800 tokens, 50% overlap)
  • FDR / RDR / BSI formulas
  • GREEN / AMBER / RED threshold rules
  • Failure mode tag set (FantasySpiral, GrindTrap, CassandraTrap, RevisionistLoop, etc.)
  • Fence triggers WATCH / TRUNCATE / STITCH (except NIT override)

What Changed (the upgrade)

1) Credibility axis: VMark

Adds “verification behavior” as an explicit signal.
This helps distinguish:

  • real buildable futures (credible)
    from
  • narrative-only futures (fragile)

2) Hope Theatre Penalty (HTP)

Penalizes regimes where:

  • promises (F₁) are high
  • feasibility (F₃) and VMark are low
    This is the most common source of “high hope, low truth” instability.

3) False alarm reduction

Simple but powerful:

  • quote discount
  • attribution stance detection
  • stronger negation handling for M₋

4) NIT Proxy Hook

When retrograde narrative accelerates and dehumanization/absolutism rises while Oracle collapses, v0.2 can flag a Narrative Irreversibility Threshold proxy and recommend TRUNCATE immediately.

TVIS v0.2 Super-Compact Diagram (Callout Box Size)

Canonical ID: CivOS.Diagram.TVIS.Compact.v0.2
Status: LOCKED

[CivOS.Diagram.TVIS.Compact.v0.2]
Text → Window (N≈800) → Count {F,P,M+,M-} + Roles {V,O,R}
Compute Ratios:
FDR=(f+αm+ε)/(p+ε) RDR=(m-+ε)/(f+ε) BSI=(p+ε)/(f+αm+ε)
State: GREEN / AMBER / RED
v0.2 Credibility: VMark + F3_share
Penalty: HTP (F1 high, F3+VMark low)
Derivatives: dFDR/dt, dRDR/dt, dBSI/dt
NIT proxy gate (optional): irreversibility
Fence Output: NONE / WATCH / TRUNCATE / STITCH
+ Publish Failure Trace (required)

TVIS Diagram Legend (8–12 lines)

Canonical ID: CivOS.Diagram.TVIS.Legend.v0.2
Status: LOCKED

[CivOS.Diagram.TVIS.Legend.v0.2]
F = Future Pull (F1 commitment, F2 build, F3 feasibility)
P = Present Load (constraints/repair/cost/compliance)
M+ = Useful Memory (lessons/guardrails) = “Wisdom”
M- = Regressive Memory (nostalgia/grievance/scapegoat/purity)
V/O/R = Visionary / Oracle / Operator role proportions
f,p,m+,m- = intensities per 1000 tokens
FDR = Forward Drive Ratio (future propulsion vs load)
RDR = Retrograde Drag Ratio (past drag vs future)
BSI = Burnout/Stall Index (load dominance)
VMark = Verification Markers (auditability/metrics/mechanisms)
F3_share = feasibility share of future language
HTP = Hope Theatre Penalty (promise without feasibility/verification)
NIT_proxy = Narrative irreversibility gate (hardening + acceleration)
Fence = WATCH/TRUNCATE/STITCH actions

TVIS v0.2 Single Master Diagram (Text-Only, Paste-Ready)

Canonical ID: CivOS.Diagram.TVIS.Master.v0.2
Use: One diagram you can paste into the TVIS Toolkit + Sensor pages.
Status: LOCKED (forward-only)

