ModuleID: OLYMPICMEDALIST_OS
Version: v1.0
AppliesTo: Individual life trajectory (Age 0–30)
PrimaryOutput: P3 performance at Z6 stage (Olympics/Worlds)
CoreLaw: Medal = sustained regeneration throughput under rising load, without irreversible threshold crossings.
Axes: Age(t), Z(zoom), P(phase reliability), Role(AVOO), Load(L), Buffer(B), TTC
Dependencies: FenceOS, MindOS, EmotionOS, SymChoice, EducationOS (as regeneration engine)

Age t ∈ [0,30]
Z ∈ {Z0..Z6}
P ∈ {P0..P3}          // phase reliability under load
L(t)                  // total load (training + life + stress)
B(t)                  // buffers (sleep, health, relationships, time, money, identity stability)
G(t)                  // growth/regeneration rate (skill + body + mind)
D(t)                  // damage/decay rate (injury, burnout, chronic stress, demotivation)
R(t) = D(t)/G(t)      // rate-dominance ratio
TTC(t)                // time-to-collapse under current load
ρ_choice(t)           // symmetry-break injection ratio (choices introduced / capacity)

GoalCondition:
Z6 exposure achieved AND
P3 maintained during peak window AND
R(t) < 1 for full pipeline AND
No irreversible thresholds crossed (FenceOS compliance)

Z0: Body micro (tendons, bones, joints, motor control, energy systems)
Z1: Athlete system (habits, identity, self-regulation, skill memory)
Z2: Family + coach micro-team + daily logistics
Z3: Facility + club + local peer ecosystem
Z4: National federation pipeline + selection gates + funding
Z5: Country support stack (medical, education flexibility, legal/visa)
Z6: Global competition arena (ISU/Olympics; scoring meta; travel; media)

P3: Stable performance under high variance + high stakes
P2: Performs well but collapses under variance (stress-sensitive)
P1: Inconsistent; frequent failures; confidence oscillation
P0: Breakdown: injury, burnout, quitting, severe instability

Inputs:
- free play, movement variety, balance, rhythm
- safe attachment + low fear environment
Outputs:
- motor coordination base
- positive emotion bind to movement (JoyBind)
Sensors:
- S0.MotorVarietyScore
- S0.SleepStability
- S0.AttachmentStability
Fence:
- prohibit early specialization overload
- protect joints; avoid repetitive strain

FM0: Overtraining → micro-injury → fear bind deletion → P1/P0 drift
FM1: Identity pressure too early → shame field → avoidance

LoadPolicy:
L = moderate, fun-dominant, variety retained
ChoicePolicy:
ρ_choice low (simple routines; stable repetition)
Outputs:
- basic technique lattice (skills as nodes)
- coach trust bind
- early competition tolerance (Z2→Z3 exposure)
Sensors:
- SkillNodeCount
- RecoveryDaysPerWeek
- FunSignal (intrinsic motivation proxy)
Fence:
- MaxTrainingHoursCap(age)
- MinPlayHoursFloor(age)

Key Transition:
Z0 growth volatility ↑
Risk: injury and burnout thresholds ↓
Outputs:
- technical base strong enough for national track entry
- routine discipline (Operator mode)
AVOO emphasis:
- Operator dominant
- Architect light (basic routine design)
Sensors:
- PainSignalIndex
- MoodVariance
- SchoolLoadCoupling
Fence:
- If PainSignalIndex > Θ1 → truncation protocol
- If MoodVariance > Θ2 → buffer restore protocol

Environment:
Z0 changes (height/weight/levers) → technique instability
Emotion amplitude ↑ (shame, comparison, identity shocks)
Competition pressure ↑ (selection gates)
Core Rule:
B(t) must increase faster than L(t)
Outputs:
- technique re-anchored to new body
- emotional regulation (MindOS upgrade)
- consistent training continuity (no long breaks)
MindOS/EmotionOS pack:
- ShameField management
- AttachmentBuffer (support team)
- GriefShock handling (injury/selection failures)
Sensors:
- TTC_injury
- TTC_burnout
- IdentityStabilityScore
- CoachAthleteTrustIndex
- R(t)=D/G weekly trend
Fence:
- If TTC_injury < 8 weeks → reduce L immediately (Truncation)
- If R(t) > 1 for 3 consecutive weeks → mandatory Stitching block

Key change:
Z6 exposure begins (international comps)
Scoring meta becomes part of system
AVOO:
Architect rises (layout strategy; jump content planning)
Oracle rises (competition reading; judging meta; pacing)
Operator must stay stable
SymChoice Law:
- Changes must be scheduled
- Emergency changes only under FenceOS
Sensors:
- P3Rate (percent skates with clean execution under stress)
- ρ_choice (change rate / capacity)
- TravelLoadIndex
- MediaStressIndex
Fence:
- If ρ_choice > ρ* → freeze program; revert to stable set
- If MediaStressIndex > Θ → comms sandboxing protocol

The Peak Corridor:
- volume is high but variance controlled
- recovery becomes a first-class system
Outputs:
- stable technical content
- competition resilience
- identity not fully dependent on outcome
Sensors:
- PeakReadinessIndex
- InjuryRiskForecast
- ConfidenceStability
- SleepDebtAccumulation
Fence:
- enforce off-season regeneration blocks
- cap competition frequency
- mandatory “loss absorption” drills (EmotionOS)

Strategy:
- technique efficiency ↑
- recovery and medical stack ↑
- schedule intelligence (ChronoHelmAI style)
Sensors:
- ChronicInjuryIndex
- MotivationSignal
- JoyBindStrength
Fence:
- if JoyBind collapses → rebuild intrinsic loop or retire gracefully (avoid P0 crash)

SENSORS:
1) R(t)=D/G weekly
2) TTC_injury, TTC_burnout
3) B(t) buffer score (sleep, time, relationships, money)
4) ρ_choice (change injection rate)
5) IdentityStabilityScore (non-outcome self)
6) CoachTrustIndex
7) P3Rate in simulation (stress tests)
8) TravelLoadIndex
9) ShameFieldLevel / ComparisonExposure
10) FunSignal / JoyBindStrength

IF TTC_injury < 8w OR PainSignalIndex > Θ1 → ReduceLoad(ΔL-)
IF R(t) > 1 for 3w → MandatoryRecoveryBlock(7–14d)
IF ρ_choice > ρ* → FreezeProgram(2–6w)
IF ShameFieldLevel > Θ → ReduceComparisonExposure + RepairIdentity

StitchingLoop:
1) restore sleep + food + physio
2) rebuild micro-confidence via clean reps
3) gradual load ramp (10–15%/week max)
4) re-enter competition only after P3 simulation pass

Talent = unusually high G(t) at Z0–Z1
BUT medal requires:
- sustained B(t)
- controlled L(t)
- low R(t)
- stable AVOO stack
- low phase shear under Z6 volatility

For t in PeakWindow:
Maintain:
R(t)=D/G < 1
P(t)=P3
ρ_choice(t) < ρ*
B(t) > B_min(L, variance)
TTC(t) >> competition horizon

0–5: movement + joy bind + attachment stability
6–9: skill ignition + variety + basic competition tolerance
10–12: specialization ramp + pain/mood fencing
13–15: puberty volatility survival + re-anchor technique + identity repair
16–18: elite track + international exposure + P2→P3 conversion
19–22: peak corridor build + Z6 stress simulation + medal attempt
23–30: sustain or second peak via efficiency + schedule intelligence

ModuleID: OLYMPICMEDALIST_OS
Version: v1.0
Scope: Individual life trajectory (Age 0–30) → Olympic/World medal-class performance
PrimaryOutput: PeakWindow_P3@Z6 (P3 reliability under Z6 global load)
SecondaryOutputs: Long-horizon health, identity stability, post-peak regeneration capacity
CoreLaw: Medal = sustained regeneration throughput under rising load, without irreversible threshold crossings.
CoreMechanism: Keep R(t)=D/G < 1 while increasing L(t) and variance, preserving buffers B(t), and controlling symmetry-break injection ρ_choice(t).
Dependencies: CivOS Core, FenceOS, MindOS, EmotionOS, SymChoiceOS, AVOO Role Lattice, EducationOS (time-axis regeneration)
InstallMode: Additive plug-in (no mutation of CivOS core definitions)

Age t ∈ [0,30]
Z ∈ {Z0..Z6}      // zoom
P ∈ {P0..P3}      // phase reliability under load
Role ∈ {Architect, Visionary, Oracle, Operator}  // AVOO

L(t): Total load (training + school/work + travel + media + family stress)
V(t): Volatility/variance (uncertainty, stakes, schedule changes, injury risk, judging noise)
B(t): Buffers (sleep, time slack, money, relationships, recovery capacity, identity stability)
G(t): Regeneration/Growth rate (skill acquisition + physical adaptation + mental resilience)
D(t): Damage/Decay rate (injury accumulation + burnout + demotivation + chronic stress)
R(t) = D(t)/G(t): Rate-dominance ratio
TTC(t): Time-to-collapse under current L,V,B
ρ_choice(t): Symmetry-break injection ratio (new choices/changes ÷ capacity)
P3Rate(t): fraction of simulations/performances that remain stable under variance

Medal-Class Outcome requires:
(1) Z6 Entry achieved (international elite gate passed)
(2) PeakWindow exists with P(t)=P3 while V(t) high and stakes high
(3) R(t) < 1 across the full pipeline (esp. last 12–24 months)
(4) FenceOS prevents irreversible threshold crossings (injury/burnout/identity fracture)
(5) AVOO alignment (planning → sensing → executing) without phase shear

Z0: Body micro (tendons, bones, joints, motor control timing, energy systems)
Z1: Athlete system (habits, identity, attention, self-regulation, skill memory)
Z2: Micro-team (family, coach, physio, nutrition, scheduling, logistics)
Z3: Local ecosystem (club, rink/gym/pool, peers, school accommodation)
Z4: National pipeline (federation selection gates, funding, medical stack, camps)
Z5: Country stack (education policies, visa/travel support, sponsorship/legal)
Z6: Global arena (Olympics/Worlds; judging meta; travel; media; geopolitical shocks)

Z2 → Z1: daily routine stability
Z2 → Z0: recovery enforcement
Z3 → Z2: facility access + peer calibration
Z4 → Z3: funding + selection gates
Z6 → Z4: qualification rules + scoring meta pressure
Z6 → Z1: media pressure + identity noise

P3: repeatable output under high variance; stable execution in stress tests; low error cascades
P2: strong output in normal conditions; collapses under variance spikes or stakes
P1: inconsistent; performance oscillates; frequent confidence resets
P0: breakdown; long stop; injury/burnout/quitting; loss of identity stability

P2 → P1: V(t) spike + low B(t) + high ρ_choice
P1 → P0: R(t)>1 persists + TTC drops below horizon + failed truncation response
P2 → P3: repeated stress simulations pass + buffers thickened + routines stabilized

Architect: generates corridors (program design, training design, contingency plans)
Visionary: long-horizon trajectory (4–8 years), identity narrative, purpose stability
Oracle: sensing + prediction (competition meta, injury risk, judging trends, timing)
Operator: execution (daily reps; performance under timed/staked conditions)

If Operator is forced to absorb Architect-level choice volume → ρ_choice↑ → phase shear → P drop.
Therefore:
Architect/Oracle absorb complexity; Operator receives stable executable corridor.

ρ_choice(t) = ChoiceInjectionRate / Capacity
Capacity ≈ (sleep + habit stability + cognitive bandwidth + coaching coherence)

If ρ_choice(t) > ρ* for sustained period:
→ coordination shear increases
→ D(t) rises (errors, injuries, stress)
→ P degrades (P3→P2→P1)

- Make changes only inside scheduled change windows.
- Freeze corridor near peak window.
- Emergency changes require FenceOS justification (TTC or injury risk).

S1: R_week = D/G (weekly)
S2: TTC_injury (weeks)
S3: TTC_burnout (weeks)
S4: BufferScore B (0–100): sleep, time slack, recovery, relationships, money, identity
S5: ρ_choice (0–∞)
S6: P3Rate_sim (0–1): pass rate in stress simulation
S7: IdentityStability (0–100): self not dependent on outcome
S8: CoachTrustIndex (0–100)
S9: LoadSplit: training vs school/work vs travel vs media vs family
S10: VolatilityIndex V (0–100): schedule noise + stakes + uncertainty

{R_week, TTC_injury, TTC_burnout, BufferScore, ρ_choice, P3Rate_sim}

Θ = T_fence / T_repair     // must be < 1 (fence faster than repair horizon)
Λ = T_enforce / T_fence    // enforcement must be fast enough to matter

TR1: TTC_injury < 8 weeks  → ReduceLoadImmediately
TR2: TTC_burnout < 8 weeks → MandatoryRecoveryBlock
TR3: R_week > 1 for 3 weeks → StitchingProtocol
TR4: ρ_choice > ρ* for 2 weeks → CorridorFreeze (no new elements)
TR5: BufferScore < B_min for 2 weeks → BufferRebuild

SP0: Sleep reset + nutrition + physio (7–14 days)
SP1: Confidence rebuild via clean reps (low variance drills)
SP2: Gradual load ramp (≤10–15%/week)
SP3: Re-entry requires P3Rate_sim ≥ 0.7 for 2 consecutive tests

Outputs:
- Motor variety base
- JoyBind: positive emotion bind to movement and learning
- Attachment stability (safe exploration)

Load: low–moderate, play-dominant
No early specialization overload

MotorVarietyScore, SleepStability, AttachmentStability

FM-S0-1: Repetition overload → micro-injury → fear bind deletion → avoidance
FM-S0-2: Identity pressure too early → shame field → brittle motivation

Outputs:
- Basic technique nodes (SkillNodeCount grows)
- Coach trust bind
- Simple competition tolerance (low stakes)

Maintain variety
Keep fun dominant (FunSignal must remain high)

SkillNodeCount, RecoveryDays/week, FunSignal, MoodVariance

MaxHoursCap(age), MinPlayFloor(age)

Outputs:
- Technical base strong enough for elite track entry
- Operator discipline (repeatable reps)

Growth volatility at Z0 begins to rise.

