Z5.ShockRouter + BufferPolicy Pack — v1.0 (Almost-Code)

ID: Z5_SHOCK_ROUTER_BUFFER_POLICY_PACK_v1_0
Layer: Z5 (CountryOS) with pointers to Z6 registry + Z3 CityERCO installs
Modules: ERCO v1.0 + RECL v1.0 + FenceOS interlock
Depends on: UOS_THRESHOLD_SPEC_v1_0, UOS_PROPAGATION_MAP_v1_0, RECL_SCHEMA_v1_0, Z5Z5_COUNTRY_BIND_LAYER_v1_0
Status: LOCKED
Purpose: When multiple coupled countries drift into P2/P3, this pack specifies:

how to detect multi-node systemic risk,
how to route shocks (reduce cascade),
how to allocate buffers (protect + rebuild),
how to truncate accelerators (σ clamp, κ dampening),
without inventing new collapse modes.

0) Definition Lock

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DEFLOCK.Z5.SHOCKROUTER:
ShockRouter := ERCO decision layer that routes loads/repairs across coupled countries to prevent cascade.
BufferPolicy := rules for building/spending/protecting buffers at Z5.
Not := geopolitical prediction engine or war forecast.
Is := generic control primitive for systemic shocks (supply/finance/energy/health).

Collapse modes remain {M1,M2,M3}.

			
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# 1) Inputs / Outputs

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INPUTS:

RECL graph at Z5: Nodes (CountryOS) + Binds (E_dep/E_shock/…)
Per-country sensors:
ρ_i, R_i, TTC_i, T_repair_i, B_i, κ_eff_i, ρσ_i, p95 variance
Bind weights w_ij and types + tags (FIN/ENRG/SUPPLY/TECH/MIGR/SEC/MULTI)

OUTPUTS:

RoutePlan:
reroute edges (temporary decoupling / alternate corridors) [conceptual]
AllocationPlan:
allocate buffers/repair to the bottleneck nodes
FenceActions:
truncation actions (σ clamp, κ dampening, stop accelerators)
RetestSchedule:
cadence escalation and de-escalation rules

			
---
# 2) Systemic Risk Detectors (Multi-node triggers)
## 2.1 Cluster detector (how many nodes are in trouble)

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DETECT.CLUSTER:
Let P2_set = { i | P_i ∈ {P2,P3} }
Let K = |P2_set|

TRIGGER_CLUSTER if:
K ≥ K* # e.g., 3 in a tightly coupled cluster
OR
Σ_i κ_eff(i) over P2_set ≥ κ* # heavy coupling mass in danger

## 2.2 Contagion slope detector (fast cascade warning)

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DETECT.SLOPE:
For each node i:
dρ_i/dt, dR_i/dt, dTTC_i/dt

TRIGGER_SLOPE if:
median(dρ/dt) > 0 AND median(dR/dt) < 0 across P2_set
OR
min(TTC_i) ≤ min(T_repair_i) across the cluster

## 2.3 Cross-edge amplification detector (κ spike)

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DETECT.KAPPA_SPIKE:
κ_cluster := sum of w_ij over edges among P2_set
TRIGGER_KAPPA if:
κ_cluster > κ_cluster*

			
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# 3) Priority Index (What to save first)
> ERCO needs a deterministic ordering.

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PRIORITY_INDEX for node i:
PI_i = α(1/TTC_i) + βmax(0,ρ_i-1) + γmax(0,1-R_i) + δκ_eff_i + ε*max(0,ρσ_i-1)

Interpretation:
higher PI = more urgent to stabilise (prevents cascade)

			
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# 4) RoutePlan (κ dampening + alternate corridors)
## 4.1 Temporary decoupling (reduce cascade probability)

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ROUTE.DECouple:
For edges (i→j) with high w_ij where i ∈ P2_set:
If edge is NON-CORE tag (TECH/MIGR optional) during shock window:
reduce effective w_ij temporarily (κ dampening)
If edge is CORE (ENRG/SUPPLY/FIN/MULTI):
do not cut; instead route buffers to stabilize i