[CivOS.Diagram.TVIS.Master.v0.2]
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ INPUT: LANGUAGE STREAMS │
│ (news / speeches / memos / conversations) │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ WINDOWING / SAMPLING (LOCK) │
│ N≈800 tokens (300–1500), stride 50% │
│ cadence: daily / weekly / monthly │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────┐ ▼ ┌───────────────────────────┐
│ TIME-VECTOR COUNTS │──────────────────▶│ ROLE OVERLAY (V/O/R) │
│ F / P / M+ / M- │ │ sentence tagging │
│ │ │ V: Visionary (future) │
│ F = Future Pull │ │ O: Oracle (metrics/real) │
│ F1 commitment (talk) │ │ R: Operator (execute) │
│ F2 build (capability) │ └───────────────────────────┘
│ F3 feasibility (budget) │ │
│ time anchors │ ▼
│ │ ┌───────────────────────────┐
│ P = Present Load │ │ ROLE MISMATCH FLAGS │
│ constraints/repair │ │ FantasySpiral / GrindTrap │
│ cost/attrition/compliance│ │ CassandraTrap / Revisionist│
│ │ └───────────────────────────┘
│ M+ = Useful Memory │ │
│ lessons / guardrails │ ▼
│ M- = Regressive Memory │ ┌───────────────────────────┐
│ nostalgia/grievance │ │ ROLE MISMATCH SCORE RM │
│ scapegoat/purity/absolute│ │ RM ∈ [0..~1.2] (v0.2 cap) │
└───────────────────────────┘ └───────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ NORMALIZE (per 1000 tokens) │
│ f, p, m+, m- │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ CORE RATIOS (LOCKED) │
│ FDR = (f + α·m+ + ε) / (p + ε) │
│ RDR = (m- + ε) / (f + ε) │
│ BSI = (p + ε) / (f + α·m+ + ε) │
│ α=0.7, ε=0.25 │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ STATE CLASSIFIER (LOCKED) │
│ GREEN: FDR≥1.2 AND RDR≤0.6 │
│ AMBER: else if stall band or BSI≥1.2 │
│ RED: FDR<0.9 OR RDR>1.0 OR RM≥0.8 │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ v0.2 CREDIBILITY AXIS (NEW) │
│ VMark = verification behaviors │
│ F3_share = F3/(F1+F2+F3) │
│ HTP = Hope Theatre Penalty │
│ (F1 high, F3+VMark low) │
│ CB = Credibility Bonus (VMark + F3_share) │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ TVIS SCORE (0–100) │
│ uses rF,rR,rB,rM + 0.6*HTP - 0.4*CB │
│ (ranking + urgency; thresholds unchanged) │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ DERIVATIVES (HD EARLY WARNING) │
│ EMA smooth → dFDR/dt, dRDR/dt, dBSI/dt │
│ WATCH if acceleration persists │
│ TRUNCATE if spike / fast rise │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ NIT PROXY GATE (HOOK) │
│ if RDR high + accelerating + dehumanization│
│ + absolutism + Oracle collapse → NIT=1 │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ FENCE ACTION OUTPUT │
│ NONE / WATCH / TRUNCATE / STITCH │
│ WATCH: AMBER persists │
│ TRUNCATE: RED persists OR RDR spike OR NIT │
│ STITCH: FDR recovery + feasibility rising │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ REQUIRED FAILURE MODE TRACE (PUBLISH) │
│ F↓ + P↑ → stall │
│ M-↑ → retrograde drift │
│ O collapse + mismatch → irreversibility │
│ Fence: truncate → stitch │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘

Mini-caption (1 paragraph, paste under the diagram)

TVIS reads language as coordination physics: Future Pull (F), Present Load (P), and Memory Bind (M₊/M₋), with a Visionary/Oracle/Operator overlay. It computes FDR/RDR/BSI to classify GREEN/AMBER/RED, then uses v0.2 credibility (VMark + F₃ share + Hope Theatre Penalty) plus derivatives and an optional NIT proxy gate to drive Fence actions: WATCH, TRUNCATE, STITCH.

Summary

TVIS v0.2 is a minimal upgrade that increases high-definition reliability and reduces false alarms by adding:

  1. VMark (Verification Markers) integrated into scoring
  2. Hope Theatre Penalty (promise-heavy futures without feasibility/verification)
  3. Quote/attribution/negation improvements
  4. Formal lane-pack registry compatibility
  5. NIT proxy hook for narrative irreversibility escalation

What stays stable: FDR/RDR/BSI core ratios, windowing defaults, and GREEN/AMBER/RED thresholds (schema is extended, not renamed).


Definition Lock (v0.2)

  • F₁ Commitment Talk: promises / intention language
  • F₂ Build Talk: capability-building verbs
  • F₃ Feasibility: budget/staff/timeline/milestones/mechanisms
  • VMark: verification behaviors (auditability + measurement + mechanisms + independent checks)
  • Hope (CivOS): credible Future Pull = F₃ + VMark support (not just F₁)

Lock: Hope without F₃/VMark is not propulsion; it is instability risk.


Canonical Spec Block (v0.2)

[CivOS.Sensor.TVIS.v0.2]
WINDOW:
N_target=800 tokens (min 300, max 1500), stride=50%
COUNTS:
F1_commitment, F2_build, F3_feasibility, F_time_anchor
P_constraint, P_repair, P_cost_attrition, P_compliance_drag
Mplus_lessons, Mplus_guardrails
Mminus_nostalgia, Mminus_grievance, Mminus_purity_rollback, Mminus_scapegoat, Mminus_absolutism
VMark_verification
NORMALIZE (per 1000 tokens):
f1,f2,f3, p, m+, m-, vmark
CONSTANTS:
α=0.7, ε=0.25
CORE RATIOS (unchanged):
f = f1 + f2 + f3 + f_time_anchor
FDR = (f + α*m+ + ε)/(p + ε)
RDR = (m- + ε)/(f + ε)
BSI = (p + ε)/(f + α*m+ + ε)
FEASIBILITY SHARE:
F3_share = f3 / max(ε, (f1+f2+f3))
CREDIBILITY (new):
VMark_norm = clamp(vmark / VMark_ref, 0, 1)
F3_share_norm = clamp(F3_share / 0.55, 0, 1) # 0.55 is a soft target
HOPE THEATRE PENALTY (new):
F1_norm = clamp(f1 / F1_ref, 0, 1)
F3_norm = clamp(f3 / F3_ref, 0, 1)
HTP = clamp(F1_norm - F3_norm, 0, 1) * clamp(1 - VMark_norm, 0, 1)
CREDIBILITY BONUS (new):
CB = 0.5*VMark_norm + 0.5*F3_share_norm
ROLE PROFILE:
V_r,O_r,R_r from sentence tagging (same as v0.1)
RoleMismatch computed (same flags as v0.1)
SCORE (v0.2):
rF = 1 - min(FDR,1.5)/1.5
rR = min(RDR,2.0)/2.0
rB = min(BSI,2.0)/2.0
rM = min(RoleMismatch,1.2)/1.2
TVIS_score = 100 * clamp( (rF+rR+rB+rM + 0.6*HTP - 0.4*CB) / 4.6, 0, 1 )
STATE THRESHOLDS (unchanged):
GREEN if FDR≥1.2 and RDR≤0.6
AMBER if 0.9≤FDR<1.2 OR 0.6<RDR≤1.0 OR BSI≥1.2
RED if FDR<0.9 OR RDR>1.0 OR RoleMismatch≥0.8
FENCE (unchanged rules, with NIT override hook):
WATCH if AMBER persists k=2
TRUNCATE if RED persists k=3 OR RDR spike>1.4 OR NIT_proxy=1
STITCH if post-RED: FDR≥1.1 for 2 windows AND feasibility rising