PainSignalIndex, MoodVariance, R_week, BufferScore

If PainSignalIndex > Θ1 → truncate (reduce repetitive strain)
If MoodVariance > Θ2 → buffer rebuild + comparison exposure reduction

Outputs:
- Technique re-anchored to new body geometry
- MindOS upgrade: emotional regulation + identity stability
- Continuity: avoid long breaks; prevent P0 events

B(t) must increase faster than L(t), or TTC collapses.

- ShameField management (comparison, social pressure)
- GriefShock protocol (injury, selection failure)
- AttachmentBuffer strengthening (trusted adults, stable team)

TTC_injury, TTC_burnout, IdentityStability, CoachTrustIndex, R_week

If TTC_injury < 8w → Truncation
If R_week > 1 for 3w → Stitching
If IdentityStability < I_min → IdentityRepairBlock

FM-S3-1: puberty change → technique collapse → shame → quitting spiral
FM-S3-2: overtraining to “catch up” → injury → bind deletion → P0
FM-S3-3: social comparison overdose → identity fracture → motivation collapse

Outputs:
- P2 → P3 conversion begins (stress-stable output)
- Architect/Oracle involvement increases (strategy + sensing)

Scoring meta / competition meta becomes part of the system (Oracle domain).

P3Rate_sim, ρ_choice, TravelLoadIndex, MediaStressIndex, R_week

If ρ_choice > ρ* → freeze program; revert to stable corridor
If MediaStressIndex > Θ → comms sandbox protocol + identity protection

Outputs:
- Stable technical content
- Competition resilience
- Identity not fully outcome-dependent

Variance controlled; recovery is first-class; changes are scheduled; buffers thick.

PeakReadinessIndex, InjuryRiskForecast, SleepDebt, P3Rate_sim, BufferScore

Mandatory off-season regeneration blocks
Competition frequency cap
Loss-absorption drills (EmotionOS) to prevent collapse after setbacks

Outputs:
- longevity via efficiency
- schedule intelligence
- stable post-peak identity and regeneration capacity

ChronicInjuryIndex, MotivationSignal, JoyBindStrength, BufferScore

If JoyBind collapses → rebuild intrinsic loop OR retire gracefully (avoid P0 crash)

FA1: Early specialization → repetitive injury → fear bind deletion → avoidance
FA2: Puberty geometry shift → skill collapse → shame → quitting
FA3: Overtraining to catch up → injury → long break → P0
FA4: ρ_choice overload (too many changes) → coordination shear → errors cascade
FA5: Buffer erosion (sleep/time/money) → TTC drops → burnout
FA6: Identity outcome-lock → loss event → emotional crash → training discontinuity
FA7: Coach trust break → daily instability → inconsistent reps → P1 drift
FA8: Travel/jet lag load unpriced → immune collapse/injury → peak ruined
FA9: Media pressure injection → comparison overdose → shame field → P drop
FA10: Chronic pain normalization → silent D(t) rise → sudden collapse
FA11: No stitching protocol after setback → spiral through R>1
FA12: Peak window mis-timed (too early/late) → missed opportunity → motivation fracture

For t in PeakWindow (12–24 months):
Maintain:
R_week < 1
BufferScore ≥ B_min(L,V)
ρ_choice ≤ ρ*
P3Rate_sim ≥ 0.7
TTC_injury >> competition horizon
TTC_burnout >> competition horizon
AVOO aligned (Operator shielded from complexity)
FenceOS active (fast truncation, reliable stitching)

1) Read sensors: R_week, TTC_injury, TTC_burnout, BufferScore, ρ_choice, P3Rate_sim
2) If any TR triggers → execute truncation immediately
3) If R_week trending up → reduce variance or load; increase recovery
4) If ρ_choice high → freeze corridor; restore repetition stability
5) Run 1 stress simulation weekly (scored, timed, distractions)
6) Log 1 identity stabilizer action (non-sport competence/relationships)

Require:
- BufferScore above threshold
- SleepDebt low
- PainSignal low
- P3Rate_sim pass
- No new changes in final 2–6 weeks (freeze window)

INSTANCE: AthleteID:____
Sport:____
StartAge:____
PeakTargetAge:____
PeakWindow: [____ to ____]
MajorGates:
- Gate Z3: club entry
- Gate Z4: national track entry
- Gate Z6: international elite entry
CurrentPhase: P__
CurrentBuffers: B=__
CurrentR_week: __
CurrentTTC_injury: __ weeks
Currentρ_choice: __
CurrentP3Rate_sim: __
ActiveFenceTriggers: {__}
ActiveProtocol: {Truncation/Stitching/Freeze/BufferRebuild}

ModuleID: FIGURESKATING_MEDALIST_OS
Version: v1.0
Domain: Figure Skating (Singles; adaptable to Pairs/Ice Dance via edges)
PrimaryOutput: PeakWindow_P3@Z6 (Olympics/Worlds medal-class)
SecondaryOutputs: injury avoidance, long-horizon identity stability, post-peak regeneration capacity
CoreLaw: Medal = R(t)=D/G < 1 sustained while raising L(t) and V(t), with strict thresholds on injury TTC and choice-injection (ρ_choice).
Dependencies: FenceOS, MindOS, EmotionOS, SymChoiceOS, AVOO Role Lattice, ChronoHelmAI scheduling logic (optional)

Edges: stroking, edges, turns, speed control, posture, knee action, alignment
Jumps: Axel family + toe/edge takeoffs + rotation mechanics + landing absorption
Spins: centering, speed, position changes
Steps/Transitions: complexity under speed
Program: layout + stamina + musicality + choreographic binds
Competition: judging meta, PCS/GOE dynamics, tech panel risk, under-rotation risk

InjuryRiskDrivers:
- overuse (tendons, stress fractures)
- acute landing errors
- growth spurts (puberty lever change)
- fatigue-induced form decay
- boot fit changes / blade changes
- travel/jet lag and immune load

L_train = on-ice minutes + off-ice strength + plyo + ballet/dance + conditioning
L_school/work = cognitive + schedule constraints
L_comp = comp frequency + travel + acclimation + media
V = judging noise + tech calls + ice variability + travel + expectation spikes + program changes

Z0: ankles/knees/hips spine; rotation impulse chain; tendon integrity; energy systems
Z1: technique memory; fear management; rhythm; attention under noise; identity
Z2: coach + choreographer + physio + parent logistics + nutrition + sleep enforcement
Z3: rink ice time economics; club culture; sparring peers; school flexibility
Z4: federation selection; assignments; camps; monitoring; funding; medical access
Z5: sponsorship; education policy accommodations; visas; legal/branding constraints
Z6: ISU rules; Olympic pressure; judging meta; travel + media + geopolitical noise

P3: clean execution persists under:
    - high stakes
    - tech calls pressure
    - fatigue
    - minor ice/travel disruptions
    - audience/media noise
P2: clean in training; errors spike in competition or after travel/pressure
P1: frequent pops/doubles/step-outs; confidence oscillation; fear binds active
P0: major injury, burnout, quitting, or long discontinuity → technique resets

Executes:
- daily reps
- run-throughs
- competition skates
Must receive:
- stable corridor (minimal last-minute changes)

Senses:
- jump consistency stats
- injury risk trajectory
- judging meta (UR calls, edge calls, PCS trends)
Decides:
- risk posture for layout

Designs:
- season plan + load ramps
- program layout (jump placement, fatigue management)
- contingency programs (Plan A/B/C)

Holds:
- long-horizon identity/purpose stability
- commitment narrative without outcome-lock

S-Tech1: JumpSuccessRate per element (training, run-through, comp)
S-Tech2: UR_RiskRate (under-rotation risk proxy: borderline landings)
S-Tech3: PopRate (pops/doubles)
S-Tech4: LandingQualityIndex (flow-out + knee/hip alignment)
S-Tech5: SpinLevelStability (centering + speed + feature consistency)
S-Tech6: StepSequenceQuality (stability under speed)
S-Tech7: ProgramRunThroughPassRate (clean-ish under fatigue)

S-Body1: PainSignalIndex (0–10; per joint)
S-Body2: ImpactLoadIndex (landings/week + plyo dose)
S-Body3: GrowthVolatilityFlag (puberty lever-change window)
S-Body4: SleepDebtHours (weekly)
S-Body5: TTC_injury (weeks) computed from pain trend + impact trend + fatigue
S-Body6: BootFitStability (blisters, fit changes, foot pain)

S-Mind1: FearBindLevel (approach hesitation; avoidance reps)
S-Mind2: ShameFieldLevel (comparison exposure + self-talk collapse)
S-Mind3: IdentityStabilityScore (self not outcome-locked)
S-Mind4: CompetitionNoiseTolerance (simulated distractions pass rate)

S-Sys1: BufferScore B (0–100)
S-Sys2: VolatilityIndex V (0–100)
S-Sys3: ρ_choice (program/layout change rate ÷ capacity)
S-Sys4: TravelLoadIndex
S-Sys5: MediaStressIndex
S-Sys6: R_week = D/G

TR-SK1: PainSignalIndex ≥ 6 in same joint for 7 days → ReduceImpact + MedicalCheck
TR-SK2: ImpactLoadIndex ↑ while SleepDebt ↑ → MandatoryImpactCut (7–14d)
TR-SK3: TTC_injury < 8 weeks → ImmediateLoadReduction + Stop new jumps
TR-SK4: FearBindLevel rising + JumpSuccessRate falling for 2 weeks → Reset progression (confidence rebuild)
TR-SK5: ρ_choice > ρ* for 2 weeks → CorridorFreeze (no new elements/changes)
TR-SK6: R_week > 1 for 3 weeks → StitchingProtocol

FW: last 2–6 weeks before major event:
- no new jump content
- no boot/blade changes unless emergency
- no layout changes unless Oracle flags TTC collapse

1) Remove impact (no full landings) 7–21 days depending on TTC
2) Maintain edges/spins/upper-body + low-impact conditioning
3) Re-introduce jumps via harness/off-ice rotation drills
4) Return-to-landing ladder:
   single → double → triple (or triple→quad ladder)
5) Re-entry requires:
   PainSignalIndex ≤ 2
   JumpSuccessRate ≥ baseline
   ProgramPassRate ≥ 0.7 in sim

1) Confidence rebuild reps: ultra-easy clean hits
2) Controlled variance reintroduction (noise + time pressure)
3) Single-element stress tests → partial run-through → full run-through
4) Require FearBindLevel drop + pass streak before escalating

1) Accept temporary technique instability as normal (prevent shame spiral)
2) Reduce rotation demand; focus on axis + takeoff mechanics
3) Increase off-ice strength + mobility for new lever geometry
4) Layout adapted to protect knees/ankles
5) Rebuild only after GrowthVolatilityFlag declines

A) Base Build (8–16 weeks): strength, edges, technique rebuild, low comps
B) Program Build (8–12 weeks): layout + choreography; repetition stability
C) Stress Build (6–10 weeks): simulations, noise training, travel acclimation
D) Peak Window (2–6 weeks): freeze corridor, maximize buffers, low variance
E) Recovery (2–6 weeks): repair joints + mind; identity widening; reset

- Increase L at most 10–15% per week
- Never increase impact load in same week as travel load spike
- Mandatory recovery week every 3–5 weeks (depends on age)
- Puberty window: prioritize B(t) and technique stability over difficulty

ExpectedScore = BaseValue + GOE - RiskPenalty(UR, falls, fatigue)
RiskPenalty rises sharply when:
- SleepDebt high
- TravelLoad high
- FearBind high
- TTC_injury low
- ρ_choice high

If PeakWindow approaching:
choose layout that maximizes:
ExpectedScore × P3Rate_sim
not raw BaseValue alone