## 4.2 Corridor reroute (conceptual)

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ROUTE.REROUTE:
If a CORE dependency edge i→j is causing TTC collapse:
search for alternate paths p (k→j) where k is stable (P1/P2-safe)
increase weight on alternate path (conceptual “corridor activation”)
decrease load passing through i (relieve bottleneck)

			
(Exact routing mechanism can be implemented later; the control grammar is what matters.)
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# 5) BufferPolicy (Build / Protect / Spend Rules)
## 5.1 Buffer types at Z5

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BUFFERS.Z5:
B_fin := fiscal/financial reserves
B_enrg := energy reserves / capacity slack
B_food := food supply slack
B_hlth := health system surge capacity
B_trans := logistics redundancy
B_trust := institutional legitimacy buffer (proxy)

## 5.2 Spend rule (only under Fence trigger or P3)

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BUFFER.SPEND_RULE:
Spend buffers if:
TTC_i ≤ T_repair_i
OR P_i = P3
OR cluster trigger active AND PI_i among top N

Spend order (generic):
– buffers that extend TTC fastest for core lanes (ENRG/HLTH/SUPPLY/FIN)

## 5.3 Rebuild rule (mandatory after stabilization)

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BUFFER.REBUILD_RULE:
After stabilization (2 cycles with ρ≤1 and R≥1):
allocate fixed fraction to rebuild depleted buffers first
Else:
system stays brittle and re-enters P2 on next shock

## 5.4 Protect rule (avoid self-inflicted brittleness)

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BUFFER.PROTECT_RULE:
Never spend below B_min in stable times.
If B_i < B_min:
freeze expansion initiatives (σ clamp)
prioritize buffer rebuild over growth

			
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# 6) σ Clamp (Stop Accelerator Actions)

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SIGMA.CLAMP:
If ρσ_i > 1 OR cluster trigger active:
enforce FreezeWindow at Z5:
– pause non-core reforms
– reduce policy churn / initiative injection into operators
– simplify execution
Allow SandboxWindow only when:
ρσ_i ≤ 1 for 2 cycles AND buffers trending positive

			
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# 7) FenceOS Interlock (Cluster-level Fence)

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FENCE.CLUSTER:
Trigger if:
TRIGGER_CLUSTER OR TRIGGER_SLOPE OR TRIGGER_KAPPA

TRUNCATE (cluster-level):
– clamp σ across affected nodes
– dampen κ on non-core edges among P2_set
– halt accelerators that increase coordination load

STITCH (cluster-level):
– route repair to top PI_i nodes
– activate alternate corridors where possible
– rebuild buffers after stabilization

			
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# 8) Minimal Failure Trace (Z5 systemic cascade)

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FAILURE_TRACE.Z5:
multiple nodes enter P2 → κ_cluster high → TTC shrinks across core lanes →
buffers spent without rebuild → brittleness rises → next shock causes M3 fast attrition cascade

			
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# 9) Minimal Repair Trace (Z5 stabilization loop)

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REPAIR_TRACE.Z5:
detect cluster → clamp σ → dampen κ (non-core) → route buffers to top PI nodes →
restore ρ≤1 and R≥1 for 2 cycles → mandatory buffer rebuild → de-escalate cadence

			
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# 10) Drop-in Insert Block (for GlobalPack runtime pages)

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Z5.SHOCKROUTER.INSERT.MIN:
Z5 ShockRouter detects P2/P3 clusters via {K, κ_cluster, TTC vs T_repair}.
It ranks nodes by PI and routes buffers/repairs to prevent κ-amplified cascades.
It clamps σ (policy churn) and dampens κ on non-core edges during shock windows.
After stabilization, buffers must rebuild or brittleness persists.
“`

Z5.ShockRouter + BufferPolicy Pack — v1.0 (Almost-Code)

0) Definition Lock

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