Quote / Attribution / Negation Handling (v0.2)

Quote discount rule

  • If a match occurs inside quotation marks, multiply weight by 0.7
    (unless the surrounding verbs indicate endorsement: support/agree/call for)

Attribution/stance rule

  • If extreme language is followed by claimed/alleged/said, multiply by 0.85
  • If followed by denied/refuted/condemned, multiply by 0.4

Negation window upgrade (M₋ only)

  • Negation window extends from 4 → 6 tokens for M₋ matches.

Failure Mode Trace (required)

F1↑ without F3/VMark → HTP↑ → unstable “hope theatre”
P↑ → BSI↑ → grind trap formation
M-↑ + Oracle collapse → RDR↑ → retrograde drift
NIT_proxy fires → TRUNCATE recommended
Repair: reduce P + restore O + increase F3 + add VMark + convert M- to M+

Change Log (v0.2)

  • Added: VMark + HTP + CB
  • Improved: quote/attribution/negation handling
  • Added: NIT hook (proxy trigger may override to TRUNCATE)
  • Unchanged: FDR/RDR/BSI, thresholds, windowing, base schema

(2) VMark Lexicon Add-on v0.2

Suggested slug: /civos-lexicon-tvis-vmark-v0-2/
Canonical ID: CivOS.Lexicon.TVIS.VMark.v0.2
Status: LOCKED

Summary

VMark is the “credibility axis” for TVIS. It counts verification behaviors that make future claims auditable.

VMark Dictionary Block (paste-ready)

[CivOS.Lexicon.TVIS.VMark.v0.2]
VMARK_VERIFICATION:
weight: 1.4
terms:
- audited
- audit
- independent review
- external review
- oversight
- publish the data
- transparency report
- metric
- KPI
- benchmark
- evaluation
- test plan
- validation
- verification
- postmortem
- after action review
- root cause analysis
- protocol ID
- SOP ID
- standard operating procedure
- compliance test
- reporting schedule
- timeline
- milestone
- deliverable
- procurement
- contract
- staffing plan
- headcount
- budget line
- appropriation
VMARK_NUMERIC_PATTERNS:
weight: 1.2
patterns:
- "\\$\\s?\\d" # dollar sign numbers
- "\\d+\\s?%" # percentages
- "\\b\\d{4}\\b" # years
- "\\bQ[1-4]\\b" # quarters
- "\\b\\d+\\s?(weeks|months|years)\\b"
VMARK_ACCOUNTABILITY:
weight: 1.5
terms:
- owner
- accountable
- responsibility
- assigned
- deadline
- deliver by
- report by

Interpretation Lock

High VMark + high F₃ share means “hope is real propulsion.”
Low VMark with high promises means “hope theatre.”


(3) LanePack Registry v0.2 (Formal Spec)

Suggested slug: /civos-registry-tvis-lanepacks-v0-2/
Canonical ID: CivOS.Registry.TVIS.LanePacks.v0.2
Status: LOCKED

Summary

Lane packs extend TVIS without mutating core semantics. They are small add-ons (terms/patterns/weights) for a specific lane (GOV/EDU/FIN/DEF/etc.) with strict versioning.

Registry Spec Block

[CivOS.Registry.TVIS.LanePacks.v0.2]
LanePackRecord:
LanePackID: "TVIS.LanePack.{LANE}.v{X_Y}"
Lane: GOV|EDU|FIN|DEF|HEALTH|TECH|OTHER
BaseLexicon: CivOS.Lexicon.TVIS.v0.1
Adds:
- section_name: (e.g., P_cost_attrition)
add_terms: [...]
add_patterns: [...]
weight_bounds: [0.8, 1.8]
FalsePositiveNotes:
- "term X can be metaphorical; discount if paired with word Y"
CalibrationNotes:
- baseline period used
- any threshold nudges (must be documented)
Versioning:
- forward-only
- no renames
- deprecations allowed (mark deprecated, do not delete)

Required Rule (anti-drift)

Lane packs may add terms, but must never:

  • redefine categories (F/P/M)
  • change core ratio formulas
  • change thresholds without publishing a “threshold patch note”

(4) NIT Proxy Hook v0.2 (Narrative Irreversibility)

Suggested slug: /civos-sensor-nit-proxy-v0-2/
Canonical ID: CivOS.Sensor.NIT.Proxy.v0.2
Status: LOCKED

Summary

NIT Proxy is a small hook that fires when narrative drift becomes irreversible without intervention. It is not a full NIT sensor; it is a compatible early gate that works with TVIS immediately.