F-SK1: Boot change → foot pain → altered takeoff → knee injury cascade
F-SK2: Growth spurt → axis instability → UR calls → shame spiral → fear bind
F-SK3: Too many program changes → ρ_choice overload → pops → confidence collapse
F-SK4: Fatigue week + high impact load → stress fracture
F-SK5: Travel + sleep debt → immune crash → missed training → peak ruined
F-SK6: Coach-athlete trust break → daily instability → inconsistent reps
F-SK7: Media spike → comparison overdose → identity outcome-lock → meltdown after loss
F-SK8: Early quad push → tendon overload → chronic pain normalization
F-SK9: Over-competition → no base rebuild → gradual D(t) rise → sudden collapse
F-SK10: “Catch-up panic” after setback → load spike → injury
F-SK11: PCS neglect → technical-only strategy stalls at Z6 (PCS gap)
F-SK12: Step sequence undertrained → fatigue + speed loss → GOE bleed
F-SK13: Poor warmup protocol → first jump miss → cascade
F-SK14: No loss-absorption drill → one bad comp → motivation fracture
F-SK15: Peak mis-timed (too early) → burnout before championships

For t in PeakWindow:
Maintain:
PainSignalIndex ≤ 2–3
SleepDebt low (near 0)
ρ_choice ≤ ρ*
P3Rate_sim ≥ 0.7–0.85 (depending on event difficulty)
JumpSuccessRate stable (no downtrend)
ProgramRunThroughPassRate stable
TTC_injury >> event horizon
IdentityStability above threshold

SIM1: Time pressure (short warmup; one-shot run-through)
SIM2: Noise injection (crowd audio; camera; interruptions)
SIM3: Judging meta sim (call-outs: “UR risk”, “edge call”, “GOE strict”)
SIM4: Travel sim (early morning + fatigue run)
SIM5: Loss absorption sim (bad short → recover free)

P3Rate_sim = (#passes) / (#sims)
Require ≥0.7 baseline; ≥0.85 for peak readiness

S0–S1: early skating exposure; strong JoyBind
S2: specialization ramp; careful impact management
S3: puberty stitch success; identity stable
S4: junior intl success; P2→P3 begins
S5: peak corridor; medal attempt

S0–S2: general athletic base; delayed specialization
S3–S4: rapid skill climb with strong buffers
S5: peak corridor later; less puberty risk, more endurance and identity stability

- Pain check (0–10) per joint
- Sleep and mood quick log
- One “clean reps” block (confidence maintenance)
- No new changes unless scheduled window

1) Compute R_week
2) Update TTC_injury + TTC_burnout
3) Check ρ_choice trend
4) Run 1–2 simulations
5) If any TR trigger → truncate immediately
6) Plan next week load ramp (≤10–15%)

Age t: 0 ──────────────── 10 ──────────────── 15 ──────────────── 20 ──────────────── 30
         Foundation         Specialize           Puberty Valley        Peak Corridor         Sustain/Exit
Z-axis: Z0 Body → Z1 Athlete → Z2 Team → Z3 Rink/Club → Z4 Federation → Z5 Country → Z6 Olympics
P-axis: P0 breakdown ↔ P1 unstable ↔ P2 good-but-fragile ↔ P3 stress-stable elite
Core Loop:
Sensors → FenceOS (Truncate/Stitch) → Buffer Build → Simulation → P3 Conversion → Peak Freeze → Z6 Output

ModuleID: FIGURESKATING_MEDALIST_OS
Version: v1.0
Domain: Figure Skating Singles (adaptable)
PrimaryOutput: PeakWindow_P3@Z6 (Worlds/Olympics medal-class)
SecondaryOutputs: injury avoidance, identity stability, post-peak regeneration
CoreLaw: Medal = sustained regeneration throughput under rising load and variance, without irreversible threshold crossings.
Dependencies: CivOS Core, FenceOS, MindOS, EmotionOS, SymChoiceOS, AVOO Role Lattice
Optional: ChronoHelmAI calendar scheduling (season block planner)
InstallMode: additive plug-in; do not mutate CivOS core

Age t ∈ [0,30]
Z ∈ {Z0..Z6}           // zoom
P ∈ {P0..P3}           // phase reliability
L(t)                   // total load (training + life + travel + media)
V(t)                   // volatility (stakes + judging + travel + uncertainty)
B(t)                   // buffers (sleep, time slack, money, relationships, recovery, identity)
G(t)                   // regeneration/growth (skill + body adaptation + mind resilience)
D(t)                   // damage/decay (injury accumulation + burnout + demotivation + chronic stress)
R(t)=D/G               // rate-dominance ratio
TTC(t)                 // time-to-collapse under current L,V,B
ρ_choice(t)            // symmetry-break injection ratio (changes ÷ capacity)
P3Rate_sim(t)          // simulation pass rate under stress

Goal:
Z6 entry + PeakWindow exists where:
P(t)=P3, R(t)<1, B(t)≥B_min(L,V), ρ_choice(t)≤ρ*, TTC >> event horizon,
and FenceOS blocks irreversible crossings.

Z0: joints/tendons, rotation chain, landing absorption, energy systems
Z1: technique memory, attention, fear control, identity stability
Z2: coach/choreo/physio/parent logistics, sleep enforcement
Z3: rink access + club + peer calibration + school flexibility
Z4: federation gates, assignments, funding, camps, medical access
Z5: sponsorship/legal/education accommodations/visa support
Z6: ISU rules + Olympic media + judging meta + travel shocks

Z2→Z0 (recovery enforced), Z2→Z1 (routine stability),
Z3→Z2 (ice time access), Z4→Z3 (funding/gates),
Z6→Z4 (qualification rules), Z6→Z1 (media pressure)

P3: clean outputs persist under high variance (stakes, travel, judging noise)
P2: good in normal; fragile in high variance
P1: inconsistent; error cascades; fear binds frequent
P0: breakdown (injury/burnout/quitting/long discontinuity)

Architect: season plan + load ramps + layout design + contingencies
Visionary: long-horizon identity/purpose; non-outcome self
Oracle: sensing/prediction (UR risk, judging trends, injury TTC, timing)
Operator: execution (reps, run-throughs, comp skates)
Alignment Rule:
Operator must be shielded from Architect-level complexity.
Otherwise ρ_choice↑ → phase shear → P drop.

ρ_choice = ChangeInjectionRate / Capacity
Capacity ≈ sleep + habit stability + cognitive bandwidth + coaching coherence
If ρ_choice > ρ* sustained:
→ coordination shear ↑
→ D(t) rises (errors/injury/stress)
→ P degrades (P3→P2→P1)
Policy:
Changes only in scheduled windows; freeze near peak.

S-Tech1 JumpSuccessRate(element, context)
S-Tech2 UR_RiskRate (borderline landings proxy)
S-Tech3 PopRate (pops/doubles)
S-Tech4 LandingQualityIndex (alignment + flow-out)
S-Tech5 SpinLevelStability
S-Tech6 StepSequenceStability (speed + balance under fatigue)
S-Tech7 ProgramRunThroughPassRate (clean-ish under fatigue)

S-Body1 PainSignalIndex per joint (0–10)
S-Body2 ImpactLoadIndex (landings/week + plyo dose)
S-Body3 GrowthVolatilityFlag (puberty lever-change window)
S-Body4 SleepDebtHours/week
S-Body5 TTC_injury (weeks)
S-Body6 BootFitStability

S-Mind1 FearBindLevel (hesitation/avoidance)
S-Mind2 ShameFieldLevel (comparison overdose)
S-Mind3 IdentityStabilityScore (self not outcome-locked)
S-Mind4 NoiseTolerance (distraction sim pass rate)

S-Sys1 BufferScore B (0–100)
S-Sys2 VolatilityIndex V (0–100)
S-Sys3 ρ_choice
S-Sys4 TravelLoadIndex
S-Sys5 MediaStressIndex
S-Sys6 R_week = D/G
S-Sys7 P3Rate_sim

{R_week, TTC_injury, TTC_burnout, BufferScore, ρ_choice, P3Rate_sim, PainSignalIndex}

TR1 PainSignalIndex ≥6 (7 days same joint) → ReduceImpact + MedicalCheck
TR2 SleepDebt↑ + ImpactLoad↑ same week → MandatoryImpactCut (7–14d)
TR3 TTC_injury < 8 weeks → ImmediateLoadReduction + no new jump content
TR4 FearBind↑ + JumpSuccessRate↓ for 2 weeks → Regression ladder (confidence rebuild)
TR5 ρ_choice > ρ* for 2 weeks → CorridorFreeze (no new changes)
TR6 R_week > 1 for 3 weeks → StitchingProtocol
TR7 IdentityStability < I_min for 2 weeks → IdentityRepairBlock

SP0 Buffer reset: sleep + nutrition + physio (7–14d)
SP1 Confidence rebuild: clean reps block (low variance)
SP2 Ramp: ≤10–15%/week load increase
SP3 Re-entry: P3Rate_sim ≥ 0.7 for 2 consecutive tests
SP4 Peak gate: freeze window enforced (2–6 weeks pre-major)

A Base Build (8–16w): strength + edges + rebuild technique; low comp
B Program Build (8–12w): layout/choreo; repetition stability
C Stress Build (6–10w): simulations, noise training, travel acclimation
D Peak Window (2–6w): freeze corridor; maximize buffers; low variance
E Recovery (2–6w): repair joints + mind; identity widening; reset

- Load ramp ≤10–15%/week
- Never add impact load in same week as travel spike
- Mandatory deload week every 3–5 weeks (age-dependent)
- Puberty flag ON → prioritize buffers + technique stability, not max difficulty

Z0 lever-change (GrowthVolatility ON)
→ jump axis instability
→ UR calls + falls
→ ShameField↑
→ FearBind↑
→ practice avoidance + inconsistent reps
→ P2→P1
→ “catch-up panic” load spike
→ injury
→ P0 discontinuity

Layout changes + boot change + music change (ρ_choice↑)
→ Operator complexity overload
→ coordination shear
→ PopRate↑
→ confidence drop + D(t)↑
→ P3→P2→P1
→ peak window missed

School exams + travel + media (L↑, V↑)
→ SleepDebt↑
→ BufferScore↓
→ TTC_injury↓
→ minor pain ignored
→ chronic injury cascade
→ R(t)>1
→ P0 event

INSTANCE: AthleteID: SK-____
Age: __
CurrentStage: S__
CurrentZExposure: Z__
CurrentPhase: P__
GoalEvent: (Nationals/Worlds/Olympics)
PeakWindow: [date range]

Every week:
- compute R_week
- update TTC_injury + TTC_burnout
- compute BufferScore
- compute ρ_choice
- run 1–2 stress simulations → P3Rate_sim
- apply Fence triggers immediately

2–6 weeks pre-major:
- no new elements
- no boot/blade changes unless emergency
- no layout changes unless TTC crisis
- maximize buffers (sleep + time slack)

SIM ladder:
time pressure → noise → judging meta → travel fatigue → loss absorption
Require P3Rate_sim ≥ threshold before raising difficulty or stakes.

- steady rink access (Z3 stable)
- strong coach relationship (Z2 stable)
- puberty volatility age 13–15 (GrowthVolatility ON)
- target: international medal attempt age 20–22

Age 6: B=75, R_week=0.6, Pain=0–1, ρ_choice low, P= P2 (low stakes)
Age 7: JumpSuccessRate basics ↑, FunSignal high, B stable
Age 8: first low-stakes comps; NoiseTolerance begins
Age 9: ProgramPassRate 0.4→0.55 (kids are variable; OK)

Age 10: L↑ (more ice); ImpactLoadIndex monitored; Pain stays ≤2
Age 11: first doubles stabilized; R_week 0.7; B 70–80
Age 12: ρ_choice kept low; no major changes; P stabilizes P2
Fence events: none (good corridor)

Age 13: GrowthVolatility ON; JumpSuccessRate dips; UR_RiskRate ↑
        ShameField risk ↑ → install IdentityRepair + ComparisonReduction
        TR triggers avoided by truncating impact weeks
Age 14: PainSignal knee hits 6 for 7 days → TR1 triggered
        ImpactCut 14 days; SP-SK0 injury stitch; P stays P2 not P0
Age 15: GrowthVolatility declines; technique re-anchors
        P3Rate_sim begins: 0.35→0.55

Age 16: Layout “Plan A/B” created (Architect); Oracle monitors UR calls
        ρ_choice controlled via change windows
        P3Rate_sim 0.55→0.7
Age 17: TravelLoadIndex ↑ (juniors intl); enforce sleep + deload after travel
        One setback comp → LossAbsorption sim prevents spiral
        P moves toward P3 in sims
Age 18: P3Rate_sim 0.75; FreezeWindow discipline established
        Jump content becomes repeatable rather than maximal

Age 19: PeakReadinessIndex rising; competition schedule capped
        R_week stays ~0.7–0.85 (never >1 for sustained)
        IdentityStability stays >70 (self not outcome-locked)
Age 20: PeakWindow attempt #1
        FreezeWindow 4 weeks; P3Rate_sim 0.85
        Result: medal-class plausible
Age 21: PeakWindow attempt #2
        Minor pain → immediate truncation; stitched back in 2 weeks
        P3 maintained; season ends strongest
Age 22: Sustain or second peak planning begins (S6 entry)