NIT Proxy Spec Block

[CivOS.Sensor.NIT.Proxy.v0.2]
Inputs (per window):
RDR, dRDR_dt
Mminus_absolutism
DehumanizationMarkers (subset of scapegoat/purity terms)
O_r
Trigger:
NIT_proxy = 1 if:
(RDR > 1.2) AND
(dRDR_dt > +0.12 for 2 windows) AND
(Mminus_absolutism high OR DehumanizationMarkers high) AND
(O_r < 0.2)
else 0
Outputs:
NIT_proxy: 0/1
NIT_reason: short string
Fence Override:
if NIT_proxy==1 → recommend TRUNCATE

Dehumanization Markers v0.2 (starter list)

  • vermin, infestation, purge, cleanse, enemies within, traitors, illegitimate

Failure Mode Trace (required)

RDR high + accelerating + dehumanization + Oracle collapse
→ narrative hardening beyond easy reversal
→ TRUNCATE required to prevent irreversible crossing

TVIS v0.2 Backtest Update Pack (Re-run + Compare v0.1 vs v0.2)

Canonical ID: CivOS.Packet.TVIS.BacktestUpdate.v0.2
Purpose: Re-run the 6 backtests under TVIS v0.2 and publish an explicit comparison: what changed, why it’s better, and whether false alarms reduced.
Status: LOCKED (forward-only)


1) What changes when you re-run in v0.2

Unchanged (core comparability)

  • Window spec (N≈800, stride 50%)
  • Ratios (FDR/RDR/BSI)
  • GREEN/AMBER/RED thresholds
  • FailureModeTags (same names)
  • Fence WATCH/TRUNCATE/STITCH logic (except NIT override)

Changed (the “upgrade effect” you should observe)

  • TVIS_score becomes more robust:
  • penalizes Hope Theatre (F₁-heavy futures without feasibility/verification)
  • rewards Credibility (VMark + F₃ share)
  • Reduced false alarms from:
  • quote/attribution handling
  • improved negation handling (M₋)
  • New gates:
  • NIT_proxy can force TRUNCATE when narratives harden irreversibly.

2) Re-run Protocol (exact steps)

Use the same sources and windowing as the v0.1 backtests.

Step A — Keep the same case packet

Do NOT change:

  • T0
  • horizon H
  • cadence
  • source set
  • window slicing

Step B — Add v0.2 fields

In each window, compute and log:

  • vmark (VMark_verification per 1000 tokens)
  • F3_share
  • HTP (Hope Theatre Penalty)
  • CB (Credibility Bonus)
  • NIT_proxy (0/1)
  • NIT_reason

Step C — Compute v0.2 score

Use the v0.2 formula:

  • TVIS_score_v0.2

Step D — Keep state thresholds unchanged

State is still computed from FDR/RDR/BSI/RoleMismatch.
Score is an intensity measure for ranking and comparison.

Step E — Apply NIT override to Fence

If NIT_proxy=1 → Fence recommendation defaults to TRUNCATE.


3) Required Publishable Artifact: v0.1 vs v0.2 Comparison Table

Use this exact table format (one per backtest).

Comparison Table (copy/paste)

Fieldv0.1v0.2Interpretation
First AMBER (t)__
First sustained RED (t, k≥2)__Lead time shift
Peak TVIS_score__Intensity/urgency
Lead time to T0 (windows)__Earlier/later detection
False alarm windows__Should drop in v0.2
VMark (avg in pre-T0)n/a_Credibility baseline
F3_share (avg pre-T0)(proxy)_Feasibility share
HTP spikes (count)n/a_Hope theatre detection
NIT_proxy fired?n/a0/1Irreversibility gate
Primary Tag__Tag stability check
Fence recommended__Action impact

Lock: Always include at least one “stable” period row where no rupture happened to evaluate false alarms.


4) Re-run Prompts (drop-in deltas for your Runner Pack)

Use your existing Runner Pack prompts, plus these two inserts.

Insert Prompt A — VMark/HTP/CB/NIT computations

Compute additional v0.2 fields per window:
vmark = 1000*(VMark_total/N)
F3_share = f3 / max(0.25, (f1+f2+f3))
Compute VMark_norm and F3_share_norm:
- VMark_norm = clamp(vmark / VMark_ref, 0, 1) where VMark_ref=6.0
- F3_share_norm = clamp(F3_share / 0.55, 0, 1)
Compute F1_norm and F3_norm:
- F1_norm = clamp(f1 / F1_ref, 0, 1) where F1_ref=10.0
- F3_norm = clamp(f3 / F3_ref, 0, 1) where F3_ref=6.0
HTP = clamp(F1_norm - F3_norm, 0, 1) * clamp(1 - VMark_norm, 0, 1)
CB = 0.5*VMark_norm + 0.5*F3_share_norm
NIT_proxy = 1 if:
(RDR>1.2) AND (dRDR_dt>+0.12 for 2 windows) AND
(Mminus_absolutism high OR dehumanization markers high) AND
(O_r<0.2)
Else 0
Return these fields appended.

Insert Prompt B — v0.2 score

Compute TVIS_score_v0.2:
TVIS_score_v0.2 = 100*clamp((rF+rR+rB+rM + 0.6*HTP - 0.4*CB)/4.6, 0, 1)
Keep State thresholds unchanged.
If NIT_proxy=1, set Fence recommendation to TRUNCATE (override).
Append TVIS_score_v0.2 to the CSV.

5) What “Better” looks like (acceptance criteria)

For each backtest, v0.2 is an improvement if at least two of these hold:

  1. Same or earlier first sustained RED (lead time not worse)
  2. Lower false alarm rate in stable periods (quote/negation fix effect)
  3. Better ranking: true pre-rupture windows are higher TVIS_score than irrelevant windows
  4. HTP correctly fires in “promise-heavy” regimes (fantasy spiral cases)
  5. NIT_proxy fires only near true narrative hardening (not everywhere)

6) “Series-level” publishable statement (you can paste into the hub)

TVIS v0.2 preserves the core ratios and thresholds of v0.1 for comparability,
but adds a credibility axis (VMark), penalizes hope theatre (promise without feasibility),
reduces quote/negation false alarms, and introduces a NIT proxy gate for narrative irreversibility.
In backtests, v0.2 should keep or improve lead time while reducing false alarms.

7) Update the 6 Backtests (what to change in each article)

For each backtest article page, add a short “v0.2 update section”:

v0.2 Update Block (paste)

  • New: VMark + HTP + CB + NIT proxy
  • Result shift: first RED _ → ; false alarms → _
  • Interpretation: hope theatre / credibility / irreversibility signal

TVIS v0.2 Comparison Article (Series-Level)

Suggested slug: /civos-tvis-v0-2-comparison/
Canonical ID: CivOS.Article.TVIS.v0.2.Comparison
Status: Publishable (works even before you run all cases; fill tables as you complete runs)


Summary

TVIS v0.2 is a minimal upgrade that keeps the same core ratios and thresholds as v0.1 (so backtests remain comparable), while improving high-definition reliability by adding:

  • VMark (Verification Markers) to measure credibility (auditability + mechanisms + measurement)
  • Hope Theatre Penalty (HTP) to penalize promise-heavy futures without feasibility
  • quote/attribution/negation handling to reduce false alarms
  • NIT Proxy Hook to detect narrative irreversibility and force a TRUNCATE recommendation

Result intent: keep or improve lead time to rupture while reducing false alarms and better ranking “true risk windows.”


Definition Lock (v0.2, in one paragraph)

Hope is not optimism; hope is credible Future Pull. In TVIS language that means F₃ feasibility markers (budget/staff/timeline/mechanisms) plus VMark verification behaviors (measurement/auditability/independent review). When promises (F₁) rise but feasibility/verification do not, TVIS v0.2 treats it as Hope Theatre—a coordination instability pattern that often precedes failure.


What Stayed the Same (comparability lock)

  • Window spec defaults (≈800 tokens, 50% overlap)
  • FDR / RDR / BSI formulas
  • GREEN / AMBER / RED threshold rules
  • Failure mode tag set (FantasySpiral, GrindTrap, CassandraTrap, RevisionistLoop, etc.)
  • Fence triggers WATCH / TRUNCATE / STITCH (except NIT override)

What Changed (the upgrade)

1) Credibility axis: VMark

Adds “verification behavior” as an explicit signal.
This helps distinguish:

  • real buildable futures (credible)
    from
  • narrative-only futures (fragile)

2) Hope Theatre Penalty (HTP)

Penalizes regimes where:

  • promises (F₁) are high
  • feasibility (F₃) and VMark are low
    This is the most common source of “high hope, low truth” instability.

3) False alarm reduction

Simple but powerful:

  • quote discount
  • attribution stance detection
  • stronger negation handling for M₋

4) NIT Proxy Hook

When retrograde narrative accelerates and dehumanization/absolutism rises while Oracle collapses, v0.2 can flag a Narrative Irreversibility Threshold proxy and recommend TRUNCATE immediately.


Series Comparison Tables (fill as you run)

Below are the standardized tables for the 6 backtests.
You can publish them with blanks, then fill them as you re-run.