- Add FIGURESKATING_MEDALIST_OS v1.0 as an Extension module
- Link to shared Sensor Pack definitions:
  {R_week, TTC, BufferScore, ρ_choice, P3Rate_sim}
- Link to FenceOS Truncation + Stitching protocols
- Link to MindOS/EmotionOS: ShameField, FearBind, LossAbsorption
- Link to AVOO alignment rule (Operator shield)

ModuleID: CHAI_SCHEDULER_SKATING
Version: v1.0
Purpose: Convert FIGURESKATING_MEDALIST_OS sensors into an executable season plan.
Output: A dated block schedule + weekly load targets + fence actions.
Inputs: AthleteState + EventCalendar + SensorHistory
Dependencies: FenceOS, SymChoiceOS, MindOS/EmotionOS, AVOO

AthleteID: SK-____
Age: __
Stage: S__                 // S0..S6
CurrentPhase: P__           // P0..P3
ZExposure: Z__              // Z0..Z6
BaselineTrainingHours: __
BaselineImpactLoadIndex: __
BaselineJumpSet: {elements...}
BaselineProgram: {SP, FP}

MajorEvent:
  Name: __
  Date: YYYY-MM-DD
  Importance: {A,B,C}       // A=Olympics/Worlds/Nationals
MinorEvents: [ {Name, Date, Importance}, ... ]
Travel:
  TypicalTimeZoneShiftHours: __
  TravelDaysPerTrip: __
FreezeWindowWeeks: __       // default 4 (range 2–6)

R_week: [..]
TTC_injury: [..]            // weeks
TTC_burnout: [..]           // weeks
BufferScore: [..]           // 0–100
SleepDebtHours: [..]
PainSignalIndex: {ankle:.., knee:.., hip:.., back:..}
ImpactLoadIndex: [..]
ρ_choice: [..]
P3Rate_sim: [..]
JumpSuccessRate: {Axel:.., 3Lz:.., 3F:.., 4T:.. etc}
UR_RiskRate: [..]
FearBindLevel: [..]
ShameFieldLevel: [..]
TravelLoadIndex: [..]
MediaStressIndex: [..]
GrowthVolatilityFlag: {ON/OFF}

RiskInjury = f(PainTrend, ImpactTrend, SleepDebt, TTC_injury)
RiskBurnout = f(BufferScore, TTC_burnout, R_week trend)
RiskShear = f(ρ_choice, CoachTrustIndex if available, schedule noise)
PeakReadiness = f(P3Rate_sim, JumpSuccessRate stability, SleepDebt low, Pain low, Buffer high)
VarianceBudget = g(BufferScore, SleepDebt, Stage, Travel)

IF any joint PainSignalIndex ≥ 6 for 7 days:
  ACTION: TRUNCATE_IMPACT(7–21d) + MEDICAL_CHECK
  BLOCK: InjuryStitch (SP-SK0)
IF TTC_injury < 8 weeks:
  ACTION: IMMEDIATE_LOAD_REDUCTION + NO_NEW_CONTENT
  BLOCK: InjuryStitch
IF (SleepDebtHours rising) AND (ImpactLoadIndex rising) same week:
  ACTION: IMPACT_CUT(7–14d) + BUFFER_RESET
  BLOCK: BufferRebuild
IF ρ_choice > ρ* for 2 consecutive weeks:
  ACTION: CORRIDOR_FREEZE(2–6w)
  BLOCK: StabilityReps + NoChanges
IF R_week > 1 for 3 consecutive weeks:
  ACTION: STITCHING_PROTOCOL(7–14d)
  BLOCK: BufferReset + ConfidenceRebuild
IF FearBindLevel rising AND JumpSuccessRate falling for 2 weeks:
  ACTION: FEAR_BIND_STITCH (SP-SK1)
  BLOCK: RegressionLadder + CleanHits

WeeksToMajor = (MajorEventDate - Today) / 7

IF WeeksToMajor > 24:
  Plan = {BaseBuild → ProgramBuild → StressBuild → MiniPeak → Recovery} repeat
ELSE IF 12 < WeeksToMajor ≤ 24:
  Plan = {ProgramBuild → StressBuild → PeakWindow → Recovery}
ELSE IF 6 < WeeksToMajor ≤ 12:
  Plan = {StressBuild → PeakWindow → Recovery}
ELSE IF 2 ≤ WeeksToMajor ≤ 6:
  Plan = {PeakWindow} with strict Freeze
ELSE:
  Plan = {CompetitionWeek → Recovery}

IF GrowthVolatilityFlag = ON:
  - reduce impact emphasis
  - prioritize edges/spins/steps + strength/mobility
  - difficulty changes only if P3Rate_sim stable

L_total = L_onice + L_office + L_strength + L_plyo + L_school + L_travel + L_media
ImpactLoadIndex approximates landing + plyo impacts
VarianceLoad = travel + judging noise + schedule changes + last-minute changes

IF no fence triggers:
  Increase L_total by max 10–15% per week
  BUT:
    IF TravelLoadIndex high next week:
      HOLD impact load (no increase)
    IF BufferScore < B_min:
      REDUCE load (5–20%) until BufferScore recovers
    IF PainSignalIndex rising:
      HOLD or reduce impact load immediately

ChangeWindows allowed:
- BaseBuild: YES (small technique upgrades)
- ProgramBuild: YES (layout + choreo, controlled)
- StressBuild: LIMITED (no major content additions)
- PeakWindow: NO (freeze)

IF ρ_choice approaches ρ*:
  - delay any new element
  - revert to repetition stability week
  - move decision complexity to Architect/Oracle layer, not Operator

IF P3Rate_sim < 0.7:
  Add 2 sims/week
ELSE:
  Add 1 sim/week
IF NoiseTolerance weak:
  SIM: NoiseInjection
IF Travel upcoming:
  SIM: TravelFatigue
IF UR_RiskRate high:
  SIM: StrictTechPanel (callouts)
IF loss spiral risk:
  SIM: LossAbsorption (bad SP → recover FP)

PeakReadiness requires:
P3Rate_sim ≥ 0.8 (typical) AND
PainSignalIndex ≤ 2–3 AND
SleepDebt near 0 AND
ρ_choice low AND
JumpSuccessRate stable

SchedulePack:
  Dates: start YYYY-MM-DD, end YYYY-MM-DD
  BlockSequence: [ {BlockName, Weeks, Objective}, ... ]
  WeeklyPlan:
    Week1: {L_targets, ImpactTargets, Sims, ChangeWindow?, FenceActions}
    Week2: ...
  FreezeWindow:
    StartDate: __
    Rules: no new content; no equipment changes; buffer maximize
  RiskNotes:
    - top 3 risks (injury/burnout/shear)
    - active fences
  RoleAssignments:
    Architect tasks, Oracle tasks, Operator tasks, Visionary tasks

W1–W4: ProgramBuild (stabilize layout + repetition)
W5–W8: StressBuild (simulations + judging meta + travel prep)
W9–W12: PeakWindow (freeze + buffer maximize + low variance)

W1: Layout finalize (small changes allowed); 1 sim; load +10%
W2: Repetition stability; 2 sims (time pressure + noise); hold impact
W3: UR-risk reduction drills; 2 sims (strict panel); load +10%
W4: Program run-through pass target ≥0.6; 1 sim; deload week (-10%)
W5: StressBuild begins; 2 sims (noise + strict panel); travel protocol rehearsal
W6: Add loss-absorption sim; hold impact; buffer push
W7: Mock competition week (full protocols); measure P3Rate_sim
W8: Deload + stitch micro-leaks; freeze prep
W9: Freeze window starts; no changes; 1 sim/week; sleep priority
W10: Peak intensity but low variance; clean hits; pain checks daily
W11: Taper; confidence reps; logistics locked; media sandbox
W12: Competition week; post-event recovery block scheduled

Architect:
- finalize layout by W1 end
- create Plan B (lower-risk layout) by W2
Oracle:
- track UR_RiskRate weekly; adjust technique drills
- read judging meta; define risk posture
Operator:
- execute stable corridor; no self-initiated changes
Visionary:
- identity stabilizers weekly; avoid outcome-lock

You are ChronoHelmAI scheduler.
Given the AthleteState, EventCalendar, and SensorHistory,
1) run FenceOS gatekeeper first and override plan if triggers fire
2) select season blocks based on WeeksToMajor
3) output a 12-week SchedulePack with weekly load targets, sims, change windows, and freeze window
4) assign AVOO responsibilities
5) include top 3 failure risks + active fences
Return in Almost-Code format.

Run weekly scheduler continuously.
Each year:
- update Stage S0..S6
- adjust B_min thresholds and impact caps
- adjust simulation intensity and travel load handling
- enforce puberty lever-change rules when GrowthVolatilityFlag ON

DatasetID: SKA_LIFETABLE_FSINGLES
Version: v1.0
Instance: Athlete SK-A (hypothetical)
Start: Age 1
PeakTarget: Age 21 (modifiable)
PeakWindow: Age 20–22 (modifiable)
PrimaryGoal: P3@Z6 in PeakWindow

Age: integer (1–30)
Stage: S0..S6
ZTarget: highest stable exposure
PTarget: target phase reliability for that year
LoadRange: typical weekly training focus (low/med/high; not hours)
Milestones: skill/system outputs expected
TopRisks: dominant collapse modes
FenceRules: what must be enforced that year
PrimarySensors: most important sensors to track that year

Age 1 | Stage S0 | ZTarget Z0 | PTarget P2 (play) | Load low
Milestones: movement variety, balance play, rhythm exposure
TopRisks: forced training; fear binds
FenceRules: no specialization; protect sleep; keep fun dominant
PrimarySensors: MotorVarietyScore, SleepStability, AttachmentStability
Age 2 | S0 | Z0 | P2 | low
Milestones: coordination games; climbing/jumping safely
Risks: pressure/strictness; injury scare
Fence: no repetitive impact; zero shame language
Sensors: SleepStability, JoyBindStrength
Age 3 | S0 | Z0 | P2 | low
Milestones: rhythm + imitation; basic skating exposure optional
Risks: fear after falls
Fence: gentle exposure; confidence reps only
Sensors: FearBindLevel (qualitative), JoyBindStrength
Age 4 | S0 | Z0→Z1 | P2 | low
Milestones: structured play; attention bursts
Risks: adult outcome-lock
Fence: keep identity broad (not “skater” only)
Sensors: IdentityStability (simple proxy), JoyBindStrength
Age 5 | S0→S1 bridge | Z1 | P2 | low→med
Milestones: basic instruction tolerance; simple routines
Risks: early specialization load
Fence: MaxHoursCap(age); MinPlayFloor(age)
Sensors: FunSignal, MoodVariance

Age 6 | Stage S1 | ZTarget Z2 | PTarget P2 | Load med (fun-dominant)
Milestones: edges basics, forward/backward skating, simple spins
TopRisks: repetition overload; coach mismatch
FenceRules: variety maintained; 2 recovery days/week minimum
PrimarySensors: FunSignal, RecoveryDays, CoachTrustIndex
Age 7 | S1 | Z2 | P2 | med
Milestones: single jumps intro; balance + posture; basic program run-through (short)
Risks: fear bind after falls
Fence: regression ladder after falls; clean hits mandatory
Sensors: FearBindLevel, JumpSuccessRate(singles)
Age 8 | S1 | Z2→Z3 | P2 | med
Milestones: small local comps; warmup protocols; noise tolerance starts
Risks: shame from comparison
Fence: ComparisonExposure cap; Identity stabilizers weekly
Sensors: ShameFieldLevel, NoiseTolerance
Age 9 | S1 | Z3 | P2 | med
Milestones: singles stable; spins centered; steps basic; first “simulation day”
Risks: inconsistent reps → P1 drift
Fence: routine stability blocks; no big changes
Sensors: ProgramPassRate, MoodVariance, ρ_choice (low)

Age 10 | Stage S2 | ZTarget Z3 | PTarget P2 | Load med→high
Milestones: doubles begin; off-ice strength foundation; structured season blocks
TopRisks: impact overload; sleep debt
FenceRules: ImpactLoadIndex monitored; deload every 4 weeks
PrimarySensors: PainSignalIndex, ImpactLoadIndex, SleepDebt, R_week
Age 11 | S2 | Z3 | P2 | high (controlled)
Milestones: doubles stabilize; step sequence quality rises; first federation radar
Risks: “catch-up” spikes; boot issues
Fence: boot-fit stability checks; no load spikes after setbacks
Sensors: BootFitStability, PainSignalIndex, R_week
Age 12 | S2→S3 bridge | Z3→Z4 | P2 | high (controlled)
Milestones: pre-elite track entry; program build discipline; simulation ladder starts
Risks: early puberty onset; identity lock
Fence: buffers thickened before any difficulty push
Sensors: BufferScore, IdentityStability, P3Rate_sim (starts)