Backtest #1 — Models Fail First (Template Validation)

Page: /civos-backtest-tvis-model-fail-v0-1/

Fieldv0.1v0.2Interpretation
First AMBER (t)__
First sustained RED (t, k≥2)__Lead time shift
Peak TVIS_score__Intensity/urgency
Lead time to T0 (windows)__Earlier/later
False alarm windows__Should drop
VMark (avg pre-T0)n/a_Credibility
F3_share (avg pre-T0)(proxy)_Feasibility share
HTP spikes (count)n/a_Hope theatre detection
NIT_proxy fired?n/a0/1Irreversibility gate
Primary Tag__Tag stability
Fence recommended__Action impact

Backtest #2 — Escalation Drift

Page: /civos-backtest-tvis-escalation-drift-v0-1/

Fieldv0.1v0.2Interpretation
First AMBER (t)__
First sustained RED (t, k≥2)__Lead time shift
Peak TVIS_score__Intensity
Lead time to T0 (windows)__Earlier/later
False alarm windows__Quote/stance fix helps
VMark (avg pre-T0)n/a_Often low in escalation rhetoric
F3_share (avg pre-T0)(proxy)_Feasibility share
HTP spikes (count)n/a_Promise-like futures without feasibility
NIT_proxy fired?n/a0/1Expected near hardening
Primary Tag__Often RevisionistLoop/BlameCascade
Fence recommended__NIT may force TRUNCATE

Backtest #3 — Election Narrative Drift (False Alarm Test)

Page: /civos-backtest-tvis-election-drift-v0-1/

Fieldv0.1v0.2Interpretation
First AMBER (t)__
First sustained RED (t, k≥2)__Should not appear in stable transitions
Peak TVIS_score__
Lead time to T0 (windows)__
False alarm windows__v0.2 should reduce
VMark (avg pre-T0)n/a_Feasibility/verification should matter
F3_share (avg pre-T0)(proxy)_
HTP spikes (count)n/a_Should fire on “promise-only” periods
NIT_proxy fired?n/a0/1Should be rare here
Primary Tag__
Fence recommended__

Backtest #4 — Institutional Hollowing (Slow Attrition)

Page: /civos-backtest-tvis-institutional-hollowing-v0-1/

Fieldv0.1v0.2Interpretation
First AMBER (t)__
First sustained RED (t, k≥2)__Slow burn detection
Peak TVIS_score__
Lead time to T0 (windows)__Months lead
False alarm windows__
VMark (avg pre-T0)n/a_Often present in reports
F3_share (avg pre-T0)(proxy)_Feasibility drop matters
HTP spikes (count)n/a_
NIT_proxy fired?n/a0/1Usually 0
Primary Tag__InstitutionalHollowing
Fence recommended__Reduce P + rebuild pipelines

Backtest #5 — Tech/Market Hype Spiral (Hope Theatre Test)

Page: /civos-backtest-tvis-hype-spiral-v0-1/

Fieldv0.1v0.2Interpretation
First AMBER (t)__
First sustained RED (t, k≥2)__Lead time shift
Peak TVIS_score__v0.2 should spike more clearly
Lead time to T0 (windows)__Earlier detection expected
False alarm windows__
VMark (avg pre-T0)n/a_Usually low in hype regimes
F3_share (avg pre-T0)(proxy)_Feasibility scarcity
HTP spikes (count)n/a_Should be high
NIT_proxy fired?n/a0/1Usually 0
Primary Tag__FantasySpiral
Fence recommended__Require feasibility + verification

Backtest #6 — Repair Success (Truncation + Stitching)

Page: /civos-backtest-tvis-repair-success-v0-1/

Fieldv0.1v0.2Interpretation
First AMBER (t)__
First sustained RED (t, k≥2)__
Peak TVIS_score__
Recovery point (STITCH)__v0.2 should confirm via VMark
False alarm windows__
VMark (avg post-intervention)n/a_Should rise
F3_share (avg post-intervention)(proxy)_Should rise
HTP spikes (count)n/a_Should fall post-repair
NIT_proxy fired?n/a0/1Should be 0 post-repair
Primary Tag__
Fence recommended__STITCH confirmation stronger

Series-Level Conclusion Template (fill after runs)

What improved in v0.2

  • False alarms reduced (quote/stance/negation handling)
  • Hope theatre detected (HTP spikes align with narrative-only regimes)
  • Credible futures rewarded (VMark + F3_share distinguish build vs talk)
  • Irreversibility gated (NIT proxy triggers TRUNCATE when narratives harden)

What remains unchanged (by design)

  • The core ratios and state thresholds — so backtests remain comparable and stable.

v0.2 failure mode trace (generic)

F1↑ without F3/VMark → HTP↑
P↑ → BSI↑
M-↑ + Oracle collapse → RDR↑
If acceleration + absolutism/dehumanization → NIT_proxy=1 → TRUNCATE
Repair: reduce P + restore O + raise F3 + raise VMark + convert M- to M+

FAQ

Do we still need v0.1? Yes. v0.1 is the stable baseline for comparison and historic runs.
Is v0.2 a rewrite? No. It’s an extension that adds credibility and reduces false alarms.
Can this run at Z0 (normal conversations)? Yes—VMark becomes “specific plans, commitments, measurements” at personal scale.


TVIS “Hope–Grind–Wisdom” Integration Patch v0.2

Canonical ID: CivOS.Patch.TVIS.HGW.v0.2
Status: LOCKED (add-on; does not mutate TVIS core)
Goal: Map your triad cleanly into CivOS/TVIS while preventing the main trap: Wisdom ≠ nostalgia.