Age 13 | Stage S3 | ZTarget Z3/Z4 | PTarget P2 (protect) | Load high but impact-managed
Milestones: technique re-anchor begins; strength/mobility upgrades
TopRisks: lever-change → UR calls → shame spiral
FenceRules: GrowthVolatilityFlag ON → reduce impact; increase buffers
PrimarySensors: GrowthVolatilityFlag, UR_RiskRate, ShameFieldLevel, TTC_injury
Age 14 | S3 | Z4 | PTarget P2 | Load controlled, more rebuild weeks
Milestones: jump axis stabilizes; confidence rebuild; comps used as exposure not proof
Risks: knee/ankle injury cascade; fear binds
Fence: TR1/TR3 strict; mandatory injury stitch if pain ≥6
Sensors: PainSignalIndex, TTC_injury, FearBindLevel, R_week
Age 15 | S3→S4 bridge | Z4 | PTarget P2→P3 (begin) | Load high with strict deload
Milestones: puberty volatility declines; program consistency returns; P3 sims begin
Risks: “revenge training” load spikes
Fence: 10–15% ramp max; no panic ramps
Sensors: P3Rate_sim, BufferScore, ρ_choice (keep low)

Age 16 | Stage S4 | ZTarget Z4→Z6 (intro) | PTarget P2→P3 | Load high + variance training
Milestones: Plan A/B layouts; judging meta awareness; junior intl entry
TopRisks: travel + sleep debt; ρ_choice overload
FenceRules: never increase impact in travel weeks; change windows only
PrimarySensors: TravelLoadIndex, SleepDebt, ρ_choice, P3Rate_sim
Age 17 | S4 | Z6 | PTarget P3 in sims | Load high; comps selective
Milestones: simulation ladder matured; loss absorption installed; PCS development
Risks: media spike; outcome-lock identity
Fence: media sandbox near majors; identity stabilizer weekly
Sensors: MediaStressIndex, IdentityStability, P3Rate_sim, ProgramPassRate
Age 18 | S4→S5 bridge | Z6 | PTarget P3 | Load high but variance controlled
Milestones: stable technical content; repeatable scoring; freeze window discipline
Risks: over-competition; chronic pain normalization
Fence: competition cap; pain not ignored ever
Sensors: PainSignalIndex, R_week trend, TTC_injury, JumpSuccessRate stability

Age 19 | Stage S5 | ZTarget Z6 | PTarget P3 | Load high; recovery first-class
Milestones: PeakReadinessIndex rising; layout optimized for ExpectedScore×P3Rate
TopRisks: burnout; peak mistiming
FenceRules: mandatory off-season regeneration blocks; schedule intelligence
PrimarySensors: PeakReadinessIndex, SleepDebt, BufferScore, P3Rate_sim, R_week
Age 20 | S5 | Z6 | PTarget P3 | Load tapered around peak
Milestones: Peak attempt #1; freeze 4–6 weeks; comp protocols perfected
Risks: last-minute changes; travel shock
Fence: absolute freeze window; travel buffer days built in
Sensors: ρ_choice (must be near 0), TravelLoadIndex, PainSignalIndex, P3Rate_sim ≥0.85
Age 21 | S5 | Z6 | PTarget P3 | Load controlled; second peak attempt
Milestones: Peak attempt #2; micro-stitching mastery (fast repairs)
Risks: small pain ignored → big collapse
Fence: TR triggers fire immediately; stitch fast
Sensors: TTC_injury, PainSignalIndex, R_week, BufferScore
Age 22 | S5→S6 bridge | Z6 | PTarget P3 | Load shifts toward efficiency
Milestones: sustain plan; technique efficiency; identity expands beyond sport
Risks: post-peak identity crash
Fence: post-peak recovery corridor; purpose widening
Sensors: MotivationSignal, IdentityStability, JoyBindStrength

Age 23 | Stage S6 | ZTarget Z6 | PTarget P3 | Load high but impact smarter
Milestones: efficiency upgrades; injury prevention becomes dominant
Risks: chronic injury creep
FenceRules: impact budgeting; longer recovery blocks
PrimarySensors: ChronicInjuryIndex, TTC_injury, BufferScore
Age 24 | S6 | Z6 | P3 | high (efficient)
Milestones: possible second peak build; schedule optimized
Risks: motivation drift
Fence: joy bind maintenance; identity diversification
Sensors: JoyBindStrength, MotivationSignal, R_week
Age 25 | S6 | Z6 | P3 | high/med depending
Milestones: peak attempt or controlled taper year
Risks: burnout from repetition monotony
Fence: variation without ρ_choice overload (Architect handles)
Sensors: ρ_choice, MoodVariance, P3Rate_sim
Age 26 | S6 | Z5–Z6 | P2–P3 | med/high
Milestones: sustain or transition planning
Risks: outcome grief
Fence: grief-shock protocol; coaching/role shift planning
Sensors: ShameFieldLevel, IdentityStability
Age 27 | S6 | Z5 | P2–P3 | med
Milestones: mentorship roles; coaching interest; life corridor expands
Risks: “cliff exit” without buffers
Fence: staged transition; stable income/time buffers
Sensors: BufferScore, MotivationSignal
Age 28 | S6 | Z4–Z5 | P2 | med
Milestones: second career corridor; teaching/brand routing
Risks: regret loops
Fence: meaning reconstruction; keep mastery channel alive
Sensors: MindOS (purpose stability proxy), JoyBindStrength
Age 29 | S6 | Z4 | P2 | med/low
Milestones: healthy long-term movement; injury rehabilitation complete
Risks: chronic pain lock-in
Fence: medical/physio consistency; low-impact conditioning
Sensors: ChronicInjuryIndex, PainSignalIndex
Age 30 | S6 | Z3–Z5 | P2–P3 | low/med
Milestones: stable post-elite life; transferable mastery pipeline preserved
Risks: identity collapse if “only athlete” identity persisted
Fence: identity portfolio locked; community role binds
Sensors: IdentityStability, BufferScore, JoyBindStrength

S0 (0–5): JoyBind + movement variety
S1 (6–9): skill ignition + fun-dominant structure
S2 (10–12): specialization ramp + impact controls
S3 (13–15): puberty valley + buffer thickening + stitch mastery
S4 (16–18): elite exposure + P2→P3 conversion via simulation
S5 (19–22): peak corridor + freeze discipline + medal attempts
S6 (23–30): sustain/second peak/transition without P0 crash

0–9: protect fun + sleep; avoid repetition overload
10–12: impact load monitoring; deload cycles; no panic ramps
13–15: GrowthVolatility ON → impact reduction + identity protection
16–18: never stack travel spike + impact increase; ρ_choice controlled
19–22: freeze window absolute; recovery first-class; simulate stakes
23–30: efficiency + injury prevention + identity portfolio

To use:
1) find the athlete’s current age row
2) apply that year’s FenceRules immediately
3) track the PrimarySensors weekly
4) use ChronoHelmAI scheduler to generate the next 12-week plan
5) never allow R_week>1 to persist; truncate/stitch early

DatasetID: SKB_LIFETABLE_FSINGLES
Version: v1.0
Instance: Athlete SK-B (hypothetical)
Start: Age 12 (late specialization)
PeakTarget: Age 24–27
PrimaryGoal: P3@Z6 in PeakWindow (Age 24–27)
DistinctiveTrait: Strong general athletic base; high identity stability; delayed technical peak

- Lower early Z exposure
- Less puberty-geometry disruption (if specialization post-peak growth)
- Higher identity stability baseline
- Slower technical ramp but stronger buffers
- Peak window shifted later

Age | Stage | ZTarget | PTarget | LoadRange | Milestones | TopRisks | FenceRules | PrimarySensors

Age 12 | Stage S2 (late entry) | ZTarget Z2 | PTarget P2 | Load med
Milestones: edge control accelerated; singles stabilized; doubles intro
TopRisks: too-fast ramp to “catch up”
FenceRules: strict 10% ramp cap; no quad ambition; buffer >70 before difficulty push
PrimarySensors: ImpactLoadIndex, BufferScore, R_week
Age 13 | S2 | Z3 | P2 | med→high (controlled)
Milestones: doubles stabilize; off-ice strength emphasis; technique precision
Risks: load spike panic
Fence: no difficulty increases if R_week trending up
Sensors: PainSignalIndex, R_week, JumpSuccessRate(doubles)
Age 14 | S3 (puberty near end) | Z3 | P2 | high but impact-managed
Milestones: puberty volatility smaller; technique stability strong
Risks: comparison shame vs early starters
Fence: ComparisonExposure cap; identity stabilizers
Sensors: ShameFieldLevel, IdentityStability

Age 15 | Stage S4 | ZTarget Z4 | P2→P3 in sims | Load high
Milestones: triples begin; simulation ladder installed early
TopRisks: overtraining due to fast gains
FenceRules: deload every 4 weeks; no stacking travel+impact
PrimarySensors: P3Rate_sim, ImpactLoadIndex, SleepDebt
Age 16 | S4 | Z4→Z6 intro | P3 in sims | high
Milestones: junior intl entry; PCS focus; layout Plan A/B
Risks: ρ_choice overload (too many upgrades)
Fence: scheduled change windows only
Sensors: ρ_choice, JumpSuccessRate, UR_RiskRate
Age 17 | S4 | Z6 | P3 | high with variance training
Milestones: consistent triple content; noise tolerance strong
Risks: burnout from acceleration
Fence: buffer >75 before adding difficulty
Sensors: BufferScore, R_week, TTC_injury

Age 18 | Stage S5 build | Z6 | P3 | high
Milestones: stable triple layout; possibly first quad attempt (low frequency)
TopRisks: quad tendon overload
FenceRules: quad attempts capped/week; impact budgeting strict
PrimarySensors: PainSignalIndex(ankle/knee), ImpactLoadIndex, R_week
Age 19 | S5 | Z6 | P3 | high
Milestones: first senior intl season; P3Rate_sim ≥0.75
Risks: media spike; identity drift
Fence: media sandbox near majors
Sensors: MediaStressIndex, IdentityStability, P3Rate_sim
Age 20 | S5 | Z6 | P3 | high but smarter
Milestones: layout optimized for ExpectedScore×P3Rate
Risks: plateau frustration
Fence: avoid panic changes; maintain ρ_choice low
Sensors: ρ_choice, JumpSuccessRate stability, BufferScore

Age 21 | Stage S5 | Z6 | P3 attempt | high
Event: Minor injury mid-season
TopRisks: rushing return → chronic injury
FenceRules: TR1 + SP-SK0 executed fully
PrimarySensors: TTC_injury, PainSignalIndex, R_week
Outcome:
- 6–10 week stitch
- PeakWindow missed but no P0 spiral (buffers preserved)

Age 22 | Stage S5 | Z6 | P2→P3 rebuild | med→high
Milestones: technique efficiency upgrade; reduced difficulty but cleaner GOE
Risks: shame spiral after missed peak
Fence: LossAbsorption sim; identity reinforcement
Sensors: ShameFieldLevel, P3Rate_sim, BufferScore

Age 23 | Stage S5 | Z6 | P3 | high
Milestones: comeback season; P3Rate_sim ≥0.8
Risks: overcompensation with difficulty
Fence: ExpectedScore×P3Rate rule enforced
Sensors: ρ_choice, JumpSuccessRate, PainSignalIndex

Age 24 | Stage S5 Peak | Z6 | P3 | high but efficient
Milestones: Peak attempt #1; freeze discipline; travel buffers built
TopRisks: small pain ignored
FenceRules: Pain threshold strict; freeze 4–6 weeks
PrimarySensors: PainSignalIndex ≤2–3, ρ_choice≈0, P3Rate_sim ≥0.85
Age 25 | S5 | Z6 | P3 | high
Milestones: Peak attempt #2; refined layout; PCS matured
Risks: emotional exhaustion
Fence: recovery block enforced post-major
Sensors: BufferScore, MotivationSignal
Age 26 | S5 | Z6 | P3 | med→high
Milestones: second peak or maintenance
Risks: chronic injury creep
Fence: impact budgeting; longer off-season
Sensors: ChronicInjuryIndex, TTC_injury
Age 27 | S5→S6 bridge | Z6 | P2–P3 | med
Milestones: planned transition; optional final peak
Risks: identity cliff
Fence: staged retirement corridor
Sensors: IdentityStability, JoyBindStrength

Age 28 | Stage S6 | Z5 | P2 | med
Milestones: coaching/mentorship; brand shift
Risks: regret loops
FenceRules: purpose reconstruction
PrimarySensors: IdentityStability, BufferScore
Age 29 | S6 | Z4–Z5 | P2 | low→med
Milestones: healthy movement; injury rehab complete
Risks: chronic pain normalization
Fence: physio consistency
Sensors: PainSignalIndex, ChronicInjuryIndex
Age 30 | S6 | Z3–Z5 | P2 | low
Milestones: stable post-elite life corridor
Risks: nostalgia-driven overreach
Fence: keep mastery channel alive but low impact
Sensors: JoyBindStrength, MotivationSignal

R(t) < 1 sustained
Buffers thickened before load spikes
ρ_choice controlled
FenceOS triggers fire early
P3Rate_sim ≥ threshold before peak

ModuleID: FIGURESKATING_CORRIDOR_MATRIX
Version: v1.0
Purpose: Show all structural outcomes under CivOS laws.
Axes: Stage (S0–S6), Phase (P0–P3), Rate (R=D/G), Buffer (B), SymChoice (ρ_choice), Fence compliance
Outputs: CorridorType classification