1) Definition Lock (HGW → TVIS)

Hope = Future Pull (F), but credible

  • Hope = F₃ + VMark supported Future Pull
  • Hope is not raw promise (F₁). Raw promise = Hope Theatre risk.

Grind = Present Load (P)

  • grind is the live maintenance + repair + constraints + backlog load
  • not “bad” by default; it’s the cost of staying operational

Wisdom = Useful Memory (M₊)

  • lessons, guardrails, postmortems, thresholds, protocols
  • Wisdom is memory that increases future survivability

Hard lock:

  • Wisdom = M₊
  • Nostalgia/Grievance/Scapegoat/Purity = M₋ (regressive memory), not wisdom.

2) The missing piece you sensed: “Past” splits into two types

Your “Wisdom = Past” is correct only if we split Past into:

  • Past₊ (Wisdom / M₊): “we learned; here are guardrails; prevent recurrence”
  • Past₋ (Retrograde / M₋): “return/restore; betrayal; scapegoat; purity rollback”

That split is exactly why TVIS works: it can tell when “past language” is stabilizing vs destabilizing.


3) HGW Indices (direct, measurable, TVIS-compatible)

We define three indices (each 0–100) derived from existing TVIS fields.

3.1 Hope Index (HI)

Hope should reward feasibility + verification, and punish theatre.

HI = 100 * clamp( 0.55*F3_share_norm + 0.45*VMark_norm - 0.60*HTP , 0, 1 )

Interpretation:

  • high HI = credible future propulsion
  • low HI = future pull is weak or theatrical

3.2 Grind Index (GI)

Grind is dominated by present load and stall.

GI = 100 * clamp( norm_BSI(BSI) , 0, 1 )

Interpretation:

  • high GI = system is load-dominated (risk of stall/burnout)
  • low GI = load is manageable

3.3 Wisdom Index (WI)

Wisdom must be M₊, not M₋.

WI = 100 * clamp( m_plus / (m_plus + m_minus + 0.25) , 0, 1 )

Interpretation:

  • high WI = memory is mostly lessons/guardrails
  • low WI = memory has turned retrograde (grievance/rollback)

4) The core law you stated, now as a sensor

“When hope is lesser than grind, we start looking backwards.”

We can formalize this:

4.1 Backward Drift Condition (BDC)

BDC = 1 if (HI < GI) AND (RDR rising OR RDR > 1.0)
else 0

Meaning:

  • Hope is insufficient to carry load, so the system seeks comfort/control in retrograde narratives.

4.2 “Hope collapse under grind” early warning

This is the HD version: detect the transition before it hardens.

HopeCollapseWarning = 1 if:
(dHI/dt < -8 for 2 windows) AND (GI > 60) AND (dRDR/dt > +0.12)
else 0

Output: WATCH → TRUNCATE if it persists.


5) Mapping HGW to Visionary / Oracle / Operator (time roles)

Your insight can be made precise:

  • Visionary primarily supplies Hope (HI)
    (but must include feasibility + verification or it becomes theatre)
  • Operator carries Grind (GI)
    (must keep load bounded; otherwise the system stalls)
  • Oracle converts Past into Wisdom (WI)
    (lessons + constraints + thresholds that keep the future feasible)

Role failure patterns (HGW form)

  • Visionary failure: HI collapses into HTP (promise without feasibility)
  • Operator failure: GI saturates (overload, burnout, backlog spiral)
  • Oracle failure: WI collapses (metrics vanish; M₋ narratives take over)

This creates a clean triad: Hope–Grind–Wisdom is not separate from V/O/R; it is the time-axis projection of the roles.


6) HGW Output Block (paste into any backtest)

Add this to your per-window log:

HGW:
HI=____ GI=____ WI=____
BDC=0/1
HopeCollapseWarning=0/1
Interpretation (1 line): __________________

7) Failure Mode Trace (HGW version, required)

Grind (GI) ↑ → Hope (HI) ↓ → BDC=1
→ Memory shifts from M+ to M- (WI ↓)
→ Retrograde drag rises (RDR ↑)
→ Narrative hardens (NIT_proxy may fire)
Fence: reduce P + restore O + convert past into M+ + rebuild feasible hope

8) Why this helps with “moon race / Civ game” intuition

Those epochs are “Future Pull regimes.” TVIS/HGW lets you separate:

  • real propulsion (feasible + verified)
    from
  • theatre (talk-only futures)
    and detect when load/constraints cause societies to flip into retrograde frames (“restore, take back, purge, scapegoat”).

HGW Micro-Dictionary Pack v0.2 + Combined Output Schema

Canonical IDs:

  • CivOS.Lexicon.TVIS.HGW.v0.2
  • CivOS.Schema.TVIS.CSV.v0.2
    Status: LOCKED (add-on; does not mutate core TVIS categories)

1) HGW Micro-Dictionary Pack v0.2 (Supplement)

Purpose: Improve discrimination between:

  • Hope (credible) vs Hope Theatre (promise-only)
  • Wisdom (M₊) vs Retrograde past (M₋)
  • Grind (bounded load) vs Grind trap (stall/burnout)

This pack is a thin overlay. Keep the main TVIS lexicon stable; these terms mainly strengthen F₁/F₃, VMark, M₊/M₋, and P classification.