R(t) = D/G
B(t) = BufferScore
ρ_choice(t)
TTC_injury
P3Rate_sim
GrowthVolatilityFlag
FreezeCompliance

Puberty Stitch: SUCCESS
R(t): stays < 1
B(t): > threshold before every ramp
ρ_choice: low near peak
FreezeCompliance: strict
P3Rate_sim: ≥0.85 before major
TTC_injury: >> event horizon
Outcome: Medal plausible

Early ramp conservative
Buffers thicker baseline
Puberty disruption minimal
PeakWindow shifted later
R(t): stable <1
ImpactLoadIndex: smarter budgeting
Outcome: Longer P3 durability

P0 Event: injury or burnout
Critical variable: IdentityStability preserved
Fence: full stitch protocol executed
Load ramp: slow rebuild
R(t): restored <1 before difficulty push
Outcome: Peak window delayed but viable

R(t): slightly <1 but variance tolerance insufficient
P3Rate_sim: 0.6–0.75 plateau
ρ_choice: moderate fluctuations
Freeze discipline partial
Outcome: Final group, top 10–15, but no medal

GrowthVolatilityFlag ON
UR_RiskRate↑
ShameField↑
FearBind↑
Load spike “to catch up”
R(t)>1 sustained
TTC_injury falls
Fence not triggered
Outcome: P0 discontinuity (quit or long injury)

TravelLoad↑ + MediaStress↑ + ImpactLoad↑
SleepDebt↑
BufferScore↓
R(t)>1 for 4–6 weeks
ρ_choice spike near peak
Freeze violated
Outcome: Collapse before major event

PainSignalIndex normalized (“I can skate through it”)
ImpactLoad steady high
TTC_injury gradually declines
No truncation
Micro-damage accumulates
Sudden fracture or surgery
Outcome: P0

R(t)<1
Buffers stable
Z exposure capped at Z4–Z5
P2 stable
Outcome: Healthy skating life, no Z6 push

High Buffer + Low ρ_choice + R<1 → Stable P3 Corridor
Low Buffer + High ρ_choice + R>1 → Collapse Corridor
High Buffer + Moderate R + Controlled ρ → Sustainable P2
Low Buffer + GrowthVolatility ON + No Fence → S3 Collapse

IF P3Rate_sim ≥0.85 AND FreezeCompliance TRUE AND R<1:
    Corridor = MedalClass
ELSE IF P3Rate_sim 0.7–0.85 AND R<1:
    Corridor = HighElite
ELSE IF R>1 sustained:
    Corridor = CollapseRisk
ELSE IF P2 stable, Z<6:
    Corridor = SustainableNonElite

Collapse = rate inequality
Stability = buffer thickness + controlled symmetry break
Peak = freeze discipline + variance conversion

ModuleID: FIGURESKATING_PROB_CORRIDOR
Version: v1.0
Goal: Estimate P(CorridorType | Sensors, Stage, Calendar) weekly.
Corridors: {C1 EarlyMedal, C2 LateMedal, C3 ComebackMedal, C4 EliteNonMedal, C5 PubertyCollapse, C6 PeakBurnout, C7 ChronicInjuryDrift, C8 SustainableNonElite}
Method: Bayesian-style sequential update + hazard gates + Markov phase transitions.
Output: probability vector over corridor types + next-12-week risk forecast + recommended Fence actions.
Dependencies: Sensor Pack, FenceOS, SymChoiceOS, MindOS/EmotionOS, ChronoHelmAI scheduler (optional)

O_t = {
  Stage S, Age, WeeksToMajor,
  R_week, BufferScore B, SleepDebt,
  TTC_injury, TTC_burnout,
  ρ_choice, P3Rate_sim,
  PainSignalIndex (per joint),
  JumpSuccessRate stability, UR_RiskRate,
  FearBindLevel, ShameFieldLevel,
  TravelLoadIndex, MediaStressIndex,
  GrowthVolatilityFlag
}

X_t = {Phase P_t, InjuryLatent I_t, BurnoutLatent U_t, IdentityLatent Y_t}

If Stage S1–S2 (≤12):
  Prior: C5 low, C6 low, C7 low; C8 moderate; C4 moderate; C2 later-weighted
If Stage S3 (13–15):
  Prior: C5 increases (puberty valley)
If Stage S5 (19–22) and WeeksToMajor < 24:
  Prior: C6 increases (peak burnout risk); C1/C4 depend heavily on P3Rate_sim + Freeze compliance
If Stage S6 (23–30):
  Prior: C2/C3 increase; C7 increases if pain trend present

π0 = [pC1..pC8], sum=1

f1 = clamp(R_week, 0, 2)                          // rate-dominance
f2 = clamp((B_min - B)/B_min, 0, 1)               // buffer deficit
f3 = clamp((ρ_choice - ρ*)/ρ*, 0, 2)              // symmetry-break overload
f4 = clamp((TTC_threshold - TTC_injury)/TTC_threshold, 0, 1)
f5 = clamp((0.85 - P3Rate_sim)/0.85, 0, 1)        // P3 conversion deficit
f6 = GrowthVolatilityFlag ? 1 : 0
f7 = clamp(PainTrend, 0, 1)
f8 = clamp(SleepDebt/SD_max, 0, 1)
f9 = clamp(TravelLoadIndex/TL_max, 0, 1)
f10= clamp(MediaStressIndex/MS_max, 0, 1)
f11= clamp(FearBindLevel/FB_max, 0, 1)
f12= clamp(ShameFieldLevel/SH_max, 0, 1)

h_injury = σ( a0
            + a1*f4        // TTC short
            + a2*f7        // pain trend
            + a3*f8        // sleep debt
            + a4*ImpactLoadTrend
            + a5*f6 )      // puberty lever-change

h_burnout = σ( b0
             + b1*f1       // R>1 pressure
             + b2*f2       // buffer deficit
             + b3*f8       // sleep debt
             + b4*f9       // travel load
             + b5*f10      // media load
             + b6*f12 )    // shame field

h_shear = σ( c0
           + c1*f3         // ρ_choice overload
           + c2*f9         // travel noise
           + c3*f11        // fear bind
           + c4*f12 )      // shame field

σ(z) = 1/(1+e^-z)

P(P_{t+1}=P3 | P_t=P2) increases with (1 - f5) and low hazards
P(P_{t+1}=P2 | P_t=P3) increases with h_shear + travel spikes
P(P_{t+1}=P1 | P_t=P2) increases with h_shear
P(P_{t+1}=P0 | P_t=P1) increases with h_injury + h_burnout + R>1 persistence

p_down = clamp( 0.1*h_shear + 0.2*h_injury + 0.2*h_burnout + 0.2*I[R_week>1 persistent], 0, 0.9)
p_up   = clamp( 0.3*(1-f5) + 0.2*(B/B_min) - 0.3*(h_shear+h_injury+h_burnout), 0, 0.6)

Signature:
- Stage S4–S5
- P3Rate_sim high (≥0.85 near peak)
- ρ_choice low + freeze compliance
- R_week < 1 stable
- hazards low

Signature:
- Older peak window (S5/S6, Age 23–27)
- strong buffers, efficient load
- hazards controlled
- stable P3 conversion

Signature:
- past P0/P1 event BUT
- stitch compliance high + identity stable + hazards reduced
- P3Rate_sim rising trend

Signature:
- R_week <1, but P3Rate_sim plateau 0.70–0.84
- hazards moderate; shear events occur

Signature:
- Stage S3 + GrowthVolatility ON
- UR_RiskRate↑ + Shame/Fear↑
- buffer deficit + no truncation firing early

Signature:
- WeeksToMajor < 24
- travel/media/sleep debt spike
- buffer erosion + R_week>1 persistence
- ρ_choice spike near peak

Signature:
- pain normalized; TTC_injury slowly falling
- repeated impact without truncation
- eventual P drop despite “working hard”

Signature:
- hazards low; R<1; buffers ok
- Z6 not pursued OR deliberately capped
- P2 stable

Score(Ck) = Σ_i w_{k,i} * feature_i
Posterior(Ck) ∝ Prior(Ck) * exp(Score(Ck))
Normalize to sum=1

Given prior π_{t-1}:
1) Compute hazards h_injury, h_burnout, h_shear
2) Compute corridor scores Score(Ck | O_t)
3) Update:
   π_t(Ck) = Normalize( π_{t-1}(Ck) * exp(Score(Ck)) )
4) Forecast 12-week risk:
   - simulate phase transitions + hazards to estimate P(P0 event), P(P3 at event)
5) Output:
   - π_t vector
   - Top risk drivers
   - Required Fence actions (if triggers)
   - Recommended next 12-week block schedule

If TRUNCATE_IMPACT executed:
  TTC_injury ↑
  PainTrend ↓
  h_injury ↓
  R_week tends ↓
  ⇒ shifts probability mass away from C7/C5/C6 toward C3/C4/C8 (short-term), then back toward medal corridors if P3Rate_sim recovers.

If CORRIDOR_FREEZE executed:
  ρ_choice ↓
  h_shear ↓
  P stability ↑
  ⇒ shifts probability from C4/C6 toward C1/C2 (if P3Rate_sim high) or toward C4 stable (if P3 not yet).

If IdentityRepairBlock executed:
  ShameFieldLevel ↓, FearBind ↓
  h_burnout ↓, h_shear ↓
  ⇒ shifts probability away from C5/C6 toward C3/C4/C8.

REPORT:
  Date: __
  WeeksToMajor: __
  CurrentPhase: P__
  Hazards:
    h_injury: __
    h_burnout: __
    h_shear: __
  PosteriorCorridors π_t:
    C1 EarlyMedal: __
    C2 LateMedal: __
    C3 ComebackMedal: __
    C4 EliteNonMedal: __
    C5 PubertyCollapse: __
    C6 PeakBurnout: __
    C7 ChronicInjuryDrift: __
    C8 SustainableNonElite: __
  TopDrivers (max 5):
    - __
  RequiredFenceActions (if any):
    - __
  RecommendedNextBlock (12 weeks):
    - {ProgramBuild/StressBuild/Peak/Recovery} + weekly plan
  EventForecast:
    P(P3 at MajorEvent): __
    P(P0 event before MajorEvent): __

h_injury ~ low-moderate
h_burnout ~ moderate
h_shear ~ moderate
Posterior might shift toward:
C4 EliteNonMedal (if P3Rate_sim plateaus)
C1 EarlyMedal increases if: freeze discipline + P3Rate_sim rises to ≥0.85

Add module: FIGURESKATING_PROB_CORRIDOR v1.0
Expose API-style functions:
- UpdatePosterior(O_t, π_{t-1}) → π_t
- ComputeHazards(O_t) → {h_injury,h_burnout,h_shear}
- RecommendActions(O_t, π_t) → Fence actions + schedule block

ModuleID: FIGURESKATING_PROB_CORRIDOR
Version: v1.0
Goal: Estimate P(CorridorType | Sensors, Stage, Calendar) weekly.
Corridors: {C1 EarlyMedal, C2 LateMedal, C3 ComebackMedal, C4 EliteNonMedal, C5 PubertyCollapse, C6 PeakBurnout, C7 ChronicInjuryDrift, C8 SustainableNonElite}
Method: Bayesian-style sequential update + hazard gates + Markov phase transitions.
Output: probability vector over corridor types + next-12-week risk forecast + recommended Fence actions.
Dependencies: Sensor Pack, FenceOS, SymChoiceOS, MindOS/EmotionOS, ChronoHelmAI scheduler (optional)

O_t = {
  Stage S, Age, WeeksToMajor,
  R_week, BufferScore B, SleepDebt,
  TTC_injury, TTC_burnout,
  ρ_choice, P3Rate_sim,
  PainSignalIndex (per joint),
  JumpSuccessRate stability, UR_RiskRate,
  FearBindLevel, ShameFieldLevel,
  TravelLoadIndex, MediaStressIndex,
  GrowthVolatilityFlag
}

X_t = {Phase P_t, InjuryLatent I_t, BurnoutLatent U_t, IdentityLatent Y_t}

If Stage S1–S2 (≤12):
  Prior: C5 low, C6 low, C7 low; C8 moderate; C4 moderate; C2 later-weighted
If Stage S3 (13–15):
  Prior: C5 increases (puberty valley)
If Stage S5 (19–22) and WeeksToMajor < 24:
  Prior: C6 increases (peak burnout risk); C1/C4 depend heavily on P3Rate_sim + Freeze compliance
If Stage S6 (23–30):
  Prior: C2/C3 increase; C7 increases if pain trend present