[CivOS.Lexicon.TVIS.HGW.v0.2]
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
# HOPE (credible future) boosters → should correlate with F3 + VMark
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
HGW_HOPE_CREDIBLE:
weight: 1.2
terms:
- funded
- budget line
- appropriated
- staffed
- headcount
- delivery milestone
- implementation plan
- procurement contract
- pilot results
- test results
- validated
- audited
- independent review
- publish metrics
- progress report
- timeline with milestones
- phased rollout
- accountability owner
- deadline
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
# HOPE THEATRE markers → strengthen HTP detection (F1 high, F3/VMark low)
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
HGW_HOPE_THEATRE:
weight: 1.3
terms:
- bold vision
- game changer
- revolutionary
- unprecedented
- world-leading
- historic
- once in a generation
- we will lead
- we will dominate
- guarantee
- no doubt
- inevitable
- trust us
- soon
- very soon
- in no time
- countless
- massive
patterns:
- "we will (.*) (soon|very soon|in no time)"
- "(revolutionary|unprecedented) (plan|strategy|vision)"
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
# GRIND (present load) markers → refine P and grind trap
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
HGW_GRIND_LOAD:
weight: 1.1
terms:
- backlog
- firefighting
- overwhelmed
- stretched thin
- under-resourced
- patchwork
- temporary fix
- stopgap
- crisis management
- overtime
- fatigue
- burnout
- staff shortage
- hiring freeze
- attrition
- turnover
- compliance burden
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
# WISDOM (M+) markers → lessons + guardrails
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
HGW_WISDOM_MPLUS:
weight: 1.3
terms:
- lesson learned
- root cause
- after action review
- postmortem
- prevent recurrence
- guardrail
- safety margin
- threshold
- contingency plan
- resilience
- redundancy
- risk register
- scenario planning
- monitoring and evaluation
- early warning indicator
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
# RETROGRADE PAST (M-) markers → nostalgia/grievance/purity/scapegoat
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
HGW_RETROGRADE_MMINUS:
weight: 1.4
terms:
- restore
- return to
- take back
- make it like before
- golden age
- betrayed
- stolen
- humiliation
- enemies within
- traitors
- purge
- cleanse
- vermin
- infestation
- illegitimate
- corrupt elite
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
# DISAMBIGUATION NOTES (v0.2)
# -------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTES:
- Words like "historic" and "revolutionary" can appear in journalism; apply quote/attribution discount rules.
- "restore/return" can be neutral in technical contexts; if near "protocol/version/backup" discount by 70%.

2) Combined TVIS CSV Output Schema v0.2 (Single Stable Format)

Purpose: One schema that includes TVIS + v0.2 credibility + derivatives + HGW indices + NIT hook.

[CivOS.Schema.TVIS.CSV.v0.2]
REQUIRED COLUMNS (stable order):
# Window metadata
idx
t
source_mix
N
excerpt
# Core normalized intensities (per 1000 tokens)
f1
f2
f3
f_time
p
m_plus
m_minus
vmark
# Core ratios (LOCKED)
FDR
RDR
BSI
# Roles
V_r
O_r
R_r
feasibility_strength # = f3 / max(ε, f1+f2+f3)
# Role mismatch
RoleMismatch
FantasySpiral
GrindTrap
CassandraTrap
Revisionist
# Credibility / v0.2 add-ons
F3_share
VMark_norm
F3_share_norm
HTP
CB
# TVIS scoring + state
TVIS_score_v0_2
State
Tag
# Derivatives (HD)
FDR_s
RDR_s
BSI_s
dFDR_dt
dRDR_dt
dBSI_dt
DerivTrigger
# NIT hook
NIT_proxy
NIT_reason
# Fence
Fence
# HGW indices (time-triad)
HI # Hope Index
GI # Grind Index
WI # Wisdom Index
BDC # Backward Drift Condition (0/1)
HopeCollapseWarning (0/1)

3) HGW Computation Block (Almost-code)

Paste this into your implementation after you compute v0.2 fields.

[HGW.Compute.v0.2]
# Inputs available per window:
# F3_share_norm, VMark_norm, HTP, BSI, m_plus, m_minus, RDR, dRDR_dt, dHI_dt(optional)
HI = 100 * clamp( 0.55*F3_share_norm + 0.45*VMark_norm - 0.60*HTP , 0, 1 )
GI = 100 * clamp( norm_BSI(BSI), 0, 1 )
WI = 100 * clamp( m_plus / (m_plus + m_minus + 0.25), 0, 1 )
BDC = 1 if (HI < GI) AND (RDR > 1.0 OR dRDR_dt > +0.12) else 0
# HopeCollapseWarning needs HI time series:
dHI_dt = HI[i] - HI[i-1]
HopeCollapseWarning = 1 if (dHI_dt < -8 for 2 windows) AND (GI > 60) AND (dRDR_dt > +0.12) else 0

Start Here:

Start here if you want the full sequence:

Vocabulary OS Series Index:
https://edukatesg.com/vocabulary-os-series-index/

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