π0 = [pC1..pC8], sum=1

f1 = clamp(R_week, 0, 2)                          // rate-dominance
f2 = clamp((B_min - B)/B_min, 0, 1)               // buffer deficit
f3 = clamp((ρ_choice - ρ*)/ρ*, 0, 2)              // symmetry-break overload
f4 = clamp((TTC_threshold - TTC_injury)/TTC_threshold, 0, 1)
f5 = clamp((0.85 - P3Rate_sim)/0.85, 0, 1)        // P3 conversion deficit
f6 = GrowthVolatilityFlag ? 1 : 0
f7 = clamp(PainTrend, 0, 1)
f8 = clamp(SleepDebt/SD_max, 0, 1)
f9 = clamp(TravelLoadIndex/TL_max, 0, 1)
f10= clamp(MediaStressIndex/MS_max, 0, 1)
f11= clamp(FearBindLevel/FB_max, 0, 1)
f12= clamp(ShameFieldLevel/SH_max, 0, 1)

h_injury = σ( a0
            + a1*f4        // TTC short
            + a2*f7        // pain trend
            + a3*f8        // sleep debt
            + a4*ImpactLoadTrend
            + a5*f6 )      // puberty lever-change

h_burnout = σ( b0
             + b1*f1       // R>1 pressure
             + b2*f2       // buffer deficit
             + b3*f8       // sleep debt
             + b4*f9       // travel load
             + b5*f10      // media load
             + b6*f12 )    // shame field

h_shear = σ( c0
           + c1*f3         // ρ_choice overload
           + c2*f9         // travel noise
           + c3*f11        // fear bind
           + c4*f12 )      // shame field

σ(z) = 1/(1+e^-z)

P(P_{t+1}=P3 | P_t=P2) increases with (1 - f5) and low hazards
P(P_{t+1}=P2 | P_t=P3) increases with h_shear + travel spikes
P(P_{t+1}=P1 | P_t=P2) increases with h_shear
P(P_{t+1}=P0 | P_t=P1) increases with h_injury + h_burnout + R>1 persistence

p_down = clamp( 0.1*h_shear + 0.2*h_injury + 0.2*h_burnout + 0.2*I[R_week>1 persistent], 0, 0.9)
p_up   = clamp( 0.3*(1-f5) + 0.2*(B/B_min) - 0.3*(h_shear+h_injury+h_burnout), 0, 0.6)

Signature:
- Stage S4–S5
- P3Rate_sim high (≥0.85 near peak)
- ρ_choice low + freeze compliance
- R_week < 1 stable
- hazards low

Signature:
- Older peak window (S5/S6, Age 23–27)
- strong buffers, efficient load
- hazards controlled
- stable P3 conversion

Signature:
- past P0/P1 event BUT
- stitch compliance high + identity stable + hazards reduced
- P3Rate_sim rising trend

Signature:
- R_week <1, but P3Rate_sim plateau 0.70–0.84
- hazards moderate; shear events occur

Signature:
- Stage S3 + GrowthVolatility ON
- UR_RiskRate↑ + Shame/Fear↑
- buffer deficit + no truncation firing early

Signature:
- WeeksToMajor < 24
- travel/media/sleep debt spike
- buffer erosion + R_week>1 persistence
- ρ_choice spike near peak

Signature:
- pain normalized; TTC_injury slowly falling
- repeated impact without truncation
- eventual P drop despite “working hard”

Signature:
- hazards low; R<1; buffers ok
- Z6 not pursued OR deliberately capped
- P2 stable

Score(Ck) = Σ_i w_{k,i} * feature_i
Posterior(Ck) ∝ Prior(Ck) * exp(Score(Ck))
Normalize to sum=1

Given prior π_{t-1}:
1) Compute hazards h_injury, h_burnout, h_shear
2) Compute corridor scores Score(Ck | O_t)
3) Update:
   π_t(Ck) = Normalize( π_{t-1}(Ck) * exp(Score(Ck)) )
4) Forecast 12-week risk:
   - simulate phase transitions + hazards to estimate P(P0 event), P(P3 at event)
5) Output:
   - π_t vector
   - Top risk drivers
   - Required Fence actions (if triggers)
   - Recommended next 12-week block schedule

If TRUNCATE_IMPACT executed:
  TTC_injury ↑
  PainTrend ↓
  h_injury ↓
  R_week tends ↓
  ⇒ shifts probability mass away from C7/C5/C6 toward C3/C4/C8 (short-term), then back toward medal corridors if P3Rate_sim recovers.

If CORRIDOR_FREEZE executed:
  ρ_choice ↓
  h_shear ↓
  P stability ↑
  ⇒ shifts probability from C4/C6 toward C1/C2 (if P3Rate_sim high) or toward C4 stable (if P3 not yet).

If IdentityRepairBlock executed:
  ShameFieldLevel ↓, FearBind ↓
  h_burnout ↓, h_shear ↓
  ⇒ shifts probability away from C5/C6 toward C3/C4/C8.

REPORT:
  Date: __
  WeeksToMajor: __
  CurrentPhase: P__
  Hazards:
    h_injury: __
    h_burnout: __
    h_shear: __
  PosteriorCorridors π_t:
    C1 EarlyMedal: __
    C2 LateMedal: __
    C3 ComebackMedal: __
    C4 EliteNonMedal: __
    C5 PubertyCollapse: __
    C6 PeakBurnout: __
    C7 ChronicInjuryDrift: __
    C8 SustainableNonElite: __
  TopDrivers (max 5):
    - __
  RequiredFenceActions (if any):
    - __
  RecommendedNextBlock (12 weeks):
    - {ProgramBuild/StressBuild/Peak/Recovery} + weekly plan
  EventForecast:
    P(P3 at MajorEvent): __
    P(P0 event before MajorEvent): __

h_injury ~ low-moderate
h_burnout ~ moderate
h_shear ~ moderate
Posterior might shift toward:
C4 EliteNonMedal (if P3Rate_sim plateaus)
C1 EarlyMedal increases if: freeze discipline + P3Rate_sim rises to ≥0.85

Add module: FIGURESKATING_PROB_CORRIDOR v1.0
Expose API-style functions:
- UpdatePosterior(O_t, π_{t-1}) → π_t
- ComputeHazards(O_t) → {h_injury,h_burnout,h_shear}
- RecommendActions(O_t, π_t) → Fence actions + schedule block

ModuleID: OLYMPIC_CORRIDOR_CONTROL_PANEL
Version: v1.0
Domain: Figure Skating Singles (adaptable)
Purpose: One dashboard that (1) classifies corridor, (2) forecasts risks, (3) outputs next 12-week plan.
CoreLoop: Sense → Predict → Fence → Schedule → Simulate → Freeze → Output
Dependencies:
  - FIGURESKATING_MEDALIST_OS v1.0
  - FIGURESKATING_CORRIDOR_MATRIX v1.0
  - FIGURESKATING_PROB_CORRIDOR v1.0
  - CHAI_SCHEDULER_SKATING v1.0

Run Olympic Corridor Control Panel v1.0:
1) Apply FenceOS triggers first
2) Compute hazards + posterior corridor probabilities
3) Classify current corridor type (C1–C8)
4) Output a 12-week SchedulePack with block sequence + weekly actions
5) Provide FreezeWindow rules if within 6–24 weeks of MajorEvent
6) Provide top 5 drivers + 3 concrete “do now” actions
Return in Almost-Code.

AthleteID: SK-____
Age: __
Stage: S__                 // S0..S6
CurrentPhase: P__          // P0..P3
ZExposure: Z__             // Z0..Z6
BaselineJumpSet: { ... }
BaselineProgram: {SP, FP}
BaselineTraining: {OnIce, OffIceStrength, Plyo, Dance}

MajorEvent:
  Name: __
  Date: YYYY-MM-DD
  Importance: A
MinorEvents: [ {Name, Date, Importance}, ... ]
TravelProfile:
  TypicalTimeZoneShiftHours: __
  TravelDaysPerTrip: __
FreezeWindowWeeks: 4        // 2–6

R_week: __
BufferScore_B: __           // 0–100
SleepDebtHours: __
TTC_injury_weeks: __
TTC_burnout_weeks: __
ρ_choice: __
P3Rate_sim: __
PainSignalIndex: {ankle:__, knee:__, hip:__, back:__}   // 0–10
ImpactLoadIndex: __
JumpSuccessRate: { ... }    // % or ratio
UR_RiskRate: __
FearBindLevel: __
ShameFieldLevel: __
TravelLoadIndex: __
MediaStressIndex: __
GrowthVolatilityFlag: {ON/OFF}
FreezeCompliance: {TRUE/FALSE/NA}

Trend:
  R_week: [__,__,__,__]
  BufferScore_B: [__,__,__,__]
  SleepDebt: [__,__,__,__]
  TTC_injury: [__,__,__,__]
  ρ_choice: [__,__,__,__]
  P3Rate_sim: [__,__,__,__]
  PainTrend: {ankle:[..], knee:[..], hip:[..], back:[..]}

TR1: any joint Pain ≥6 for 7 days
  → ACTION: TRUNCATE_IMPACT(7–21d) + MEDICAL_CHECK
  → BLOCK: InjuryStitch SP-SK0
TR2: TTC_injury < 8w
  → ACTION: IMMEDIATE_LOAD_REDUCTION + NO_NEW_CONTENT
  → BLOCK: InjuryStitch
TR3: (SleepDebt ↑) AND (ImpactLoad ↑) same week
  → ACTION: IMPACT_CUT(7–14d) + BUFFER_RESET
TR4: ρ_choice > ρ* for 2 consecutive weeks
  → ACTION: CORRIDOR_FREEZE(2–6w)
TR5: R_week > 1 for 3 consecutive weeks
  → ACTION: STITCHING_PROTOCOL(7–14d)
TR6: FearBind ↑ AND JumpSuccessRate ↓ for 2 weeks
  → ACTION: FEAR_BIND_STITCH SP-SK1
TR7: Identity stability proxy collapsing (ShameField high + avoidance + mood crash)
  → ACTION: IDENTITY_REPAIR_BLOCK (MindOS/EmotionOS)

FenceStatus:
  ActiveTriggers: [ ... ]
  RequiredActions: [ ... ]
  OverrideMode: {TRUE/FALSE}

h_injury  = Risk( TTC_injury, PainTrend, ImpactTrend, SleepDebt, GrowthVolatilityFlag )
h_burnout = Risk( R_week trend, Buffer deficit, SleepDebt, Travel, Media, ShameField )
h_shear   = Risk( ρ_choice, Travel, FearBind, ShameField )

Hazards:
  h_injury: __
  h_burnout: __
  h_shear: __

C1 EarlyMedal
C2 LateMedal
C3 ComebackMedal
C4 EliteNonMedal
C5 PubertyCollapse
C6 PeakBurnout
C7 ChronicInjuryDrift
C8 SustainableNonElite

π_t(Ck) ∝ π_{t-1}(Ck) * exp(Score(Ck | O_t))
normalize Σ π_t = 1

PosteriorCorridors π_t:
  C1: __
  C2: __
  C3: __
  C4: __
  C5: __
  C6: __
  C7: __
  C8: __

IF P3Rate_sim ≥0.85 AND R_week<1 AND ρ_choice low AND (WeeksToMajor <= 24):
    CorridorClass = C1 or C2 (age-dependent)
ELSE IF recent P0/P1 event AND stitch compliance high:
    CorridorClass = C3
ELSE IF P3Rate_sim 0.70–0.84 AND R_week<1:
    CorridorClass = C4
ELSE IF Stage=S3 AND GrowthVolatility ON AND Shame/Fear rising:
    CorridorClass = C5
ELSE IF WeeksToMajor <= 24 AND BufferScore falling AND R_week rising:
    CorridorClass = C6
ELSE IF TTC_injury trending down + pain normalized:
    CorridorClass = C7
ELSE:
    CorridorClass = C8

CorridorClass: C__
Reason: [top 3 drivers]

WeeksToMajor
FenceStatus.OverrideMode
Hazards
PosteriorCorridors

If OverrideMode TRUE:
  Plan begins with {Stitch/BufferReset/Freeze}
Else:
  If WeeksToMajor > 24: Base→Program→Stress mini-loop
  If 12–24: Program→Stress→Peak
  If 6–12: Stress→Peak
  If 2–6: Peak only (freeze)

- Load ramp ≤10–15%/week (unless truncation)
- Never stack travel spike + impact increase
- Deload every 3–5 weeks
- ChangeWindows allowed only outside PeakWindow

SchedulePack (12 weeks):
  BlockSequence: [ ... ]
  Week-by-week:
    W1: {LoadTargets, ImpactTargets, Sims, ChangeWindow?, FenceActions}
    ...
  SimulationPlan:
    {SIM types, frequency, pass criteria}

If WeeksToMajor <= FreezeWindowWeeks:
  FreezeWindow = ACTIVE

Freeze Rules:
- ρ_choice target ≈ 0
- no new elements
- no equipment changes unless emergency
- travel buffers + sleep priority
- simulations low variance (confidence reps)

FreezeWindow:
  Status: ACTIVE/INACTIVE
  StartDate: __
  Rules: [ ... ]

If h_injury high → truncate impact + physio + technique efficiency
If h_burnout high → buffer reset + reduce travel/media + identity repair
If h_shear high → freeze corridor + reduce changes + simplify operator tasks
If P3Rate_sim low → add sims + reduce variance elsewhere + clean hit ladder

DoNow:
1) __
2) __
3) __

Forecast:
  P(P3 at MajorEvent): __
  P(P0 event before MajorEvent): __
  BiggestThreat: {injury/burnout/shear}
  PrimaryMitigation: {truncate/stitch/freeze/buffer}

REPORT v1.0:
- FenceStatus
- Hazards
- PosteriorCorridors
- CorridorClass + reasons
- SchedulePack 12 weeks
- FreezeWindow status/rules
- DoNow actions
- EventForecast

AthleteID: SK-A20
Age: 20
Stage: S5
CurrentPhase: P3 (in sims), P2–P3 in comps
ZExposure: Z6
BaselineJumpSet: {3A, 3Lz+3T, 3F, 3Lo, 3S, 2A}
BaselineProgram: {SP, FP}
BaselineTraining: {OnIce=high, OffIceStrength=med, Plyo=med, Dance=med}

MajorEvent:
  Name: Worlds
  Date: YYYY-MM-DD (+10 weeks from now)
  Importance: A
MinorEvents:
  - {Name: Challenger, Date: +6 weeks, Importance: B}
TravelProfile:
  TypicalTimeZoneShiftHours: 7
  TravelDaysPerTrip: 4
FreezeWindowWeeks: 4

R_week: 0.82
BufferScore_B: 78
SleepDebtHours: 3
TTC_injury_weeks: 18
TTC_burnout_weeks: 16
ρ_choice: 0.25 (low)
P3Rate_sim: 0.88
PainSignalIndex: {ankle:1, knee:2, hip:1, back:1}
ImpactLoadIndex: 1.00 (baseline)
JumpSuccessRate: {3A:0.72, 3Lz:0.80, 3F:0.78, combos:0.70}
UR_RiskRate: 0.10 (low)
FearBindLevel: 1/10
ShameFieldLevel: 2/10
TravelLoadIndex: 0.30 (moderate)
MediaStressIndex: 0.25 (low)
GrowthVolatilityFlag: OFF
FreezeCompliance: NA (not in freeze window yet)

Trend:
  R_week: [0.86, 0.84, 0.83, 0.82]          (improving)
  BufferScore_B: [74, 76, 77, 78]           (improving)
  SleepDebt: [6, 4, 4, 3]                   (improving)
  TTC_injury: [14, 15, 16, 18]              (improving)
  ρ_choice: [0.35, 0.30, 0.28, 0.25]        (improving)
  P3Rate_sim: [0.80, 0.83, 0.86, 0.88]      (improving)
  PainTrend: {ankle:[1,1,1,1], knee:[3,2,2,2], hip:[1,1,1,1], back:[1,1,1,1]}

FenceStatus:
  ActiveTriggers: []
  RequiredActions: []
  OverrideMode: FALSE

Hazards:
  h_injury: 0.18 (low)
  h_burnout: 0.22 (low)
  h_shear: 0.15 (low)

PosteriorCorridors π_t:
  C1 EarlyMedal: 0.62
  C2 LateMedal: 0.10
  C3 ComebackMedal: 0.05
  C4 EliteNonMedal: 0.18
  C5 PubertyCollapse: 0.00
  C6 PeakBurnout: 0.03
  C7 ChronicInjuryDrift: 0.01
  C8 SustainableNonElite: 0.01

CorridorClass: C1 (EarlyMedal)
Reason:
- P3Rate_sim ≥ 0.85 and rising
- R_week < 1 with improving trend
- ρ_choice low and falling

W1–W4: StressBuild (variance conversion + travel rehearsal)
W5–W8: PeakWindow (Freeze starts at W7 if event at W11; but here Major is W10 → Freeze starts W7)
W9–W10: Competition + immediate Recovery
W11–W12: Recovery + Base reset

W1:
  LoadTargets: +5–10% (no impact increase if travel rehearsal)
  ImpactTargets: hold baseline
  Sims: 2 (NoiseInjection + StrictTechPanel)
  ChangeWindow: LIMITED (micro tweaks only)
  FenceActions: none
W2:
  LoadTargets: hold
  ImpactTargets: hold
  Sims: 2 (TimePressure + LossAbsorption)
  ChangeWindow: NO new elements
  FenceActions: buffer push (sleep target +1h/night)
W3:
  LoadTargets: +5%
  ImpactTargets: slight increase only if Pain stable
  Sims: 1–2 (TravelFatigue rehearsal)
  ChangeWindow: micro layout timing only
  FenceActions: deload trigger prepared
W4 (Deload week):
  LoadTargets: -10–15%
  ImpactTargets: -10–20%
  Sims: 1 (confidence clean run)
  ChangeWindow: close corridor
  FenceActions: stitch micro-leaks
W5:
  LoadTargets: moderate
  ImpactTargets: moderate (efficiency focus)
  Sims: 1 (Mock competition protocol)
  ChangeWindow: OFF (corridor stabilizing)
W6:
  LoadTargets: moderate
  ImpactTargets: moderate
  Sims: 1 (StrictTechPanel + GOE focus)
  ChangeWindow: OFF
  FenceActions: pre-freeze checklist
W7 (Freeze starts; ρ_choice target ≈0):
  LoadTargets: taper begins
  ImpactTargets: reduce high-risk reps
  Sims: 1 (low variance)
  ChangeWindow: OFF
  FenceActions: sleep priority; media sandbox
W8:
  LoadTargets: taper
  ImpactTargets: minimal high impact
  Sims: 0–1 (confidence reps only)
  FenceActions: travel buffer days locked
W9 (Travel/Acclimation):
  LoadTargets: low
  ImpactTargets: low
  Sims: none
  FenceActions: protect sleep + immune load
W10 (Worlds week):
  Competition protocol only
  FenceActions: pain check daily; no changes
W11–W12 (Recovery):
  LoadTargets: low
  ImpactTargets: minimal
  Actions: physio + identity widening + planning next season

FreezeWindow:
  Status: ACTIVE starting Week 7
  Rules:
    - ρ_choice ≈ 0
    - no new elements
    - no equipment changes unless emergency
    - prioritize sleep + travel buffers

DoNow:
1) Lock corridor: no new content starting now; only repetition stability.
2) Run 2 simulations/week for 3 weeks, then reduce variance in Freeze.
3) Protect the knee: keep ImpactLoadIndex flat; deload in Week 4 mandatory.

Forecast:
  P(P3 at Worlds): 0.68
  P(P0 event before Worlds): 0.06
  BiggestThreat: Travel + sleep erosion
  PrimaryMitigation: Freeze discipline + buffer push

AthleteID: SK-B14
Age: 14
Stage: S3
CurrentPhase: P2 drifting to P1
ZExposure: Z4 (national track pressure)
BaselineJumpSet: {2A, 2Lz, 2F, 2Lo, 2S, some 3T attempts}
BaselineProgram: {SP, FP}
BaselineTraining: {OnIce=high, OffIceStrength=low-med, Plyo=med}

MajorEvent:
  Name: Nationals (junior)
  Date: +18 weeks
  Importance: A
MinorEvents:
  - {Name: Trial, Date: +6 weeks, Importance: B}
TravelProfile:
  TypicalTimeZoneShiftHours: 2
  TravelDaysPerTrip: 2
FreezeWindowWeeks: 4

R_week: 1.12
BufferScore_B: 52
SleepDebtHours: 11
TTC_injury_weeks: 7
TTC_burnout_weeks: 6
ρ_choice: 1.30 (high)
P3Rate_sim: 0.42
PainSignalIndex: {ankle:4, knee:6, hip:3, back:4}
ImpactLoadIndex: 1.25 (rising)
JumpSuccessRate: {2A:0.60, doubles:0.65, 3T attempts:0.25}
UR_RiskRate: 0.35 (high)
FearBindLevel: 6/10
ShameFieldLevel: 7/10
TravelLoadIndex: 0.15 (low)
MediaStressIndex: 0.40 (moderate)
GrowthVolatilityFlag: ON
FreezeCompliance: NA

Trend:
  R_week: [0.98, 1.03, 1.08, 1.12]         (worsening)
  BufferScore_B: [62, 58, 55, 52]          (worsening)
  SleepDebt: [6, 8, 10, 11]                (worsening)
  TTC_injury: [12, 10, 8, 7]               (worsening)
  ρ_choice: [0.9, 1.0, 1.2, 1.3]           (worsening)
  P3Rate_sim: [0.55, 0.50, 0.46, 0.42]     (worsening)
  PainTrend: {knee:[3,4,5,6], ankle:[2,3,3,4], hip:[2,2,3,3], back:[2,3,3,4]}

FenceStatus:
  ActiveTriggers: [TR1, TR2, TR3, TR4, TR5, TR6]
  RequiredActions:
    - TRUNCATE_IMPACT (14–21d) + MEDICAL_CHECK
    - BUFFER_RESET (sleep + schedule)
    - CORRIDOR_FREEZE (6w)
    - STITCHING_PROTOCOL (14d)
    - FEAR_BIND_STITCH (regression ladder)
    - IDENTITY_REPAIR_BLOCK (reduce shame field)
  OverrideMode: TRUE

Hazards:
  h_injury: 0.78 (high)
  h_burnout: 0.81 (high)
  h_shear: 0.74 (high)

PosteriorCorridors π_t:
  C1 EarlyMedal: 0.01
  C2 LateMedal: 0.05
  C3 ComebackMedal: 0.10
  C4 EliteNonMedal: 0.10
  C5 PubertyCollapse: 0.45
  C6 PeakBurnout: 0.12
  C7 ChronicInjuryDrift: 0.14
  C8 SustainableNonElite: 0.03

CorridorClass: C5 (PubertyCollapse risk)
Reason:
- GrowthVolatility ON + UR_RiskRate high
- ShameField/FearBind high
- R_week > 1 trending worse
- TTC_injury < 8 weeks
- ρ_choice overload

W1–W3: InjuryStitch + BufferReset (impact cut)
W4–W6: CorridorFreeze + Technique Re-anchor (low variance)
W7–W9: Gradual Ramp (≤10%/week) + confidence ladder
W10–W12: ProgramBuild-lite + simulations reintroduced (only if pass criteria met)

W1:
  LoadTargets: -30–40% total
  ImpactTargets: -60–80% (no hard landings)
  Sims: 0
  ChangeWindow: OFF
  FenceActions: medical check; sleep target +1.5–2h/night; shame exposure reduction
W2:
  LoadTargets: -20–30%
  ImpactTargets: very low
  Work: edges + spins + steps + mobility + core
  FenceActions: identity repair block; fear-bind clean-hit ladder (very easy)
W3:
  LoadTargets: stabilize low
  ImpactTargets: low
  GateCheck: PainSignalIndex knee ≤3 AND SleepDebt falling
  FenceActions: continue freeze; no new content
W4 (Freeze continues):
  LoadTargets: low-med
  ImpactTargets: low
  Sims: 1 (very low variance confidence run)
  FenceActions: remove 3T attempts entirely; rebuild doubles quality
W5:
  LoadTargets: low-med
  ImpactTargets: low
  Sims: 1 (noise-light)
  FenceActions: if FearBind drops, progress ladder; else stay
W6:
  LoadTargets: med (not high)
  ImpactTargets: low-med
  GateCheck: TTC_injury must be ≥12w before increasing impact
W7 (Ramp begins):
  LoadTargets: +10% (max)
  ImpactTargets: +0–5% only if pain stable
  Sims: 1 (time pressure light)
  FenceActions: maintain ρ_choice near 0
W8:
  LoadTargets: +10% (max)
  ImpactTargets: hold
  Sims: 1 (strict panel callouts but low stakes)
  FenceActions: deload prep if sleep worsens
W9 (Deload):
  LoadTargets: -10–15%
  ImpactTargets: -10–20%
  Sims: 1 (confidence)
W10:
  LoadTargets: med
  ImpactTargets: med only if knee pain ≤2
  Sims: 1–2 if P3Rate_sim ≥0.60
  FenceActions: still no big changes
W11:
  LoadTargets: med
  ImpactTargets: med
  Sims: 2 if stable (noise + loss absorption)
  FenceActions: rebuild P3Rate_sim slowly
W12:
  Review:
    - if R_week <1 AND TTC_injury ≥16w AND P3Rate_sim ≥0.65:
        re-enter normal ProgramBuild
    - else:
        extend freeze + stitching

FreezeWindow:
  Status: ACTIVE (corridor freeze) for 6 weeks
  Rules:
    - ρ_choice ≈ 0
    - remove high-risk attempts (e.g., 3T)
    - prioritize sleep + pain resolution
    - rebuild doubles with high GOE

DoNow:
1) Immediate impact truncation + knee medical check; stop hard landings now.
2) Corridor freeze for 6 weeks: remove all new content and risky attempts.
3) Buffer reset + shame reduction: sleep restoration + reduce comparison exposure + identity repair block.

Forecast:
  P(P0 event before Nationals) drops from ~0.40 → ~0.18
  P(return to stable P2) rises from ~0.30 → ~0.60
  P(P3 at Nationals) remains low this cycle (~0.10–0.20), but corridor survival is the win.
  BiggestThreat: ignoring TR triggers (continuing impact + sleep debt)
  PrimaryMitigation: truncation + freeze + stitching